Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[gotoman38]

I hope you are all holding up ok - I'm thinking of you.

I hope Henk gets his program rolling again - that GoogleEarth file of his is AWESOME

[gotoman38]

I hope Henk gets his program rolling again - that GoogleEarth file of his is AWESOME

LOL - ask and ye shall receive - it's up now.

[RL3AO]

Did they turn around?

[gotoman38]

Sure looked like it in the last 3 OBS - we'll find out in just a minute

[RL3AO]

Strange. They went north for a few minutes now they are heading south again.

[gotoman38]

yeah - they just flew a little loop at 0420Z - sightseeing?

[gotoman38]

Looks like they're trying to make another quick fix before the 2am advisory update.

[Chacor]

New VDM:

175
URNT12 KNHC 020557
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 02/05:40:40Z
B. 12 deg 40 min N
067 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2975 m
D. 71 kt
E. 134 deg 007 nm
F. 236 deg 055 kt
G. 142 deg 012 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 6 C/ 3053 m
J. 13 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0606A FELIX OB 09
MAX FL WIND 93 KT N QUAD 05:09:00 Z

[miamicanes177]

NHC is now using a 75% reduction method on flight level winds based on the 2am outlook. 93kts at flight level with a 75% rule yields 80mph at the surface. They believe Felix is having difficulty transferring the flight level winds to the surface.

[RL3AO]

NHC is now using a 75% reduction method on flight level winds based on the 2am outlook. 93kts at flight level with a 75% rule yields 80mph at the surface. They believe Felix is having difficulty transferring the flight level winds to the surface.

Or maybe they want to wait for more information.

[Brent]

NHC is now using a 75% reduction method on flight level winds based on the 2am outlook. 93kts at flight level with a 75% rule yields 80mph at the surface. They believe Felix is having difficulty transferring the flight level winds to the surface.

They also used the phrase AT LEAST, I expect higher winds at 5am.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 02 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FELIX
FLIGHT ONE
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1206A FELIX
C. 03/1430Z
D. 14.7N 77.9W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 04/0000Z
B. NOAA2 1306A FELIX
C. 03/2000Z
D. 15.3N 79.5W
E. 03/2230Z TO 04/0130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 1406A FELIX
C. 04/0215Z
D. 15.4N 81.8W
E. 04/0500Z TO 04/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR
A. 04/1200Z
B. NOAA3 1506A FELIX
C. 04/0800Z
D. 15.8N 82.7W
E. 04/1030Z TO 04/1330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE
A. 04/1200Z
B. AFXXX 1606A FELIX
C. 04/0815Z
D. 15.8N 82.7W
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

[JtSmarts]

Very interested to see what recon finds, Felix already looks like a borderline Cat 4. It will also be interesting to see if his wind field remains compact, or has expanded.

[x-y-no]

They're flying this mission at 700mb, looks like.

That's certainly a hint they expect to find a major hurricane.

[gotoman38]

656
URNT15 KNHC 021657
AF305 0806A FELIX HDOB 11 20070902
164730 1437N 06925W 5729 04824 0137 -007 -007 110038 039 999 999 03
164800 1436N 06927W 5977 04471 0142 +004 +004 112042 043 999 999 03
164830 1436N 06930W 6253 04112 0150 +026 +026 116043 043 999 999 03
164900 1436N 06933W 6560 03722 0142 +056 +034 116043 044 999 999 03
164930 1437N 06935W 6858 03352 0126 +084 +084 116043 045 999 999 03
165000 1437N 06938W 6978 03192 0104 +096 +096 112041 042 999 999 05
165030 1438N 06939W 6975 03188 0097 +094 +094 117042 042 999 999 05
165100 1440N 06939W 6962 03199 0102 +086 +086 123041 042 999 999 03
165130 1439N 06937W 6966 03222 0134 +088 +066 120038 039 999 999 03
165200 1439N 06936W 6969 03220 0133 +090 +064 125041 042 999 999 03
165230 1439N 06934W 6967 03221 0137 +086 +066 131042 042 999 999 03
165300 1438N 06933W 6969 03218 0137 +086 +070 129039 040 999 999 03
165330 1438N 06932W 6968 03222 0138 +086 +076 127039 040 999 999 03
165400 1436N 06931W 6969 03225 0144 +086 +064 126037 038 999 999 03
165430 1435N 06932W 6965 03225 0137 +088 +056 122038 038 999 999 03
165500 1434N 06933W 6969 03216 0131 +090 +052 121037 037 999 999 03
165530 1432N 06935W 6967 03219 0129 +092 +048 121038 038 999 999 03
165600 1431N 06936W 6969 03216 0125 +094 +050 122039 039 999 999 03
165630 1430N 06937W 6967 03219 0128 +092 +052 122039 039 999 999 03
165700 1428N 06939W 6969 03218 0132 +090 +058 123040 040 999 999 03

Once again they flew a loop on the first approach to the system - they did it last night too - what's up with that?

[x-y-no]

122 knots flight level NE quad.

[cycloneye]

9602

The lowest pressure when plane crossed the eye.

[miamicanes177]

D. 120 kt

Does this mean that the crew estimates the surface winds to be 120kts, OR does this mean that SFMR measured 120kts at the surface?

[WmE]

The crew estimates 120kts.

[WindRunner]

Since there is no SFMR on this plane, it would technically be a visual estimate . . . but the problem with that is that there visual guide to wind estimates doesn't really go that high.