Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[PhillyWX]

Arlene was 70 mph and had no convection at all on its west side - same with Alberto...

There have been hurricanes that have looked like utter garbage in the GOM as well but they had the winds to support being a hurricane.

[Brent]

Arlene was 70 mph and had no convection at all on its west side - same with Alberto...

There have been hurricanes that have looked like utter garbage in the GOM as well but they had the winds to support being a hurricane.

Earl!



It had 100 mph winds when the shot was taken.

[CrazyC83]

Whoops wrong thread...

[cheezyWXguy]

I see this has significantly organized since this morning, with a shield of clouds over the west side, but you have to admit...this is the worst looking 50mph (possible) TS there has been so far in the last few years. This thing is almost as ugly as grace right now, but is organizing fairly fast now. Organization will likely catch up with its strength overnight and tomorrow. To say my opinion, I could see a hurricane tomorrow night and an even stronger one on sunday before landfall, based on the way it has been organizing. Remember yesterday at this time? It was virtually dieing out and now look at it

Oh I've seen several much worse looking storms just in the last 3 years.

Me too, but none at nearly 50mph, unless they were weakening. Its a 45mph TS with the appearance of a developing 30mph TD. Once convection can fully consolidate around the center, which its rapidly doing, it could really start to strengthen quickly tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

guys hello the closed low is an upper level feature it was forecast to close off for the last 2 days it is the reason for the big blob west of the llC IMO

[brunota2003]

Hmmm...still nothing from the NHC. They'll probably wait until 11 tonight.

[RL3AO]

They are not upgrading without a VDM.

[cheezyWXguy]

guys hello the closed low is an upper level feature it was forecast to close off for the last 2 days it is the reason for the big blob west of the llC IMO

Have you been gone the last 2 days? 1st, that is obviously a LLC, not an upper level feature. It is a closed circulation, but the center has not been found yet, which explains the lack of a VDM. Second, the blob to the west is due to rapidly decreasing shear over the storm. Its been organizing really fast compared to yesterday.

[Sanibel]

Got the modem fixed. Thank God! I can see things in motion again.


99L moving west at 29.8 latitude.

Be careful. The west blob could be converging shear at a different level. In that case it would be inhibiting formation slightly.

[Brent]

Hmmm...still nothing from the NHC. They'll probably wait until 11 tonight.

Actually I think the recon plane is headed back to where the center is now, so we may get something(assuming it's closed, I really hope it is) sooner.

[jaxfladude]

Well the city and metro areas of Jacksonville, Florida does need not watch this thing since we have been given the all clear....only a small chance of getting a weak-side T-storm and that is only for the beaches...Jax, Fla hurricane shield holds yet again....

[fasterdisaster]

This is definitely NOT bad looking for a 45-50 mph TS. Not above average, but not much below.

[Recurve]

guys hello the closed low is an upper level feature it was forecast to close off for the last 2 days it is the reason for the big blob west of the llC IMO

This is certainly possible, I haven't looked really close lately.
There's things interacting, I wouldn't be so sure this is coming together if circulation is weak/broad at the surface.

It's probably unavoidable on Storm2K: Always focus on at least one category higher than the official forecast.

[wxman57]

Looks like some of the convection is wrapping around the upper low out to the west around 76 W. That's not helping the LLC get going. Surface low is near 29.9N/71.5W. Still quite pathetic looking for a surface low, but the NHC has upgraded systems with a poor LLC that were threatening land many times before.

[OuterBanker]

Went to dinner and just looked at ir and it seems to me the convection is lessening. At the same time though it also seems what convection there is becomming more symettrical. Btw, I notice that some are mentioning 45 kt winds. I thought that recon found winds only in the 24 kt range, what gives?

[Brent]

Went to dinner and just looked at ir and it seems to me the convection is lessening. At the same time though it also seems what convection there is becomming more symettrical. Btw, I notice that some are mentioning 45 kt winds. I thought that recon found winds only in the 24 kt range, what gives?

Peak at FL was actually 48 kt...

221300 3113N 07042W 9771 00334 0152 +218 +218 118046 048 999 999 05

Many reports of over 40 kts.

[brunota2003]

Went to dinner and just looked at ir and it seems to me the convection is lessening. At the same time though it also seems what convection there is becomming more symettrical. Btw, I notice that some are mentioning 45 kt winds. I thought that recon found winds only in the 24 kt range, what gives?

On a pass earlier, recon found winds at flight level of 48 knots, which comes out, using .8 reduction, to roughly 44 mph at the surface.

[OuterBanker]

Locally the news broadcast gave two scenarios. One was more inland which would bring TS conditions here. The other which would bring the center over the OBX which could be a minimal hurricane. Seems some of the models are still bringing the center of whatever near or over us.

[storms in NC]

Where is OBX

[RL3AO]

Where is OBX

Outer Banks, NC.