Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Typhoon_Willie]

A lot of things can happen in 120 hours. So until it does start to go fishing all people from the eastern Caribbean to the East Coast of the USA should keep an eye on it.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241500Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 241500Z
UNCLAS/N03146//
MSGID/ GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N, 33.0W TO 10.0N, 38.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 565NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007MB.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 251500Z
SEP 2007.//

Second TFCA issued for this system.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[MGC]

I doubt NHC upgrades 96L until convection concentrates near the center. It is close though....MGC

[lamsalfl]

I guarantee that will be classified a depression at 4:00.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[CrazyC83]

Looks like TD12, if not TS Karen, to me...

[HURAKAN]

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

[KWT]

nice model maps Chad, some of those models start to bend the system back WNW again towards the end of the runs. By the way what is the drak orange model run?

[Derek Ortt]

looks a little broad to be a called a TD yet

the one in the GOM is a TD except for the official classification

This system (96L) is almost certainly going to be a hurricane (probably an 80% chance of at least cat 1) and could threaten the northern islands. The models may be underdoing the current forward speed

[gatorcane]

looks a little broad to be a called a TD yet

the one in the GOM is a TD except for the official classification

This system (96L) is almost certainly going to be a hurricane (probably an 80% chance of at least cat 1) and could threaten the northern islands. The models may be underdoing the current forward speed

Well there you go -- Luis and all in the Leewards, take note.

I do agree with Derek's assessment also given the low lattitude and forward speed.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N34W ABOUT 1520 NM EAST
OF BARBADOS...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS LARGE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt that for 97L?

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[punkyg]

Funny how every one is talking about the system in the gulf and not 96L. does 96L not interest them anymore?
of course the pro mets would say 94L is closer to TD status cause they got more data on it. well i say 96L is a TD and the NHC will upgrade this tonight, if not tonight then probably tomorrow by then this storm will look different.

believe me.

[alan1961]

more interest on this one punky because its simply nearer to land

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Well There is certainly a LARGE chance we will see someone new born here in the E atlantic soon..

[cycloneye]

24/1745 UTC 9.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean


Officially almost a TD.