Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1215 UTC 6.3N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 96L

[punkyg]

Did quikscat go over this system today?

[punkyg]

This system looks nice zoomed out.

[ROCK]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_3.html

[fci]

Isn't this unusually far South for a system this time of year?

[Cyclone1]

Isn't this unusually far South for a system this time of year?

Actually for any time of year. I believe the record for formation is Isidore in either 96 or 90, at about 7N.

[Sanibel]

Like Dean CV spit out another system when everything looked bad for formation.

A lot of space in front of this one.

[gatorcane]

this is the best a wave has looked so far this east this year and it appears it won't be recurving anytime soon.

Am I looking at the calendar correctly?

[CrazyC83]

This should be the next TD I think, maybe TD12 today...

[punkyg]

96L is so much better organzied then 97L thats why i chose it in the which invest will make it to TD status first poll.

[punkyg]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231300Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 231300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 27.0W TO 8.0N 33.5W WITHIN
THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 0 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
27.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 241800Z

[HURAKAN]

210
ABNT20 KNHC 231510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

[RL3AO]

[LarryWx]

96L has only a small chance (~10%) imho to reach the CONUS assuming it becomes a TD prior to 50W since only three "CV storms" that formed later than 9/16 (bolded) also later hit the CONUS:

Here are the exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for the 45 1851-2006 CV storms* that later hit the CONUS:

7/5, 7/11, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/15, 8/15, 8/16, 8/16, 8/17, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21, 8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21, 9/25

- From 1851-2006, there were 36 CV storms that formed within the interval of 9/15-9/25.

- Five later hit the CONUS and all five were majors at some point along their trek. Here are their formation dates: 9/25/1893 (storm #9 hit SC), 9/21/1966 (Inez hit FL), 9/16/1985 (Gloria hit NC to NE), 9/15/1998 (Georges hit FL keys and MS), and 9/21/2002 (Lili hit LA)

- So, five of 36 (13%) 1851-2004 CV storms that formed 9/15-9/25 later hit the CONUS. My gut feel is that anything forming within the 9/23-5 period would have about a 10% chance since it is late in the 9/15-25 period.

*My def. of CV storm: tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N

[LarryWx]

96L is so much better organzied then 97L thats why i chose it in the which invest will make it to TD status first poll.

Even though it may never become a TC, I still say that 97L has a good bit greater chance of hitting the CONUS while it still exists than 96L as of now since I'm giving 96L only ~10% chance of doing so based on history back to 1851.

[Derek Ortt]

Are you also considering the altitude in which 96L is located at? How many storms in the record formed this far south. Storms forming this far south usually do not recurve

[Derek Ortt]

outflow boundary out of the northern portion of the convection

Still think this has about 24-38 hours to go before becoming a TD

I give this a 40-50% chance of developing

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 14:45 UTC

[Gustywind]

Are you also considering the altitude in which 96L is located at? How many storms in the record formed this far south. Storms forming this far south usually do not recurve

Good point Derek agree with you , meaning ...a future threat for us in the islands and chances for a non recurve system are much higher...whereas hope for an amazing weakness to see a fish, but given all the informations unhopefuly if if this trends contines we're far away from a fish ans this could be a huge CV cane churning near the Carib!!!

[weatherwindow]

luis...what is the climo of late season major landfalls for the leewards and pr?.. also just a note the TCFA is noting a wnw motion @ 7kts while the NHC is suggesting west @ 15kts, imo, an early transition to wnw would certainly increase the chances of a recurve east of you....rich