Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[punkyg]

Well they said the coc is under the convection on the eastern side, then that means its under the heaviest convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[HURAKAN]

The visible and RGB are updated showing 90L.

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

Floater 1 currently shows Mexico, but it is labeled "90L" on the NHC site. So I expect SSD to reposition it shortly.

You need to refresh the image and you will see 90L.

I see it now. It's very close up. You can't see the entire system, but you can see the LLC on the visible loop near 12N and 31W.

[cycloneye]

13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Hello TD4.

[punkyg]

13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Hello TD4.

ITS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION?!?!?!?!?

[miamicanes177]

I continue to be amazed the NHC refuses to admit this is a TD. However, I have enough faith in them that they will come to their senses and call it such at 10am.

[canetracker]

13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Hello TD4.

ITS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION?!?!?!?!?

Not officially yet, but T numbers and sat presentation suggest it is.

[Blown Away]

Models want a more WNW turn at the end of the runs. I'm not real confident in the mostly due west track across the Caribbean. JMHO

[HURAKAN]

GOOD MORNING!!!

[mf_dolphin]

It's not a tropical depression until the NHC says so. At this point that's a formality but an important one.

[Derek Ortt]

I have to say that this has finally intensified into a depression

[HollynLA]

Is the easterly shear going to let up on 90L today, or has it already?

[cycloneye]

It's not a tropical depression until the NHC says so. At this point that's a formality but an important one.

Agree.If there is unofficial information such as NRL changing header to NONAME or models are at 30kts,we as always will wait for the official word from NHC to then make a TD thread in the active storms forum.

[Janie2006]

Looking at the latest spaghetti graph, there only seems to be one model which takes 90L farther NW than the rest. The remaining models seem to agree on a WNW movement. Perhaps the Atlantic monster ridge stays strong enough to direct the system into the Carribean Sea, which could spell trouble down the road. I'm not at all convinced that there is enough of a weakness in the ridge to pull the system to the NW in the coming days.

[Chacor]

TCFA reissued:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AMMENDMENT 131200Z AUG 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 131200Z
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/121200Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU 121200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 30.0W TO 12.0N 40.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 30.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141200Z.
//

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's officially TD4:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 042007.ren

[Derek Ortt]

upon a second look... the center still looks quite exposed to the east. It was under the convection earlier, but the upper easterlies are still a bit faster than this is moving; thus, the center appears exposed once again

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 131240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200 070815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 30.7W 13.0N 33.4W 13.8N 36.7W 14.6N 40.5W
BAMD 12.1N 30.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.7N 37.8W 12.9N 41.4W
BAMM 12.1N 30.7W 12.9N 33.9W 13.6N 37.6W 14.2N 41.5W
LBAR 12.1N 30.7W 12.1N 34.2W 12.3N 38.4W 12.6N 42.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 45.1W 17.0N 55.4W 17.9N 65.5W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMD 13.2N 45.1W 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 59.5W 18.8N 66.3W
BAMM 14.8N 46.0W 15.8N 55.8W 15.7N 64.6W 14.7N 71.2W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 13.5N 55.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 27.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 24.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

30 kts

[Thunder44]

948
WHXX01 KWBC 131240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200 070815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 30.7W 13.0N 33.4W 13.8N 36.7W 14.6N 40.5W
BAMD 12.1N 30.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.7N 37.8W 12.9N 41.4W
BAMM 12.1N 30.7W 12.9N 33.9W 13.6N 37.6W 14.2N 41.5W
LBAR 12.1N 30.7W 12.1N 34.2W 12.3N 38.4W 12.6N 42.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 45.1W 17.0N 55.4W 17.9N 65.5W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMD 13.2N 45.1W 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 59.5W 18.8N 66.3W
BAMM 14.8N 46.0W 15.8N 55.8W 15.7N 64.6W 14.7N 71.2W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 13.5N 55.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 27.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 24.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Upgrade at 11am, very likely. See you guys this evening.