Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

The models have now come together in agreement.Just a couple of days ago they were all over the place.If I lived in Florida I would be getting very concerned right now

comeon cane girl? How do them tracks look any different than Felix or Dean...LOL

[gatorcane]

The models have now come together in agreement.Just a couple of days ago they were all over the place.If I lived in Florida I would be getting very concerned right now

Watching yes, concerned no. This thing is still 1800 miles or so from South Florida. No doubt it could end up in our backyard but the mid-level steering currents need to be just right to put it here (although note September is the prime month for South Florida Cape Verde hits)

We should know by the Fri.-Sat. timeframe where this will end up regarding a possible US landfall. It's too early to say now though and we need to watch the islands closely first.

[windstorm99]

New CMC also added to the pack a tad futher south.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Code: Select all

319
WHXX01 KWBC 121257
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC WED SEP 12 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070912 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070912  1200   070913  0000   070913  1200   070914  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  44.2W   13.7N  45.7W   14.2N  47.0W   14.6N  47.7W
BAMD    13.1N  44.2W   13.6N  45.6W   14.0N  46.7W   14.4N  47.6W
BAMM    13.1N  44.2W   13.7N  45.5W   14.1N  46.7W   14.6N  47.5W
LBAR    13.1N  44.2W   13.8N  46.0W   14.5N  47.8W   15.2N  49.6W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          45KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          45KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070914  1200   070915  1200   070916  1200   070917  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.8N  48.6W   15.8N  50.9W   17.0N  53.7W   17.9N  56.6W
BAMD    14.8N  48.4W   16.2N  50.1W   17.6N  51.8W   18.5N  53.2W
BAMM    15.0N  48.3W   16.2N  50.3W   17.4N  52.7W   18.3N  54.9W
LBAR    15.9N  51.5W   17.8N  55.4W   20.0N  59.4W   21.4N  61.6W
SHIP        58KTS          67KTS          68KTS          68KTS
DSHP        58KTS          67KTS          68KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.1N LONCUR =  44.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  42.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  40.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll wait until this thing becomes a TD, and then see where the NHC track takes it.

Seriously the NHC track has improved greatly over the course of the last five to six years, and this year (thus far) they have nailed every storm with very slim errors over all.

My hat is off to the NHC, bravo on a job well done this sea (thus far).

[destruction92]

IMO, South Carolina to the Keys looks safer than before (even the Euro is hinting at a weakening ridge)

The mid-Atlantic may not be so lucky though.

[windstorm99]

IMO, South Carolina to the Keys looks safer than before (even the Euro is hinting at a weakening ridge)

The mid-Atlantic may not be so lucky though.

Why do post the same thing on both threads?

[destruction92]

IMO, South Carolina to the Keys looks safer than before (even the Euro is hinting at a weakening ridge)

The mid-Atlantic may not be so lucky though.

Why do post the same thing on both threads?

(because it is relevant to both threads!)


IMO, South Carolina to the Keys looks safer than before (even the Euro is hinting at a weakening ridge)

The mid-Atlantic may not be so lucky though.

Any thoughts about the latest global guidance?

Look at that cold front stretched out along the east coast (forecasted by some amateurs to dissipate ), if this does not weaken the ridge I don't know what will....

[windstorm99]

2 depressions are born!

More confirmation on 91L becoming TD8

2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0108A CYCLONE
C. 13/2000Z
D. 14.0N 48.0W
E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 14/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0208A CYCLONE
C. 14/0800Z
D. 14.5N 49.5W
E. 14/1130Z TO 14/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[gatorcane]

Based on the GFS model, look at all the ridging over the East Coast of the CONUS at 168 hours......notice that a front is trying to penetrate that ridge (look at the Central Plains)....

this setup will prevent recurvature should it verify:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

[gatorcane]

IN fact nearly every global model is showing ridging spread across the CONUS out into the Western Atlantic at 126-144 hours.

NOGAPS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=144hr

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

I personally think this one will not be going fishing.

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters on the models for now TD8

Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next 3-4 days, which should allow 91L the opportunity to grow to a Category 1 hurricane or stronger before it reaches the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, the SHIPS, GFDL, and HWRF intensity models all keep 91L below hurricane strength for the next five days. I think this is unrealistic, given the favorable conditions for strengthening present. The big question concerns the track--there is a good chance that 91L will miss the Lesser Antilles, as the current steering currents favor a more northwesterly track for the storm over the coming days. The system has already moved north of Barbados' latitude, and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands are unlikely to receive a direct hit from 91L. Most of the models indicate a west-northwest motion near 10-15 mph, which would bring 91L to the northern islands Monday. The U.S. East Coast may be at risk from this storm ten or so days from now, but it is far too early to speculate on the chance of this occurring, or what region might be most at risk.

[ronjon]

Models have shifted south with todays runs. 06Z GFDL and GFS now targeting the middle LIs and the CMC the northern LIs.

[MWatkins]

12Z GFS is rolling out.

At the 72 hour verify time there is significantly more ridging than the 0Z advertised:

0Z GFS at 8AM Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

versus:

12Z GFS 8AM Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

No question now the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z hurricane guidance should be left of the previous runs...

MW

DOOH! Fixed...

[SoonerMaximus]

oops, both of those are the 00Z

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS is rolling out.

At the 72 hour verify time there is significantly more ridging than the 0Z advertised:

0Z GFS at 8AM Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

versus:

12Z GFS 8AM Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

No question now the 12Z GFDL and the 18Z hurricane guidance should be left of the previous runs...

MW

DOOH! Fixed...

Mike,what about the shear forecast from 12z GFS?

[MWatkins]

As far as the GFS goes...not much change from 0Z to 12Z other than the cyclone is a little better accounted for (but...JUST a little)...and a less amplified overall shear pattern looking at the 850 to 200MB zonal shear maps...

MW

[Meso]

UKMET 12z

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Mike, do you foresee the system impacting the central-northern Lesser Antilles or Puerto Rico?

[windstorm99]