Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[weatherman21]

Have been away for a while and have not observed satellite imagery since this morning. Although, after taking a quick look this morning before leaving for the day, I saw that the system had acquired better tropical characteristics and seems to be maintaining that organization this evening. As with most cases in these sort of scenarios, difficult to say what may happen. The WRF is now calling for a weaker system to make landfall along the North Carolina coastline than before. The trrack forecast seems to be staying consistant with the WRF; although, the intensity forecast is not certian. Given water temperatures of 84-86F over this region and the decrease in shear, strengthening seems to be highly possible, but not certian. These tropical systems can sometimes bring huge surprises.

Water Vapor at 23:45Z


IR Imagery at 23:45Z

[cycloneye]

Mike Siedel is reporting from Topsail Beach,NC.

[artist]

sorry - too many posting too fast.
That was going to chads remark to hurricanedude

[deltadog03]

BTW, as others have stated....The shear is now beginning to really vent this system. I still feel like we have a hurricane at landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Mike Siedel is reporting from Topsail Beach,NC.

Wonder if they have any dirt there...LOL

[SCHurricane]

Because I am too lazy to go check the archives....can anyone tell me what the highest estimated surface winds were based on recon data? Where they were found and what time?

[hurricanedude]

I just dont understand, Ive been a weather fanatic forever..I just dont understand "favorable" shear....oh well...Im an idiot I guess

[hurricanedude]

37.4 MPH

[chadtm80]

I just dont understand, Ive been a weather fanatic forever..I just dont understand "favorable" shear....oh well...Im an idiot I guess

From what I have saw they said it has become more favorable.. Not just that its favorable

[deltadog03]

I wil try to explain. The shear that was destroying the system is moving into a more favorable position to provide outflow and to help vent the system. Its providing an outflow channel. (or starting too)

[hurricanedude]

sorry - too many posting too fast.
That was going to chads remark to hurricanedude

just referring to the comment shear is ventilating the storm

[deltadog03]

[storms in NC]

Mike Siedel is reporting from Topsail Beach,NC.

Wonder if they have any dirt there...LOL

Well there goes some more homes they will condemn

[hurricanedude]

and there was a time all this made since...Im getting old and it sucks!!!LOL

[storms in NC]

What is taking them so long to call these a TD by the time they get done it will be a TS

[Wthrman13]

Shear does not ventilate the storm, the UL divergence does. Shear is pretty much never beneficial in and of itself for a developing tropical system. It just so happens that UL lows usually have regions of shear surrounding them. Depending on the location of the tropical disturbance relative to the UL, the system can find itself in a region of UL divergence and/or strong vertical wind shear. The best case is if it is in a region of UL divergence, with low shear. The point is that there is no such thing as "favorable shear" for a tropical system. It's all about the UL divergence, and UL lows/troughs can enhance that for tropical systems, but sometimes at the expense of providing too much shear as well. Sometimes a system can intensify even under the presence of shear, and this is usually due to some sort of baroclinic mechanism, sometimes resulting in a subtropical storm, but this only goes so far. To really get a cranking TC, you need to relax the shear to very low values.

EDIT: I should point out that when I'm talking about shear above, I mean shear that is positioned directly over a TC's center that is associated with external influences. All TC's have strong vertical shear on their outskirts, due in part to their own outflow (which is anticyclonic, being positioned directly over the low-level inflow, which is cyclonic).

[hurricanetrack]

Topsail not Top Soil

[RL3AO]

What is taking them so long to call these a TD by the time they get done it will be a TS

It doesn't have a well defined circulation.

[hurricanedude]

Wthrman13.....your good man......you explain like a professional....guess thats why you are

[txwatcher91]

Shear does not ventilate the storm, the UL divergence does. Shear is pretty much never beneficial in and of itself for a developing tropical system. It just so happens that UL lows usually have regions of shear surrounding them. Depending on the location of the tropical disturbance relative to the UL, the system can find itself in a region of UL divergence and/or strong vertical wind shear. The best case is if it is in a region of UL divergence, with low shear. The point is that there is no such thing as "favorable shear" for a tropical system. It's all about the UL divergence, and UL lows/troughs can enhance that for tropical systems, but sometimes at the expense of providing too much shear as well. Sometimes a system can intensify even under the presence of shear, and this is usually due to some sort of baroclinic mechanism, sometimes resulting in a subtropical storm, but this only goes far. To really get a cranking TC, you need to relax the shear to very low values.

EDIT: I should point out that when I'm talking about shear above, I mean shear that is positioned directly over a TC's center that is associated with external influences. All TC's have strong vertical shear on their outskirts, due in part to their own outflow (which is anticyclonic, being positioned directly over the low-level inflow, which is cyclonic).

Is the ULL in a position to continue helping this thing intensify, or will it hinder it?