Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[UpTheCreek]

whelp, this storm sure took a crapper.......

[KWT]

Its a real mess in terms of circulations but then again its not worse then say Arlene (or TD1 at the time) was in 05 as that also had multiple circulations around a broad one.

Derek, maybe the fact they found 1010mbs maybe further proof that the central LLC is decaying?

[Derek Ortt]

advisories should not be started at this time

I did not say ever

However, the preliminary data indicates a much weaker cyclone than we had on Wednesday (even though it is more tropical)

[wxman57]

I'm trying a different approach. I zoomed out more on the satellite and ran a 6-hr loop. When I do that, I see what looks like a center near 30.3N/71.6W. That position is in between the two convective complexes. Probably correct.I don't have much doubt we'll have Gabrielle by morning. Outflow is looking more impressive.

Oh, and don't expect a very low central pressure this afternoon. Environmental pressures are relatively high off the east coast. Maybe only 1009-1011mb for now.

[storms in NC]

based upon the recon, I would not upgrade

pressure much higher than it was 2 days ago (not sure how the 1006mb was derived... recon seems to have apssed through the center and found 1010mb)

Unless I see better organization, IMO, advisories should not be initiated

Really. I would have thought it would be lower. With it looking lik it has today. I guess it has fooled a few on here

[chadtm80]

1110 Lowest so far Wxman

[RL3AO]

1110 Lowest so far Wxman

That is one strong ridge.

[KWT]

wxman57, thats the LLC that came out of the eastern convective complex about 4-5hrs ago when that large convective burst went up on the western side. Still looks a bit of a strange looking mess though!

[BensonTCwatcher]

if you go here http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/# and bring up the invest. check the SST's ahead of the storm, and also look at the shear from the western half of the storm to the coast. Looks to me like improving conditions ahead. I think we'll have Gabrielle by morning as well.

[storms in NC]

From NWC of Morehead City just came out

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING PERIOD WILL BE LOW APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE
WITH PSBL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THINK VERY DRY AIR OVER AREA WILL
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SYSTEM MOVING NW
TOWARD COAST THEN MOVING N OVER ERN NC. GFS PREFERRED OVER NAM12
WITH BETTER INITIALIZATION AND NAM LOOKS TOO SLOW. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY COASTAL SECTIONS
ON SUN...OTRW GRADUALLY INCRSNG CHC POPS LATE SAT...AND CHC POPS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. USED BLEND OF GFS AND HPC QPF WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH.

[Thunder44]

based upon the recon, I would not upgrade

pressure much higher than it was 2 days ago (not sure how the 1006mb was derived... recon seems to have apssed through the center and found 1010mb)

Unless I see better organization, IMO, advisories should not be initiated

I'm not sure if they really flew over the center yet. They just went back NW, and they didn't find any W or NW winds.

[OuterBanker]

Recon didn't show anything. That's for sure. But the catch 22 is that it could organize very quickly once it reaches 75w or so. Wouldn't be enough time to warn anyone before landfall. Sticky wicket. Alex blew up in less than 24. Will they upgrade jut to be causious?

[Derek Ortt]

as most here know, I HATE upgrading without a well-defined center and without surface winds of at least 25KT (and I perfer 30KT before making an upgrade)

[dtrain44]

Given its proximity to the coast, I think the NHC might move ahead a little more quickly if they expect significant development and organization overnight. Even a strong tropical storm requires some preparations and most people aren't going to do that unless there's a clearly identified system out there. Even TD status would be enough to get some of those balls moving, especially if the NHC sees a chance for a minimal hurricane. I don't see much more than a middling tropical storm coming of this, but I think the NHC might be a bit more aggressive at 5 PM. I guess we'll all know in about twenty nine minutes..... I don't know that I see a TD here, but there is some argument for one and the proximity to land might be enough to get an upgrade.

[storms in NC]

Recon didn't show anything. That's for sure. But the catch 22 is that it could organize very quickly once it reaches 75w or so. Wouldn't be enough time to warn anyone before landfall. Sticky wicket. Alex blew up in less than 24. Will they upgrade jut to be causious?

Don't think so. They may for gale winds and ruff seas. But up it to a TD not going to happen at 5:30

[wxman57]

Recon reports indicate an LLC near 29.6N/71.3W. 25kt winds about 30 miles NE of the center.

[x-y-no]

Recon didn't show anything. That's for sure. But the catch 22 is that it could organize very quickly once it reaches 75w or so. Wouldn't be enough time to warn anyone before landfall. Sticky wicket. Alex blew up in less than 24. Will they upgrade jut to be causious?

Not if there's no closed circulation.

Haven't found ant NW or W winds yet.

[windstorm99]

Guys this might be the wrong thread but what is this?

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE TROUGH LIES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TO THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
A CLOSED LOW NEAR 28N 74W. AT 24-48 HRS...A WIND MAXIMA OF 50-75KT
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO STRETCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE CLOSED LOW IS TO THEN MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE ANOTHER FORMS OVER THE
CAMPECHE SOUND/TABASCO MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WARM
CORE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS..

[Wthrman13]

After looking carefully at the visible satellite loops, I have to agree that, although the convection has increased substantially, the low-level circulation has decreased in organization quite a bit. It looks like there is a large area of very light winds on the SW side of the circulation. However, the large-scale circulation envelope still appears well-defined, and as long as convection continues to increase, we should see it start to wrap up over the next day.

[WindRunner]

Anyone notice the nasty outflow boundary closing in on the center from the east? Completely destroying the low clouds on that side of the storm . . .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg