TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

['CaneFreak]

:uarrow: Read post above yours.

I know it says 2:05 PM cycloneye but I think I remember reading this a few hours ago. I think somebody got lazy and didnt feel like changing it for the 2:05 update.

[HUC]

Canefreak,i don't see any circulation,but as the time goes,i'am more and more certain that the Leeward will recieved a lot of rain,with what may become a Stroooonggggg Twave,anyway.....

['CaneFreak]

UNDER WHAT CONVECTION? POINT OUT SOME COORDINATES. All I see are upper level clouds streaming off to the northeast. There are very few low-level clouds that I see.

[SouthFloridawx]

If this were to become a wave, would that support a more westward track?

My sources say, "Yes".

[Gustywind]

Just an observation:have you seen that there are 5 areas of weather over the Atlantic basin,and the east Carribean, including Ingrid.The convection of all of them 5 are blown to the east or Ese by the prevailing upper level winds...Very clear on the loops;and very interesting to look at!!!!
In my location,winds always W,light(that's also is in phase with the sea breeze,in case of light wind pattern...)
Yeah Huc very nice analysis ! Winds now NNW(330°) 10 kt at the airport station Raizet... pressure down 1012 mb this hour ( 1013 mb previously at 1pm).

[Typhoon_Willie]

If it were to become a wave then west is the usual track...but as weak as this system is a westward track may very well be possible!

[AJC3]

I seriously think you will see a change in the tone of the 5PM TCD if the present trend continues. TD Ingrid's vort structure appears to have deteriorated quite a bit in the last few hours...capped off by that large outflow boundary that just blew through it's entire western semicircle. It will be interesting to see what the circulation looks like once that blowoff over the presumed center thins out and dissipates.

['CaneFreak]

I seriously think you will see a change in the tone of the 5PM TCD if the present trend continues. TD Ingrid's vort structure appears to have deteriorated quite a bit in the last few hours...capped off by that large outflow boundary that just blew through it's entire western semicircle. It will be interesting to see what the circulation looks like once that blowoff over the presumed center thins out and dissipates.

Thank you. They thought I was crazy.

[x-y-no]

Ok, but that was three hours ago. The visible shot shows that it looks even worse than 3 hours ago; lets face it, it looked ok a few hours ago before the westerly winds kicked back in again and now it looks worse than ever before. Can you find me a LLC? I would sure appreciate it.

The LLC is a bit east of the latest little burst of convection - kind of elongated, I think, but somewhere around 17N 58.5W.

Ingrid doesn't look great but definitely better than yesterday. Convection is pulsing, but it's doing it in the vicinity of the center (even, as just now, west of the center.)

Motion looks due west to me for now. Still awaiting the much heralded northward turn.

[cycloneye]

16/1745 UTC 17.1N 57.1W T3.0/3.0 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Latest position from SSD.

['CaneFreak]

Ok, but that was three hours ago. The visible shot shows that it looks even worse than 3 hours ago; lets face it, it looked ok a few hours ago before the westerly winds kicked back in again and now it looks worse than ever before. Can you find me a LLC? I would sure appreciate it.

The LLC is a bit east of the latest little burst of convection - kind of elongated, I think, but somewhere around 17N 58.5W.

Ingrid doesn't look great but definitely better than yesterday. Convection is pulsing, but it's doing it in the vicinity of the canter (even, as just now, west of the center.

Motion looks due west to me for now. Still awaiting the much heralded northward turn.

Thanks very much. I see that center now. Looks terrible, maybe pulsating now but so do most tropical depressions. The northward turn is on the way. See SouthFloridaWx's map on this same page above. There is a HUGE gap in the low level steering flow around 70 to 75 West and that area is headed east. I expect this to turn the cyclone northward in about 3 to 4 days exactly the way that MOST of the models show it doing.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 18:15 UTC

[x-y-no]

I seriously think you will see a change in the tone of the 5PM TCD if the present trend continues. TD Ingrid's vort structure appears to have deteriorated quite a bit in the last few hours...capped off by that large outflow boundary that just blew through it's entire western semicircle. It will be interesting to see what the circulation looks like once that blowoff over the presumed center thins out and dissipates.

It's been spitting out outflow boundaries several times a day for days now ... don't know why this one should be any more of a death knell than the others.

[bvigal]

:uarrow: Read post above yours.

I know it says 2:05 PM cycloneye but I think I remember reading this a few hours ago. I think somebody got lazy and didnt feel like changing it for the 2:05 update.

The satellite imagery for the discussion is through 17:15z (1:15pmEDT), that's the last shot available before 2pm (1:45wouldn't be ready yet). I don't think anyone at NHC is being "lazy" about Ingrid, since some islands are now back in the possible track "cone".

[Gustywind]

Canefreak,i don't see any circulation,but as the time goes,i'am more and more certain that the Leeward will recieved a lot of rain,with what may become a Stroooonggggg Twave,anyway.....

Yeah yeah Huc; based on this trend, that seems very credible by time goes...the circulation maybe opened steadily (should it verifies because its'still a tenacious TD!!!)...but if this continues we can expect copious amounts of rain with big thunderstorms churning near all the Leewards tonight or early tommorow morning...given the weak winds on the area.... providing developpement of tstorms cells!

[AJC3]

I seriously think you will see a change in the tone of the 5PM TCD if the present trend continues. TD Ingrid's vort structure appears to have deteriorated quite a bit in the last few hours...capped off by that large outflow boundary that just blew through it's entire western semicircle. It will be interesting to see what the circulation looks like once that blowoff over the presumed center thins out and dissipates.

It's been spitting out outflow boundaries several times a day for days now ... don't know why this one should be any more of a death knell than the others.

Don't put words in my mouth - I never said "death knell". This OB appeared to me to be larger than the one's I've been observing, having blown through the entire western quadrant. That's going to do two things - disturb the low level vorticity field and stabilize the boundary layer...at least temporarily. All I said was that the tone of TCD would change if the trend continues.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am seeing a broad and elongated circulation, reverting back to a tropical wave. Here is a very crude drawing, of what I'm seeing.
http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?76ca61e311.gif
Until this trough pulls out, I wouldn't look for any additional development from this system.

http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?8568dd7910.jpg

[Gustywind]

Latest 2 PM
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[HUC]

Look at the buoy 41100 located at 16°N 58°W :at 2pm local time,the winds from WSW 21kts...pressure 29.81 inch...Something have passed near by???

[fci]

People quibbling over a very disorganized system that the NHC gave last rites to a couple of advisories ago and now merely maintains as a weak TD. People were actually asking for TS Watches and Warnings last night!

Makes for rather entertaining reading as people rationalize how it will regenerate and prove most of the experts wrong.

Think I'll watch Football or NASCAR and check back later to see if it has officially died yet