Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Why does Florida seem to get hit by cartoon characters lately? Wilma, soon to be Felix? J/k, don't sound the alarms until we see a LLC folks. Anyone see one yet?

no but certainly things are slowly organizing....you can see the plume of moisture streaming in from Trinidad and Tobago into our system...and the convection is sustaining. There is also plenty of convergence.....

I would give it about 24-48 hours to see a depression out of this.

[seaswing]

Seems this time of the year, almost everything develops into at least a wave. But as Mike said, it is that time of year. I watch more closely now until October than I do June, July and early August. They can and often do spin up very fast. How many times have ya'll gone away from the board one day when something is an invest to only come back the next day and the same storm has become a TS? especially this time of year. Watch this one closely folks..... just my two cents

Seas

[PhillyWX]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

Yeah, that's nice, he said that about Dean too. But I think this could be a probably IF it develops an LLC. I see no where else it can go but west toward the SE US.

He also said Erin would be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall. With that said, he did call for it to be a TS about a week out. You just have to take what JB says with a grain of salt.

[vacanechaser]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

thats what was said about dean too... that it was moving to fast.. and look at dean... i would not be so sure here...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricnae Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks this may develop and head toward FL. Beyond FL, he then thinks it could be a GOM issue down the road. That sounds reasonable to me...and I will definitely be watching this system closely!

[hurricanetrack]

Once again the GFS all but loses this system. It looks like it dries it out and it just fades in to nothing. How could this be? If the GFS is to be believed, then this will not develop. It did very well with Dean- when even the revered EURO dropped Dean, the GFS held on and made Dean what it is today. So one would have to put some faith in the ole US model. And it does not stand alone. Only the Canadian shows real potential- most, if not all, other globals do very little with this system. One has to ask why.

Is it A) b/c most of the models are not working properly and don't "see" this system even though it is there and it will develop?

Or, B) the models are seeing it and weaken it over time b/c it just is not going to develop much at all.

Any room for a C) or a D) then please share your thoughts. I am not convinced that this will develop, it could just dry up and be nothing per the GFS which shows this run after run after run....

[storms in NC]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

thats what was said about dean too... that it was moving to fast.. and look at dean... i would not be so sure here...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricnae Intercept Research Team

But dean did slow and build up and then took off again afterwards. I think down to 17-18 if he keep on at 20-23 would have out ran itself.

[chadtm80]

c) models don't tend to do well with these type of systems untill they actually "form"

[Sanibel]

Our local weatherman didn't even mention it. All he showed was a WV loop of the extremely dry air surrounding this disturbance from Dean's outflow subsidence.

When Dean goes over Yucatan he'll stop blowing so much dry air. That could be when this one grabs the opportunity. It has the look of lurking.

[wxwonder12]

did Brian Norcross come on yet or have anything to say?

[storms in NC]

not looking to good right now any ways

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't get too excited. It's just an open wave.

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

[Lowpressure]

Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

That is why it is in a different thread.

[seaswing]

Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

That is why it is in a different thread.

good one and true!

[storms in NC]

Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

I think any thing that is out there where it be a Invest or hurricane is worth talking about. 92L is very close to the US If it does turn into something more. and needs to watched more. It doesn't mean WE have to watch one or the other.

[Steve H.]

The 12Z Canadien isn't as bullish as before, now showing a 1008 on the east coast of Florida. But the idea here is that it shows it...intensity is a difficult thing, particularly when a cyclone doesn't exist yet. Models often aren't quick to grab onto something this time of year, like the GFS, which will lose a system, only to bring it back later. There is some shear over 92L at the moment, but there is also a favorable environment ahead of it in the near future. Earlier, I was about to post that the NRL was pre-mature in calling this an Invest, but I see some interesting things with the curvature at low levels with convection getting sheared away. Once the impulse to the north moves by and the high builds in we may have an interesting setup emerging.

[Ptarmigan]

Low Pressure:
Invest 92L should be in a different thread because it will probably become Felix.

Storms in NC:
It is closer to America, so I can understand why we should watch it. Blobs are worth watching, especially if they are closer to us. It could be possible it could end up in GOM. It would not surprise me if 92L becomes a TD this week.

[Chacor]

TCFA:

WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
//