TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[aguaviva]

I am utterly amazed at the tenacity of this system. Again, makes you wonder what it will do intensity wise when it gets out of the shear.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
You still can see low level cloud spiral towards the center.

[x-y-no]

Don't put words in my mouth - I never said "death knell". This OB appeared to me to be larger than the one's I've been observing, having blown through the entire western quadrant. That's going to do two things - disturb the low level vorticity field and stabilize the boundary layer...at least temporarily. All I said was that the tone of TCD would change if the trend continues.

OK, sorry if I misunderstood you.

Certainly I don't expect any quick return to TS status, but it looks to me like there's enough of that pulsing convection happening reasonably close to the center to maintain a TD. So long as that's the case, there remains a possibility of intensification later.

And I wish it would start heading north already ...

[bvigal]

Canefreak,i don't see any circulation,but as the time goes,i'am more and more certain that the Leeward will recieved a lot of rain,with what may become a Stroooonggggg Twave,anyway.....

Yeah yeah Huc; based on this trend, that seems very credible by time goes...the circulation maybe opened steadily (should it verifies because its'still a tenacious TD!!!)...but if this continues we can expect copious amounts of rain with big thunderstorms churning near all the Leewards tonight or early tommorow morning...given the weak winds on the area.... providing developpement of tstorms cells!

Regardless whether Ingrid holds together, I think you are correct about some rain to be expected. Run this water vapor loop, and see the squeeze play taking place - moisture over Caribbean moving East, moisture around Ingrid spreading West. Intersection: Northern Leewards. Also interesting, check out last 3 frames of divergence,
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

One unknown element in all his, Soufriere in Montserrat is spewing ash today (1st time since either May or June they've issued an aviation advisory, can't remember exactly). A big bunch of cold rain on that dome might just cause another eruption.

[CrazyC83]

T3.0 from SSD and T3.1 from CIMSS - that seems to suggest we have Tropical Storm Ingrid once again, and probably somewhere around 45 knots...

[cycloneye]

A more closer view.

['CaneFreak]

T3.0 from SSD and T3.1 from CIMSS - that seems to suggest we have Tropical Storm Ingrid once again, and probably somewhere around 45 knots...

They have been at 3.0. Again Dvorak is Not an Official Intensity Estimate.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 18:45 UTC

[cycloneye]

Canefreak,i don't see any circulation,but as the time goes,i'am more and more certain that the Leeward will recieved a lot of rain,with what may become a Stroooonggggg Twave,anyway.....

Yeah yeah Huc; based on this trend, that seems very credible by time goes...the circulation maybe opened steadily (should it verifies because its'still a tenacious TD!!!)...but if this continues we can expect copious amounts of rain with big thunderstorms churning near all the Leewards tonight or early tommorow morning...given the weak winds on the area.... providing developpement of tstorms cells!

Regardless whether Ingrid holds together, I think you are correct about some rain to be expected. Run this water vapor loop, and see the squeeze play taking place - moisture over Caribbean moving East, moisture around Ingrid spreading West. Intersection: Northern Leewards. Also interesting, check out last 3 frames of divergence,
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

One unknown element in all his, Soufriere in Montserrat is spewing ash today (1st time since either May or June they've issued an aviation advisory, can't remember exactly). A big bunch of cold rain on that dome might just cause another eruption.

Bvigal,there is the ash plume from Soufriere.

[x-y-no]

T3.0 from SSD and T3.1 from CIMSS - that seems to suggest we have Tropical Storm Ingrid once again, and probably somewhere around 45 knots...

Heh ... absolutely not.

It's hanging on as a TD, but that's all.

[Sanibel]

The TUTT to the west is tightening up. Ingrid's spiral looks to be weakening due to shear blowing the storm down. The sheared system still supports red IR.

That steering flow chart actually backs NHC because it shows the system moving towards the weakness between the two Highs. Just because the chart has wind bars showing a link between the two Highs doesn't mean the system won't plow right through them. That is why NHC tracks it this way.

[wxman57]

Looks like an outflow boundary moving out to the west ahead of Ingrid. Definitely appears more like a wave. I don't see much of a circulation left. Looking for Invest 93L in the central Caribbean soon...

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 19:15 UTC

[Brent]

What happened? It was looking really good 4 hours ago and now it looks like a wave. Blah.

[cycloneye]

Brent,look at that outflow boundarie to the west.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Look at 18:45 UTC on the IR, you can see Ingrid's low pressure symbol @17.3N/57.8W. She might be telling us she is still here.

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/goes.htm : wide view of the system...
Convection on the increase churning near Antigua and Guadeloupe...
Latest 3 PM : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Close view:
http://www.stormcarib.com/mysat.cgi

[Gustywind]

Canefreak,i don't see any circulation,but as the time goes,i'am more and more certain that the Leeward will recieved a lot of rain,with what may become a Stroooonggggg Twave,anyway.....

Yeah yeah Huc; based on this trend, that seems very credible by time goes...the circulation maybe opened steadily (should it verifies because its'still a tenacious TD!!!)...but if this continues we can expect copious amounts of rain with big thunderstorms churning near all the Leewards tonight or early tommorow morning...given the weak winds on the area.... providing developpement of tstorms cells!

Regardless whether Ingrid holds together, I think you are correct about some rain to be expected. Run this water vapor loop, and see the squeeze play taking place - moisture over Caribbean moving East, moisture around Ingrid spreading West. Intersection: Northern Leewards. Also interesting, check out last 3 frames of divergence,
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

One unknown element in all his, Soufriere in Montserrat is spewing ash today (1st time since either May or June they've issued an aviation advisory, can't remember exactly). A big bunch of cold rain on that dome might just cause another eruption.

Yeahhh nice post, good analysis Bvigal agree with you, we wil see what will bring this ash...but very interressing synopsis down the road....

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 19:45 UTC

[Gustywind]

At 4 pm winds from NE 7 kts pressure down to 1011 mb with 88% relative humidity at Raizet Guadeloupe
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html