Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[destruction92]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

Now, Hurricane Betsy was one for the ages.
The first storm I really tracked; as a little kid!!!

Even Betsy was not that far East before coming to Key Largo.

If you have to pull up a map of Hurricane Betsy to find an example of an odd occurence for South Florida, then you are REALLY digging deep.

Which is exactly my point.

It would take a HIGHLY irregular system to threaten South Flroida as a Hurricane from 22N / 56W.

Look at this track: http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

Yeah, not a hurricane, but still...I'm sure there were people at the time before Hurricane Betsy that never anticipated Betsy to take such a track because there were no prior similar tracks in recorded history...

Maybe this hurricane season will introduce a few "firsts" in history...

You know, history does not have to repeat itself in the future....the future can just as well be filled with the unpredictable and unexpected.

Just because something has not happened, does not mean that it will never happen.

[Evil Jeremy]

The models shouldnt completly be trusted at this time with this thing barely orginized. Still, it bears watching.

btw, since this was declared an Invest, this topic Is getting more than the one for Dean.

[JPmia]

well those models don't mean a hill of beans until we find a LLC to track....you can see that some are initializing in separate locations....getting interesting though....keep looking for the LLC folks and then the fun really begins!

But the scary thing is the following:

- models are pointing in the general direction of South Florida.
- climatology supports this for this time of year
- the upper air environment is becoming more favorable for development
- it has plenty of warm water out ahead of it
-many monster storms have developed in the area this thing is moving into

Yeah i agree, which is why i am watching this sucker like a hawk! You raise good points for development of this blob.

[Steve]

>>Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

Then don't come on its thread. If it's not a priority, then don't make it one.

Steve

[Blown Away]

FCI how about this track that hit South Florida in 1929. Look how north it got first before bending west.

Find me on that was at 22 and as far east as 56!!

Lucky to find a named storm that formed and was named near 22N/56W that affected SFL. However, maybe some of the tracks, like the 1929, were LLC's that started near 22N/56W and did not develop/get named until around 22N/65W then came to SFL. If 92L becomes a TD out there, I give it little chance of affecting SFL, if it stays near 22N and moves generally W and develops near 65-70W then we might have trouble, IMO.

[gatorcane]

one thing is for sure, it hasn't organized much today...yet...that is good news.

[NONAME]

>>Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

Then don't come on its thread. If it's not a priority, then don't make it one.

Steve

Ya but the thing is this has a chance of affecting the US and dean doesn't.

[RL3AO]

one thing is for sure, it hasn't organized much today...yet...that is good news.

Nothing EVER develops.

[gtalum]

...bears watching...

You mean like these bears?

[gtsmith]

anyone notice on the recent sat loop that the area of convection right at 20N-50W is hardly even moving? just keeps firing convection over that spot

[tolakram]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&PROD=vis

If you ignore the blurry images you can see how they are focussed in on the rotation.

[gatorcane]

CMC has backed way off on this system...but still moves it into South Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

[mutley]

...bears watching...

You mean like these bears?

Or more like these?

[ronjon]

From HPC Afternoon Disc:

...EASTERN UNITED STATES...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS DAY 7. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WRINGING OUT A GOOD BIT OF RAIN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

[mutley]

From HPC Afternoon Disc:

...EASTERN UNITED STATES...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS DAY 7. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WRINGING OUT A GOOD BIT OF RAIN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

If it's just rain, that would be really great.

[Blown Away]

The models shouldnt completly be trusted at this time with this thing barely orginized. Still, it bears watching.

btw, since this was declared an Invest, this topic Is getting more than the one for Dean.

There is not much to say, little doubt w/ the track and the intensity. Dean is amazing and is on a track to retirement. Bad situation, little to debate w/ Dean.

[rockyman]

CMC has backed way off on this system...but still moves it into South Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

yep...and with some ridging to the north still in place...storm takes an eery Katrina-esque track toward NOLA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[MWatkins]

Dean analysis is tough because there is really nothing other than satellite imagery to comment on...

I mean sure we could post 100 pages of..."wow, still looks like a cat 5...and it's still moving west"...but...now the only real information is going to come from recon.

On the other hand...Dean can tell us something about 92L.

Systems that started where Dean began almost never run across Mexico and not impact the US or recurve. The high to the north is that strong.

The extension of that same high is what is going to drive whatever develops from 92L westward for a long time. Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean its not going to happen.

MW

[gatorcane]

Dean analysis is tough because there is really nothing other than satellite imagery to comment on...

I mean sure we could post 100 pages of..."wow, still looks like a cat 5...and it's still moving west"...but...now the only real information is going to come from recon.

On the other hand...Dean can tell us something about 92L.

Systems that started where Dean began almost never run across Mexico and not impact the US or recurve. The high to the north is that strong.

The extension of that same high is what is going to drive whatever develops from 92L westward for a long time. Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean its not going to happen.

MW

Bingo. That high is so strong who would have thought that Dean would not somehow impact the US? The US got really lucky on this one in my opinion. Just look at it now. Dean continues moving West still. Who would have thought it may barely get into the BOC?

That same High could be a problem for the US if 92L gets going

[Stormcenter]

CMC has backed way off on this system...but still moves it into South Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

yep...and with some ridging to the north still in place...storm takes an eery Katrina-esque track toward NOLA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

But as a much weaker system probably encountering strong shear.