Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[serenityjp]

The RUC analysis fields have some of the highest H25 divergence values and H70 omega fields off the Florida east coast than I've seen down here in a long time. I think my message to those who don't quite understand baroclinc (non-tropical) cyclogenesis would be this: The surface low isn't forming in spite of the UL shear from strong winds on the east side of the low...it's forming because of the very strong UL divergence from those winds.[/quote]


Tony, how long do you think it will take to cross Florida? How much rain do you think we will get?

[Stormcenter]

It is dealing with some serious shear right now.
A very good sign for anti-developers like myself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[PhillyWX]

12Z EC says Freeport, TX mid to late morning Sunday. I have it plotted with 1/2 mb contours. A bit north of earlier runs. Making the upper TX coast to LA the target for now.

What is the "EC"? Are you talking about the ECMWF? I don't see the 12z on their site yet if so....or, are you plotting raw data.

EC is the EURO or ECMWF and yes, he gets the data in near real time from them (aka, he and/or his employer pays $$$$ for it). I would guess he's using GEMPAK to upload the data into imagery as well. Just my guess.

wxman, not that I focus on intensity with the EURO for anything but about how deep does it have 93L/Jerry at landfall?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is dealing with some serious shear right now.
A very good sign for anti-developers like myself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Shear is dropping off rapidly it has fallen from 30 kts to 15 and below
in just a few hours. The ULL is in a position to create divergence and enhance
the development of this system. COnvection is rapidly developing around the
low on the satellite loop on the previous page which shows some very intense
thunderstorm activity near the center. This very intense thunderstorm activity
is likely to promote intensification...

[skysummit]

It is dealing with some serious shear right now.
A very good sign for anti-developers like myself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yea...but too bad that's what is helping it right now.

[wxman57]

12Z EC says Freeport, TX mid to late morning Sunday. I have it plotted with 1/2 mb contours. A bit north of earlier runs. Making the upper TX coast to LA the target for now.

What is the "EC"? Are you talking about the ECMWF? I don't see the 12z on their site yet if so....or, are you plotting raw data.

Yes, I get the raw data here. I can select to plot it in 1/2 millibar increments for a better analysis of where it's putting the surface low. And I like to plot the 500mb heights in 10 meter increments to really define the ridge. EC shows a breakdown of the western side of the ridge Saturday and a hooking track toward Freeport, kind of like Rita. I suspect landfall may well be north of there into SW LA.

[skysummit]

12z EURO...

[wxman57]

wxman, not that I focus on intensity with the EURO for anything but about how deep does it have 93L/Jerry at landfall?

12Z EC has 1010mb at landfall. We found with Dean/Felix that it was about 100mb too high. Let's hope it's not that far off with Jerry.

[Stormcenter]

It is dealing with some serious shear right now.
A very good sign for anti-developers like myself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yea...but too bad that's what is helping it right now.

In the short term but not in the long term.

[gatorcane]

anybody want to bet Tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued for the South Florida waters from Tampa Bay south around through Melborune on the East Coast including West Palm Beach through Miami?

Wouldn't surprise me if we see some tonight....

[skysummit]

It is dealing with some serious shear right now.
A very good sign for anti-developers like myself.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yea...but too bad that's what is helping it right now.

In the short term but not in the long term.

LOL...yea, exactly. In the long term, shear should relax in the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

if the "center tries to consolidate more east as some members say may happen than South Florida needs to really watch this thing.

to me it looks like the center may be trying to form more E of South Florida than we think, closer to Andros and Freeport -- well offshore of Palm Beach 100 miles or so

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

anybody want to bet Tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued for the South Florida waters from Tampa Bay south around through Melborune on the East Coast including West Palm Beach through Miami?

Wouldn't surprise me if we see some tonight....

Depends of if they upgrade it to a depression or storm based on
observations in the bahamas

Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 °F / 28 °C

[cycloneye]

Ok guys,lets cut the back and forth between two members.You can talk about the differences between you by PM,not continue the back and forth here.

[gatorcane]

Current Miami Radar loop showing intense activity offshore South Florida (Palm Beach County, Broward, and Miami-Dade)

As our invest continues to develop, it wouldn't surprise me we could see wind gust surpassing 50mph in some of the squalls....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se5vs.html

Looking really good this afternoon. Lets hope Jerry '07 is a copy version of Jerry '95.

[hial2]

anybody want to bet Tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued for the South Florida waters from Tampa Bay south around through Melborune on the East Coast including West Palm Beach through Miami?

Wouldn't surprise me if we see some tonight....

Depends of if they upgrade it to a depression or storm based on
observations in the bahamas

Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 °F / 28 °C

Can you advise this station's web site?? Thanks

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 19:15 UTC

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS has almost no shear at this time tomorrow.

The UL likely is not going to have the influence on shearing this that I thought yesterday (isn't as sheared as I thought it would be currently even)

[caneman]

Well, they better do it in a daggum hurry, If GFDL and ships verify we'll be getting 40 mph winds here in 36 hours and at 48 hours just off the coast at my location as much as 60 mph. More than just a LA or TX event. It looks like we could be in for some significant rainfall for us Floridians. BTW- I tinnk it will be LA and not TX all the models seem to be locking on there. Hopefully not to strong.