Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[ROCK]

It'll be back by morning, for sure. Convection is building rapidly and beginning to wrap around what looks like a well defined center of circulation due west of Merida in the Bay of Campeche.

yep, I see it very well....lets see if it persists through the night and into tomorrow......BTW- check out the GFS through 72hrs.....interesting indeed....

18z GFS?

Nothing at all there...

yeah, meant NAM out 72hrs....I know its the NAM....

[Stratosphere747]

Makes more sense..

Even though it's the NAM, there is a wee bit credibility to the run. Houston AFD's have had some good discos about the system staying in the SW Gulf. Also the initial models kept pushing 94l over the long-term back towards the BOC.

Still not impressed overall and its future.

[xironman]

The GFS is not that different with it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif, kind of like what the NAM is doing in the western gulf. Weak but the general idea is the same.

[bwhorton2007]

Guys i know ya'll are going to say i am crazy but i don't
think the center of this thing is over water yet.Look closely
at 21N/89W or very near it. That looks like the center too
me.

[bwhorton2007]

Appears to be a new circulation center forming just a tad south of east of 21N/89W.can see it when frames are in motion. moving north at the moment.

[xironman]

The thread is not locked yet. Good bit of convection just to the north of the system http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg, sheared as everyone expected. This one is moving really slow, still fairly close to the 2 am TPC TWD

THE CLUSTER OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN IS MOSTLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW MAY BE NEAR 21N91W. AS OF 24/0300 UTC THE SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF GENERALLY ALONG 91W S OF 27N.

94L will probably be back as the low will be in the same area for a while, better conditions will come in a day. The GFS finally dissipates it on Thursday http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif, I think out of boredom more than anything else.

[vaffie]

Very strong convection forming. Upper level high seems to be gradually building aloft as you can see from clockwise rotation of highest clouds. Looks like it may organize quickly now. New circulation center appears to be forming on the southwest edge of the convection--it has a comma shape right now--so it's still feeling some shear, but the convection is beginning to wrap around the new center already beginning with the northwestern side first. The old center is clearly visible as a swirl of low clouds further southwest, but I expect it to die off as the new one starts to take over with all of this strong convection that is taking place. In the last frame, convection has started to form south of that new circulation center too, so it appears that in a few hours it may be about to wrap around nicely. We may be looking at what will be a rapidly developing system now, especially considering that it's only 4 am on Monday and the best upper level conditions were not going to appear until Tuesday. Unfortunately there are no buoys near it for much of the day. Later on, 42002 will become more useful.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[vegastar]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECASTER KNABB

[Stratosphere747]

Well I don't think I coin this as a rapidly developing system, there is what appears to be a circulation well removed from the convection. Conditions still are not all that conducive for the moment.

Might actually be something to watch later today.

[xironman]

Funny, though banished from the NRL, 94L now has a floater on the Satellite Services Division site http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/ir2-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

94L may appear again later today,if things start to organize.

[cycloneye]

24/0645 UTC 21.5N 91.9W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


This is a sign that NRL will tag back 94L.

[RL3AO]

Most of us felt the NHC/NRL dropped it too soon. It looks like the amateurs win this round. Bwhahahaha.

[lrak]

looks like its getting stronger...acK!

[HollynLA]

Any chance that the center might relocated under that huge blob of convection? I think if that happens, it could be in for quick strengthening.

[lrak]

don't think it will reform underneath the convections. It looks like the shear is relaxing. On the satellite loops the last few frames you can see the WV loop move just a bit slower.

I think this will make some good surf down here.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like all systems go. How soon is things suppose to make landfall

[xironman]

The SWIR on the floater shows the low's spin really well http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-ir2.html. I too don't think you will see any relocation but the track may adjust a bit toward the convection as we have seen previously this year. It has plenty of time, this show is going to be playing all week.

[cycloneye]

24/1145 UTC 21.7N 92.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Is the first time SSD gives T Numbers to this area since it was tagged as a invest a few days ago.

[Thunder44]

24/0645 UTC 21.5N 91.9W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


This is a sign that NRL will tag back 94L.

It should have not been dropped in the first place. This still had a potential to develop, as long as the broad area of low pressure remained in place.