INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[chadtm80]

['CaneFreak]

Yep...exactly..no surprise....heading southwest and into ole Mexico. Steering flow has been that way all year. Of course, its not over until the fat lady sings. Things in the atmosphere do change and all. Good point though.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The NWS discussion out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't even mention 92L.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPOSED WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR IT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
TURN MORE WEST NORTHWEST OVER NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SINCE
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND THE RESULTING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG.

.LONG TERM...
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TX AND LA BORDER
ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS IN RESPONSE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CO ROCKIES.
THIS WILL BRING THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
EAST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF STATES BY TUESDAY
AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY.

Should they? Just asking. This thing is headed southwest.

I THINK THERE TALKING ABOUT 90L

[chadtm80]

[Stormcenter]

Not sounding as bullish as before with 92L

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.

[fci]

According to Mia NWS we won't even get a shower out of 92L because it will be too far south. Rain chance is only 40%.

Don't bet on it..........

If this tracks to the south of the peninisula we WON'T get rain here.
At least not in Palm Beach County.
Seen it many times before.

[fci]

Well, Inez '66 featured a vaguely similar upper-air pattern in early October, too. It took an unusual WSW movement across the FL Keys; it eventually hit mainland Mexico.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1966/INEZ/track.gif

92L is initializing almost 8-10 degrees EAST of where Inez was.
I don't really see the relationship between the two.

[Blown Away]

This morning the whole convection envelope was anti cyclonic now it is cyclonic, if that makes sense. Looks like the convection envelope is moving slowly S. Not sure how they get a broad circulation center near 26.9N/73.1W.

[cycloneye]

[bocadude86]

Dont really think this will consolidate as far north as 28 North

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA recon may also be flying this starting tomorrow

[HURRICANELONNY]

We all look at these models like that is what is going to happen. Until a depression/storm develops. These models to me atleast. Have no value.

[Nimbus]

Cute little naked swirl racing WNW near 28N 72W. I don't see any definate LLC other than that yet. If this mess doesn't wrap up a little tighter we could get some heavy rains in Florida from the shear.

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS run has started to roll.This post will be used to post all the timeframes.That will not cause me to post different posts for every timeframe. So stay tuned to this post as the run is posted.

18z GFs at 24 Hours

18z GFS at 36 Hours

18z GFS at 48 Hours Getting Close to North Coast of Haiti

18z GFS at 66 Hours Getting Close to Northern Cuba Coast

18z GFS at 78 Hours Crossing Cuba

18Z GFS at 90 Hours Just South of Cuba

18z GFS at 108 Hours Over Northwestern part of Cuba

18z GFS at 120 Hours In Open Gulf Waters.Here will be the key if it is picked up by front or not.

18z GFS at 138 Hours Still moving slowly North of Yucatan

18z GFS at 150 Hours Gets stuck near north coast of Yucatan

18z GFS at 168 Hours Still stationary Near North Coast of Yucatan

18z GFS at 204 Hours Climatology working now.Starts to move NE.

18z GFS at 216 Hours Continues the NE movement

18z GFS at 228 Hours Makes Landfall just south of Tampa Bay.

18z GFS at 240 Hours Travels up all the Florida Penninsula

18z GFS at 252 Hours Moves rapidly NE east of SC.

18z GFS at 264 Hours Goes up to Outer Banks.

18z GFS at 288 Hours Goes to east of New England.

[Recurve]

Oh goody. Always nice to see models going right overhead. Since it's the shallow BAM, I guess not much to worry about.

[bocadude86]

Seems it could be trying to tighten up a bit

[cpdaman]

i think those models are initialized too far north, that weak swirl turned out to be an imposter

[hurricanetrack]

Would the NOAA recon be for more HWRF stuff or focused mainly on what 92L might be doing/not doing?

[Derek Ortt]

some HWRF and a possible genesis flight tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Dont hesitate to comment about the 18z GFS run even if I am still posting the run. What do you think about it so far?