Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

I can't remember, but either Frances or Jean did this and well we ALL know what happend there!

[jhamps10]

I can't remember, but either Frances or Jean did this and well we ALL know what happend there!

also Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Katrina start out in this area? I mean before it was TD 10 even.

[deltadog03]

Yeah, I THINK*** katrina started as a wave close to there....I think she was more in the bahamas though.

[gatorcane]

Yes, many storms that hit Florida made it to that lattitude. Katrina, Andrew, Jeanne, etc.

and as far as not being a major, several storms have bombed out over the Bahamas and Gulf stream before reaching Florida (e.g. 1935 Labor Day Hurricane)...

so a major into Florida is very possible.

When I saw this area last night, my first thought was....here we go...

Florida is embedded in a deep easterly wind pattern which means we need to watch the east...

[gatorcane]

does this look familiar Florida:

insurance companies are going to love this track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=132hr

[weatherwindow]

at a glance, 92L looks to track between wnw and nw over the first 72 and then catches a building ridge and moves just north of due west.....still a long way from the coast at 120hrs.....rich

[canegrl04]

The strong ridge should force it across Florida and into the GOM Felix here we come?

[gatorcane]

at a glance, 92L looks to track between wnw and nw over the first 72 and then catches a building ridge and moves just north of due west.....still a long way from the coast at 120hrs.....rich

Two storms come to mind with this track:

Andrew and Katrina...

When the ridge builds it can push it WSW or W...depending upon how strong the ridge gets..that is the key here.

[Derek Ortt]

this will likely develop as it slows down and ends up under an upper ridge

probably looking at a cane out of this one

reminds me of dennis 1999

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

this will likely develop as it slows down and ends up under an upper ridge

probably looking at a cane out of this one

reminds me of dennis 1999

strong words from Derek here....but do you think it will curve up to the midatlantic coast like Dennis. Models want to push it across the FL peninsula into GOM...

While the attention is on Dean, I do forsee the attention quickly shifting to this one (where many people don't even know it is there yet).

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 25N
MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...
FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W...AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN
55W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST OF GUYANA AND SURINAME
NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...AND IN PART OF THE ITCZ
STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[KWT]

Some will say fish but lets remember the high pressure is very strong and has been all this week, just take a look at Dean's track and you'll see that this won't likely be a fish, the high pressure belt to its north is still very strong.

[Chacor]

VIS:

[HollynLA]

Hopefully Florida is prepared after watching Dean. Looks like it will a busy week, but it is late August after all.

[ronjon]

Some will say fish but lets remember the high pressure is very strong and has been all this week, just take a look at Dean's track and you'll see that this won't likely be a fish, the high pressure belt to its north is still very strong.

And let's not forget what we have just seen with Dean - as these systems really bomb out, then tend to "pump up" the ridging north of them. At this point, I don't see anything on the horizon mid-latitude wise that would weaken the Atlantic Ridge significantly.

[Frank2]

Still, I wouldn't get too excited - look what happened with Dean...

If I had two hours, I could count all of the predictions posted here on how Dean would end up here and there - only to take a current track that most did not see coming last week...

When it comes to predicting a hurricane's track, it's similar to standing 50 feet away from a dart board, only to predict that every dart will end up in the exact same place as the last - each hurricane track is unique, so, while one might end up in one place, it's unlikely that the next will do so...

I only wish folks would accept that...

[Chacor]

The 12Z SHIPS rapid intensification index indicates a slight possibility of RI in the next 48 hours:

Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%)

[hiflyer]

The SFWMD spaghetti is up for this
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_92.gif

I'm thinking my friends on Bermuda may be interested in this one.