TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Sorry, I'm not to good with UTC times. In looking at it you can tell its old, for the fact the LLC is to far east. Thanks for correcting me.

[O Town]

That quickscat is old Look at the purple numbers at the bottom of image.

Okay I see it says to look at the bottom of the page for pass time.
I can't read those numbers though, what do they say?

[Chacor]

Sorry, I'm not to good with UTC times. In looking at it you can tell its old, for the fact the LLC is to far east. Thanks for correcting me.

Hi Matt, this should help with UTC times: viewtopic.php?p=1595442#p1595442

[Thunder44]

That quickscat is old Look at the purple numbers at the bottom of image.

It was probably taken before 10:17 UTC this morning. The timestamp it at the bottom left side of the page . It shows very broad area of low-pressure, and elongated from SW to NE, centered near 10N and 37W.

Edit, Matt's image is old, but the image I have here is from this morning:

[O Town]

Okay who can read those purple numbers?
I read it as B:03B, what the heck does that mean?
Thanks..........

[Fego]

"ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS LOW IS FAIRLY
BROAD PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN IT'S
VICINITY...ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXTENDS FURTHER W WITHIN THE ITCZ. THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING GRADUALLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. "

8:00a.m. NHC TWD

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[windstorm99]

Dont like the look of those models.....

[Lowpressure]

This has the initial signature of a big storm many will have to pay attention to. Even the recurve models bend back west.

[O Town]

Dont like the look of those models.....

NOt much of a consensus quit yet. They are all over the place still. The Bams are keeping it south which is good for now.

[canegrl04]

Dont like the look of those models.....

The intialization models for Felix were correct for its general path.If this trend bears out,we will be seeing a monster in the Gulf

[LarryWx]

This has the initial signature of a big storm many will have to pay attention to. Even the recurve models bend back west.

Based on history, what happens between now and 48 W may tell me a lot. IF it becomes a trop. cyclone east of 48 W and IF it has any NW movement east of 48 W, that would be a very strong indication to me that it will never hit the lower 48. Here's why I'm saying this:

There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the contiguous U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the contiguous U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W.Since 1851, for storms that did had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC).

Gladys of 1975 track link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...LADYS/track.gif

[dtrain44]

Interesting point, Larry. Does that take into account the latitude issue? How many storms have been as far south as 10 N, moved NW, and recurved? In my limited experience following the tropics, it seems that the southern formation/tracks have been all the rage this year and something that starts this far south might be able to move NW and be pushed west later more easily than in the past.

Of course, it's way too premature to speculate about landfall, but the lack of a model consensus and an interesting pattern so far this year in the tropics will make this one "fun" to track if it develops.....

[Lowpressure]

This has the initial signature of a big storm many will have to pay attention to. Even the recurve models bend back west.

Based on history, what happens between now and 48 W may tell me a lot. IF it becomes a trop. cyclone east of 48 W and IF it has any NW movement east of 48 W, that would be a very strong indication to me that it will never hit the lower 48. Here's why I'm saying this:

There is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the contiguous U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the contiguous U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W.Since 1851, for storms that did had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC). The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC).

Gladys of 1975 track link:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...LADYS/track.gif

Great work Larry, I agree with you, my point was this is probably not a fish and it has a huge signature currently. Flloyd comes to mind for some reason.

[gatorcane]

I have to admit that is one large area of showers and thunderstorms in the Central Atlantic. It would seem that it may be Humberto down the road...

[Derek Ortt]

the Dvprak estimates apparantly are too weak to receive a too weak this morning. This implies development should be slow

Also, the globals... I am not sure what to make of them as they all stop the storm now when it is moving to the west steadily

[RevDodd]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...LADYS/track.gif[/quote]
Floyd comes to mind for some reason.[/quote]

Floyd had that recurve track...but was well west of 48 degrees when it took place.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[curtadams]

I think fish is unlikely. These large systems usually are slow to develop into cyclones. I figure another day, quite possibly two, and by then it will be too far west to miss everybody giving the strong ridges we're seeing this year.

[DrewFL]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 10 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-109

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NOAA MAY FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
ON THE WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINING 13/0000Z.
3. REMARKS: THE MISSION SCHEDULED INTO GABRIELLE FOR 10/1200Z WAS
CANX BY NHC AT 09/2100Z. THE P3 AND AEROSOUNDE MISSIONS WERE
ALSO CANX.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[hcane27]

In the "for what it's worth department" ....

Since 1851 ... (caveat ... early records are suspect)

There have been 17 systems pass within 120 miles and 15 days of 91L's 7 am CDT reported "position" .....

12 recurved into the North Atlantic east of the Caribbean
3 struck the Canadian Maritimes
2 struck the U.S. East Coast
September 1906 / South Carolina,North Carolina
Dora 1964 Northeast Florida
5 affected the Caribbean
3 affected the U.S.
Inez 1966 Southeast Florida
Frederic 1979 Alabama, Northwest Florida
Ivan 2004 Alabama, Northwest Florida
1 affected Mexico
Inez 1966