Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[ronjon]

Here in Florida were protected by the bubble of no trouble which is high pressure. If this pattern continues I won't have to use my shuttters at all this year. I think 98L will be a 10 yard line system too probably destined for Central America.

Don't forget that ridges don't last forever - especially in September. The chances of 3 storms traversing the caribbean is extremely rare. Everyone seems to have developed short memories around here - let's see there was 2004 & 2005 and just one month ago we were talking about that persistent EC trough that was gonna send these storms to fishland. This storm, if it forms, will start out at a much higher LAT - most years we'd be talking about fish spinner for this one.

[caneman]

Here in Florida were protected by the bubble of no trouble which is high pressure. If this pattern continues I won't have to use my shuttters at all this year. I think 98L will be a 10 yard line system too probably destined for Central America.

Don't forget that ridges don't last forever - especially in September. The chances of 3 storms traversing the caribbean is extremely rare. Everyone seems to have developed short memories around here - let's see there was 2004 & 2005 and just one month ago we were talking about that persistent EC trough that was gonna send these storms to fishland. This storm, if it forms, will start out at a much higher LAT - most years we'd be talking about fish spinner for this one.

Agreed and I stated this as well. Right now I'm concerned with how many seem to develop and go West down at these Lats if this keeps up with a potential developing La Nina which could mean a later season, the GOM would likely see some trouble later on.

[z-bail]

wow, just getting larger every frame this morning on the rainbow loop and staying in a pretty tight ball. it looks to be farther north than dean and the current depression tracked. i just have a feeling this is going to be a north tracking storm or a fish. i just hope it stays north of the islands so it will stay in the central florida swell window.

[storms in NC]

Don't think this one is going to be a straight west storm. I think it will go around the ridge that is there now. But by the end of next week the ridge will be braking down and it could be a fish storm or Fla up the east coast. I have this rule of thumb. gets to the 25 before the 55 it is a fish. So we need to see what will happen next week. Don't think it will go down very far Just will skirt around the ridge. Where I don't have a clue till next week. JIMO

Deb

[Sanibel]

This little disturbance has a very distorted LLC.

[punkyg]

Did quikscat pass over 98L.

[HURAKAN]

[windstorm99]

Lyons stated 98L has the potential to develope into a TD during the next day or so if thunderstorms persist.

[HURAKAN]

842
ABNT20 KNHC 011508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FELIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

I hope it will become a Category 4 Gabrielle

Well I don't ... this is a likely threat for the Leeward Islands and (very speculatively) possibly the US east coast after that.

[punkyg]

So that little spin is 98L.

[Sanibel]

Strength could be limited by proximity to Dean. This should develop since it is on Quickscat. Climatology is finally overcoming 2007 negativity. This was probably one of those dissipated waves that came off Africa at a high latitude.

[skysummit]

Strength could be limited by proximity to Dean. This should develop since it is on Quickscat. Climatology is finally overcoming 2007 negativity. This was probably one of those dissipated waves that came off Africa at a high latitude.

I believe this is the one that Watkins was saying would be the one to develop. It was part of that very large circulation a couple days ago.

[Sanibel]

Highly unlikely under that ridge Felix is currently under.

[flwxwatcher]

98L is looking better Today . Looks like its on its way to T.D. status in the next few days. It will be interesting to see how things pan out with 98L as far as track . Lets see how things tele-connect with the WPAC and the Typhoon that looks to curve into Japan this week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7090100!!/

[punkyg]

The fishies bore me. we need storms that will come close to land, but then get turned out to sea. that will get our juices pumping and we can freshing up on preparing for a storm.

aw who am i kidding i love being is hurricanes!

[storms in NC]

FXUS62 KILM 011354
AFDILM


. BY FRIDAY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY PRODUCING GREATER CHANCE OF
PCP.

[cycloneye]

I hope it will become a Category 4 Gabrielle

Well I don't ... this is a likely threat for the Leeward Islands and (very speculatively) possibly the US east coast after that.

Jan,this one worries me the most.Lets see what happens trackwise and if it develops.

[cycloneye]

98L
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the south, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. Given its more northerly starting point, this system may be a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico next week.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

From Doctor Jeff Masters.

[fci]

I hope it will become a Category 4 Gabrielle

I will resist the strong temptation to blast and lecture here
Suffice to say, I hope you are wrong.