TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[JonathanBelles]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.

GAH, the Herbert box only works when it is a major, not a TD. even if this was a major, the Herbert Box doesnt work 100% of the time.

[Gustywind]

Latest at 1pm...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Absolutely Huc, agree with you on the same scenario...moreover it seems that convection bursting and trying to expand to the south and to the west side approaching 16°N...not good news for all the islands beetween Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards islands...we should continue to closely monitor this system in the next few hours ...

[skufful]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.

Personally, I think the hebert box is the most overblown theory I've heard, and btw, I think Ingrid looks horrible compared to yesterday.

[HUC]

Just an observation:have you seen that there are 5 areas of weather over the Atlantic basin,and the east Carribean, including Ingrid.The convection of all of them 5 are blown to the east or Ese by the prevailing upper level winds...Very clear on the loops;and very interesting to look at!!!!
In my location,winds always W,light(that's also is in phase with the sea breeze,in case of light wind pattern...)

[RL3AO]

A depression struggling with high shear passing through the Herbert box is useless for predicting a track.

[HURAKAN]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.

Personally, I think the hebert box is the most overblown theory I've heard, and btw, I think Ingrid looks horrible compared to yesterday.

20070915.1715


20070916.1715

[jaxfladude]

[HUC]

Yes gustywind,the disturbance is perhaps loosing it's low circulation,but the convection may blown up now anywhere,and in the sout like now!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se1vs.html

Clouds from Ingrid's circulation moving over the Leeward Islands.

['CaneFreak]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I dont know what you are looking at but I am looking at the final stages in the life of one sheared-to- bits Ingrid. It was nice knowing you Ingrid!!! Bon voyage!!!

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 17:45 UTC

[Blown Away]

Does anybody see the LLC anymore?

[miamicanes177]

I dont know what you are looking at but I am looking at the final stages in the life of one sheared-to- bits Ingrid. It was nice knowing you Ingrid!!! Bon voyage!!!

Perhaps you need to read the NHC discussion from expert forecaster Pasch. In the 10am NHC discussion, Pasch writes:

"FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING."

[SouthFloridawx]

Ingrid will be passing through a Herbert Box. South Florida must pay extremely close attention to Ingrid. Many were calling for "a dagger through the heart" of Ingrid on sunday. That has not occured. In fact, it now looks better than it did on saturday! Careful monitoring of this developing situation is needed over the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I dont know what you are looking at but I am looking at the final stages in the life of one sheared-to- bits Ingrid. It was nice knowing you Ingrid!!! Bon voyage!!!

Perhaps when it's retrograded back to a wave, we'll see it blow up further down the line. Still quite a bit of convection going on there... I hope to at least see some rain, a few days down the road.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM Special Feature Discussion by TPC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 57.9W...OR
ABOUT 260 NM/415 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON 16/1500 UTC.
INGRID IS MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
INGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LESS DISORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO
LONGER EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

['CaneFreak]

I dont know what you are looking at but I am looking at the final stages in the life of one sheared-to- bits Ingrid. It was nice knowing you Ingrid!!! Bon voyage!!!

Perhaps you need to read the NHC discussion from expert forecaster Pasch. In the 10am NHC discussion, Pasch writes:

"FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING."

Ok, but that was three hours ago. The visible shot shows that it looks even worse than 3 hours ago; lets face it, it looked ok a few hours ago before the westerly winds kicked back in again and now it looks worse than ever before. Can you find me a LLC? I would sure appreciate it.

[cycloneye]

Read post above yours.

[Chacor]

The TWD is old. Remember TWDs are based on old information (in this case, 1200z sfc analysis and sat imagery through 1715z).

[fasterdisaster]

I dont know what you are looking at but I am looking at the final stages in the life of one sheared-to- bits Ingrid. It was nice knowing you Ingrid!!! Bon voyage!!!

Perhaps you need to read the NHC discussion from expert forecaster Pasch. In the 10am NHC discussion, Pasch writes:

"FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING."

Ok, but that was three hours ago. The visible shot shows that it looks even worse than 3 hours ago; lets face it, it looked ok a few hours ago before the westerly winds kicked back in again and now it looks worse than ever before. Can you find me a LLC? I would sure appreciate it.

Of course we can't find you the LLC. IT'S UNDER THE CONVECTION. That's exactly what looks so great about its appearance. And frankly I have no clue what you are talking about saying it looks worse than ever. That's just simply not true.

[RL3AO]

If this were to become a wave, would that support a more westward track?