Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Wx_Warrior]

I would never bash a pro met...My brother is one.

Just reminding that just because one says something and one model shows something doesnt always come to now does it?

I would never want that thankless job.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why, every other job people slam and have a option on.

Convection is forming to the north, maybe a sign this is going to strengthen a little more before landfall.

[deltadog03]

Its funny how people love to bash JB....(actually its not...can we not bash the man??)

[Wx_Warrior]

What are my "options"?

Back to topic...Will SETX get any rain out of this? New EURO has it up well into East TX after landfall well to the east.

[HollynLA]

Its funny how people love to bash JB....(actually its not...can we not bash the man??)

Right, people are so quick to bash him, but I know a couple of the pro mets here got this storm completely wrong as well and not one peep about their forecast being so wrong. We should all know by now that nothing is set in stone until landfall of any system and even the NHC gets them wrong time to time as well as pro mets.

[Frank P]

the system overall looks to be moving wnw... but I'm not sure exactly where the center is looking at the vis loops... it almost hints of a relocated center more to the wsw than where the current fix is per recon.. not sure on this...... if this is the case it would have more water to work with and perhaps a little more time to strengthen...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

do the max loop and size...

[Steve]

No bash from me. What I remember from the actual cut and paste was that at least one hurricane, 'probably a major' would impact the US in 6-10 days. So we got a tropical storm (probably) out of the deal, and it gave everyone around here something to track for a week. It never got as strong as it could have because of the upper environment. But it still managed to bring a lot of flooding to NE Florida and lots of rain all the way up into coastal North Carolina with inflow.

I think it's been a pretty cool system to track. Im' also happy to have an overcast, breezy, warm day in the mid 80's. Nothing wrong with that. And if I get to see a couple of bands move through the bayou tomorrow, that's a bonus assuming there aren't any tornadoes involved down by me (most likely not as I'll be way south of the probable track).

Also, Bastardi did get the pattern recognition somewhat right. If we get another system out of the pulse (Caribbean), then that's pretty cool too as there was the double hit in Asia last weekend/early this week. Also, ridging is going to fire back into the SE. And there appears to be a pretty strong wave heading for the islands. We're probably not done with September yet.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Its funny how people love to bash JB....(actually its not...can we not bash the man??)

Right, people are so quick to bash him, but I know a couple of the pro mets here got this storm completely wrong as well and not one peep about their forecast being so wrong. We should all know by now that nothing is set in stone until landfall of any system and even the NHC gets them wrong time to time as well as pro mets.

I will not comment on this post for fear of retaliation.

[Frank2]

TD10 appears to be heading NNW at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Stormcenter]

TD10 appears to be heading NW at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

We all see things differently so I would say wnw. IMO

[Frank2]

Well, looking at the wind barbs from the local obs (seen on the visible loop), it seems to be moving more NNW at this time...

[Frank P]

TD10 appears to be heading NW at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

maybe hard for me to find a decent center to judge direction on... overall cloud pattern definitely imo is more wnw... or perhaps something between wnw and nw... if it were going NW then it should LF near the AL/FL line... or perhaps slightly east of that...

don't like to disagree with another Frank... but I am being frank about it...

[Frank2]

That's all right, Frank...

LOL

[Opal storm]

Just got back from a whole day at the beach. Surf has been building throughout the day. Still some N wind that's keeping it down but that will rapidly change when the center moves to our SW....overhead conditions tomorrow AM for sure. As for the weather...windy rainy and cool all over the place. But we are still way below average for rainfall so this storm will do us more good than bad IMO. I bought some gas for my generator just in case we lose power but I doubt we will.

[Buck]

This thing looks rough. Jerry needs some beauty sleep.

[MGC]

As tropical forecasting is so difficult no one is going to get it right all the time. I've seen everyone from the NHC on down blow a forecast. At least JB has the guts to put in print what he thinks will happen.

As far as TD 10 goes.....it does appear to have taken a NNW jog. This looks to be a Florida system. I do hope I get some decent rains from it though. I've decided for the time being not to secure my lawn furniture or make any preps for "Jerry".........MGC

[PTrackerLA]

Doesn't even appear as TD 10 will move into Louisiana at this time. Forecast for Baton Rouge calls for rain and thunderstorms with gusts to 50 mph tomorrow evening...yeah right!

[Brent]

I don't see this making landfall west of Dauphin Island.

[Steve]

How you guys can determine whether it's going WNW or NNW by the windbarbs defies my understanding of multi-vortex systems. I'm going with short-range NWS NWFL radar and this is what I see:

One possible swirl rotating SW off of Destin; another one almost due south of DeFuniak Springs rotating kinda NW toward the coast with some banding (almost looks like minichannels) and an overall heading of the system somewhere between NW and WNW on satellite.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Who knows?

Steve

[rtd2]

Looks like it will be onland much sooner than the offcial track is calling for!