BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Coredesat]

[Sanibel]

It doesn't look like a system that will retain power all the way to land. The hazy look to the Tibetan Plateau in that satellite shot is cold conditions.

[Derek Ortt]

It is likely going through an EWRC. This was as clear as crystal yesterday when the secondary band set up. This does not constitute a long term weakening trend

[hcane27]

spelling correction .....

[HURAKAN]

If this map is correct, very strong windshear just north of the storm.

[Derek Ortt]

much of that shear is the storm's outflow

I don't expect to see much more weakening based upon the satellite imagery

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... &SIZE=Full

[Chacor]

Love the new Google Earth cloud cover courtesy NRL. Image is from 1400z.

Eye seems to have disappeared again.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it's the outflow of the storm that's also getting pulled into an exiting jet streak. There's also another jet streak dropping in from currently around Pakistan, but shouldn't quite affect the storm prior to landfall. If it can speed up, that may be the only saving grace to those on the coast.

[CrazyC83]

The storm seems to have grown significantly as well...

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 NOV 2007 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 13:20:20 N Lon : 89:46:44 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 921.8mb/119.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -37.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Trend is towards intensification once again. I'd be worried about this potentially bombing out into a monster...

[Derek Ortt]

This is like a feeling of helplessness. We know what is going to happen, yet there is not much we can do about it

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/ ... &SIZE=Full

more symmetrical and the eye remains well-defined

[CrazyC83]

This is like a feeling of helplessness. We know what is going to happen, yet there is not much we can do about it

I know, this feels like the times when Katrina and Rita were getting ready to ramp up. A Cat 5 storm seems quite possible now...

[Chacor]

Can we please avoid the "OMG this is gonna blow", especially since models - and JTWC - are really going for weakening past 48 hours?

[cycloneye]

13/1400 UTC 13.3N 89.7E T5.5/6.0 SID -- Bay of Bengal


Not much stronger than the past data from SSD.

[Sanibel]

Shear charts show it moving towards shear.

Temperatures are relatively cool over India to its west. (high 70's)

[Derek Ortt]

The weakening may be overdone quite a bit, though Chacor. The models have very strange evolutions of the storm. Isobars seem to disappear in a strange fashion (pressure goes up from 1003 to 1007mb, which is already underdone, but that is besides the point)

In addition, unlike the Atlantic, there are no synoptic surveillance flights; thus, we do not have a good handle on the storm initialization in the models or the upper air pattern. This kind of looks closer to Wilma when it was approaching South Florida, models and all forecasts went to weakening to a low end cat 2, yet it nearly became a cat 4 since the models had the shear in the wrong location

As for the SSD estimate, it is one of many. The ADT, which is more applicable since we have a well-defined eye, shows intensification

[Chacor]

The weakening may be overdone quite a bit, though Chacor.

Even then, it's not exactly an "it's gonna blow!" situation. The IMD have also trended their forecast down now (06z 14 Nov forecast was 125 kt, 12z 14 Nov forecast is 115 kt), FWIW.

[Derek Ortt]

even if this weakens to 85-100KT (which may be the final landfall intensity), that would still devastate Bangladesh. remember, the 1970 cyclone was the equivalent of a marginal 3 (and Texas and western Louisiana know how bad a marginal 3 is... just look back at Rita)

[Coredesat]

It doesn't look like a system that will retain power all the way to land. The hazy look to the Tibetan Plateau in that satellite shot is cold conditions.

Well, the Tibetan Plateau is also an area of high elevations, although stable air from up there may influence Sidr as it approaches the coast.