EX INVEST 94L Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So this should not be a threat to central FL it should
go west or south? I would really like to know this please.
Thanks.

[wxman57]

People 95L(tropical storm) was likely the event for at least the next 5 days,. I'm just going to declare this dead now.


http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/itsdeadjim.jpg

Bones doesn't like impostors. He said that although development isn't likely in the next 2-3 (or maybe 4-5 days), the western Caribbean will be one place to keep an eye on over the next week or two.

['CaneFreak]

People 95L(tropical storm) was likely the event for at least the next 5 days,. I'm just going to declare this dead now.


http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/itsdeadjim.jpg

Bones doesn't like impostors. He said that although development isn't likely in the next 2-3 (or maybe 4-5 days), the western Caribbean will be one place to keep an eye on over the next week or two.

Boy, if it weren't for Bones this season to bring me the occasional laugh, I think I might have gone crazy. LOL. Did you hear that Bones? Thats right. YOU ARE THE MAN. I agree with you though 57, I think this will be the hotbed in the tropics for the next several days. I imagine that something would have to pop at some point with pressures as low as they are down there.

['CaneFreak]

if anything were to form, it may be near eastern Cuba. The models are developing a weak area of low-pressure there AND there is some good surface convergence there

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

I agree totally with that statement. That would definitely follow all the guidelines of TC formation. Is there any way to predict with skill what the surface convergence might be this time tomorrow or next week for that matter? Just curious.

[Derek Ortt]

it is a smaller scale feature; thus, the globals are probably el stinko in predicting precise areas of convergence

[hurricanetrack]

Well, the good news there is that if this were to blow up near eastern Cuba it would likely be shown the door in to the western Atlantic. Maybe a brief stop-over in the Bahamas but little threat to the United States.

How did we get so lucky for two years in a row when the major hurricane landfall probability from CSU was so high? I guess that sometimes the lesser percent wins out- even if it is over and over again.

On the other hand, I believe it was seven majors to HIT the U.S. from 2004 through 2005. So that's lop-sided too...stats have to work out somehow...

[BigA]

I am going to admit that I am without a great logical reason, but I feel that something is going to come out of the area between the Yucatan and Cuba in the next week. It may be very slow to develop, but I tend to like Wxman57's idea that something may happen down the road. There are low pressures, and favorable winds, and climatological support. This doesnt preclude something developing near Eastern Cuba, though.

I think we will get one strong TS or hurricane out of the Western Caribbean before October is through, but this is just my thought.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the major pattern change coming across the eastern U.S. (and Gulf of Mexico) in 3-4 days. Deep trof digs down and jet stream drops to northern Gulf. That ought to keep anything that develops in the Caribbean (or near Cuba) away from the U.S. This could be the beginning of the end for the Gulf coast threat in 2007.

[BigA]

Take a look at the major pattern change coming across the eastern U.S. (and Gulf of Mexico) in 3-4 days. Deep trof digs down and jet stream drops to northern Gulf. That ought to keep anything that develops in the Caribbean (or near Cuba) away from the U.S. This could be the beginning of the end for the Gulf coast threat in 2007.

If something developed farther west in the Caribbean, between the Caymans and the Yucatan, would the trough pick it up and send it toward Florida, or would it just kill it or shunt it to the east?

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, by all means bring on the CAA and put an end to this endless string of invests that lead to nothing more than dozens of pages on a message board with people stuck in the same endless cycle of "will it or won't it".

Looking forward to a fresh 2008 season with a fading La Nina. That ought to be an interesting season. When was the last one of those?

[BigA]

Yes, by all means bring on the CAA and put an end to this endless string of invests that lead to nothing more than dozens of pages on a message board with people stuck in the same endless cycle of "will it or won't it".

Looking forward to a fresh 2008 season with a fading La Nina. That ought to be an interesting season. When was the last one of those?

Recent years with fading La Ninas in : 1962, 1968, 1976, 1985, 1989, 2000. Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

What is CAA?

I still think it is premature to say definitively that there wont be one more decent system from the Caribbean.

[hurricanetrack]

I agree and I am not saying anything definite. I know better- but the odds are really starting to shift more in our favor- our meaning most people who live in the western Basin.

CAA is cold air advection. Once that settles in with dense, dry air, the show is all but over.

We should have some really nice Nor'easters this winter. That was true last year- even before the season was over we had a whopper of one around November 20. Looked like a hurricane hit the Outer Banks of NC.

[GeneratorPower]

it is a smaller scale feature; thus, the globals are probably el stinko in predicting precise areas of convergence

Derek Ortt: Forecasting almost 100% in English, with just a little "spanish lingo".

[Vortex]

00Z BAM/LBAR/OTHERS


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Vortex]

00Z HWRF

Major cane over western cuba...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

We have some heavy convection now building over the 1005 mb low at 18N-84.5W. Upper level winds are extremely light with strong northerly flow aiding convergence from the west. Both the 00Z GFDL and HWRF bring the system to hurricane strength in the next two days. The table appears set now for tropical cyclone development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

5:30 AM TWO

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


Notice that they dont say now broad low pressure.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL Animation

It has a hurricane before it goes into Yucatan.Different track from HWRF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking as good as it ever has, and it is nowhere near being over land, IMHO.