Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Derek Ortt]

one only needs about 12 hours to prepare for a TS. Massive evacuations that may take 24 hours are not required. All one has to do is clean up lawn furnature and other loose objects, maybe get supplies for 1-2 days (power is not usually off that long after a TS... except in Miami), sandbag and possibly evac is near a river.

That can be done in 12 hours and one probably should not wait for a formal TS warning to buy supplies

[miamicanes177]

as most here know, I HATE upgrading without a well-defined center and without surface winds of at least 25KT (and I perfer 30KT before making an upgrade)

Do you automatically have to issue advisories when the NHC declares a TD or TS even if you disagree with them? If not, you could wait until tomorrow or whenever to issue advisories even if the NHC declares it an official depression or storm.

[MWatkins]

Seems like a really flat gradient...everwhere you look it's 1011...

Hard to upgrade at this time I think...have to wait to see if the cloud pattern consolidates overnight. Despite the increase in overall convection...it really hasn't gotten any better organized since this morning.

MW

[windstorm99]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

[OuterBanker]

May reissue tropical diaturbance statement though.

[mattpetre]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

My only thought is that this is confusing... sounds like a forecast of 99L to go over FL. Is this old or just not in agreement with models? Anyone know what this is?

[cycloneye]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

That has to be posted in talking tropics forum not here.

[Air Force Met]

as most here know, I HATE upgrading without a well-defined center and without surface winds of at least 25KT (and I perfer 30KT before making an upgrade)

I think the case could be made for it being a TD (or a Sub-TD). There was a ship report a few hours ago of sustained 33 kts out of the east.

I've seen them upgrade worse looking LLC's. "The broad, poorly defiend center of TD#7 was located near..."

[vacanechaser]

mark sudduth said he just herd on cnn, they called the nhc, no upgrade... from cnn... so, there you have it..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[mattpetre]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

Thoughts?

That has to be posted in talking tropics forum not here.

I think he like I did, thought this was talking about 99L. Just some confusion here.

[Brent]

This storm is driving me insane. I wish it would develop already. I'm sick of this waiting and nothing happens.

[SENClander]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-082000-
PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MAY IMPACT THE CAPE FEAR
REGION ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

[WindRunner]

mark sudduth said he just herd on cnn, they called the nhc, no upgrade... from cnn... so, there you have it..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

No surprise there . . . we don't have data yet. And considering it probably took them a good 20 minutes to get that from the phone onto the air, it's even less of surprsie.

[MWatkins]

Nothing from the plane indicates an upgrade...

Meanwhile...in the Gulf of Mexico...showers and thunderstorms are on the increase north of the Yucatan. Wonder if they will mention this in the 5:30 TWO...

MW

[cycloneye]

I tought I would not put at the title of thread the (5:30 PM TWO Shortly) words.

[Brent]

Nothing from the plane indicates an upgrade...

Meanwhile...in the Gulf of Mexico...showers and thunderstorms are on the increase north of the Yucatan. Wonder if they will mention this in the 5:30 TWO...

MW

Noticed that, and since 99L is taking it's own sweet time about doing anything, my interest may get a lot bigger in the Gulf system instead.

[windstorm99]

Nothing from the plane indicates an upgrade...

Meanwhile...in the Gulf of Mexico...showers and thunderstorms are on the increase north of the Yucatan. Wonder if they will mention this in the 5:30 TWO...

MW

Mike whats your take on the Discussion i posted for south florida?

[CrazyC83]

Without conclusive data, I think they made the right call not upgrading at 5 pm. If we see a closed circulation, there could be a special advisory though.

[GeneratorPower]

Always the possibility of ending up with two (2) threats at the same time. Let FEMA try and handle THAT.

[CrazyC83]

Found the west wind. Winds in all directions in the storm. I can see a message in the TWO saying an upgrade will come.