INVEST 91L : East of Lesser Antilles : Gone from NRL

[mightyerick]

I guess NHC will add it to its next Atlantic weather outlook

[mightyerick]

Only it is mostly sheared storms that come to nothing.

Yes, indeed. that is why we are getting so low ACE value for this season.

[Derek Ortt]

shear should impact this system starting late tomorrow. I am not expecting much from this

[Brent]

Here fishy.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Sanibel]

I should have checked the models first. Out-to-sea.

[CrazyC83]

Out to sea into the deadly shear.

[Steve H.]

Yeah great curve, but with the mean Atlantic ridge being in place and flattening, I would question an immediate out to sea solution. Might get torn up, but I would expect a more wnw-smoothed course.

[Gustywind]

Yeah great curve, but with the mean Atlantic ridge being in place and flattening, I would question an immediate out to sea solution. Might get torn up, but I would expect a more wnw-smoothed course.

Absolulety we see but how strong this ridge will be , that's the 1000$ question in my humble opinion, we should give 24h to see what really happen in terms of path...

[Gustywind]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:31 AM EDT on October 03, 2007
Disturbance 91L between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (91L) near 9N, 41W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has gotten better organized this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a wind shift associated with the wave, but no closed circulation. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorm activity that is not well-organized. The disturbance is
headed west at 10-15 mph, and is expected to take a more west-northwesterly track Thursday.

Wind shear is about 10 knots over the wave, and is forecast to remain below 15 knots until Thursday night. This may allow for some slow development. However, beginning Thursday night, wind shear is expect to increase and remain 20-30 knots through Sunday. This should prevent further development.

I'll have an update Thursday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1854 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1800 071004 0600 071004 1800 071005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 40.8W 10.8N 43.1W 12.0N 45.4W 13.0N 48.0W
BAMD 9.7N 40.8W 10.8N 43.3W 12.2N 45.6W 13.7N 47.3W
BAMM 9.7N 40.8W 10.6N 43.3W 11.7N 45.8W 12.7N 48.1W
LBAR 9.7N 40.8W 10.2N 42.3W 11.0N 44.1W 12.0N 46.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1800 071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 50.5W 16.0N 55.1W 18.6N 59.4W 22.9N 61.4W
BAMD 15.2N 48.5W 17.9N 49.6W 20.5N 49.0W 21.6N 46.3W
BAMM 13.8N 50.3W 16.2N 53.5W 18.8N 56.0W 22.4N 57.2W
LBAR 12.9N 48.5W 15.2N 52.5W 19.0N 55.1W 22.6N 53.9W
SHIP 44KTS 46KTS 43KTS 46KTS
DSHP 44KTS 46KTS 43KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 40.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 40.1W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 8.9N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

[bTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD STILL
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME


][/b]

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
its looking good
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
and shear is not looking to bad until it reaches the islands.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB Surface Analysis= Possible Tropical Cyclone within 24 hours..Note that it forecasts the low to move in a general westward direction

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
its looking good
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
and shear is not looking to bad until it reaches the islands.

Absolutely Punkyg quite agree with you, and moisture seems really sufficient to support at least a TD given WV sat and winds continue to be low in vicinity of the system for the moment ...but i don't know why the NHC is anticiping very quickly the shear environnement?!...maybe we should see a monster upper level through or something like that to see very strong winds in the area, we will see what pan's out, but whereas force to admit with my untrained eyes that we have a nice system this OCtober 4th on WV sat pic ....with pressure down to 1010hpa according to the NRL SITE latest:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp
9,7N 40,8w 1010 hpa 25kts 2315 UTC

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 10N42W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WHICH IS ABOUT 1200 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 35W-46W AND ARE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 040046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071004 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 0000 071004 1200 071005 0000 071005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 42.0W 10.7N 44.1W 11.8N 46.4W 12.9N 48.9W
BAMD 9.6N 42.0W 10.6N 44.3W 11.7N 46.2W 13.0N 47.6W
BAMM 9.6N 42.0W 10.5N 44.7W 11.4N 47.3W 12.4N 49.7W
LBAR 9.6N 42.0W 10.2N 43.8W 11.1N 45.9W 12.1N 48.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 0000 071007 0000 071008 0000 071009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 51.0W 15.5N 55.5W 18.0N 59.5W 21.0N 62.5W
BAMD 14.5N 48.6W 17.3N 50.2W 20.6N 50.4W 22.9N 46.2W
BAMM 13.4N 51.3W 15.0N 54.5W 17.9N 57.2W 21.5N 58.0W
LBAR 13.1N 50.5W 15.6N 54.6W 19.7N 56.6W 23.7N 53.8W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 45KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 45KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

Not too far north for the Leewards Islands in this run and more west than previous run ...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L