Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL (available at AccuWeather PPV site) has a Cat 3 Felix about to make landfall on the Yucatan exactly where Dean did, pretty much. I'd post an image over on the model thread, but it wouldn't work.

[skysummit]

New GFDL:

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I'm wondering if those models are detecting a possible weakness in the ridge, sure seems like it based on how they tend to bend more towards the north at the end.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sky Summit-

I got scolded about posting model images earlier, although in my opinion, the reason for a separate model thread is to eliminate all the extra posts as people post each 6 hour increment of the GFS as it comes in. Whereas your post lays down all the models at once.

GFDL is a little less than fully reassuring, as that could be far enough North to feel predicted trough over Texas and turn North, possibly towards South Louisiana, but until some pro mets start saying that, I wouldn't panic.

[Scorpion]

Interesting northward shift. I think this might be a trend.

[skysummit]

Sky Summit-

I got scolded about posting model images earlier, although in my opinion, the reason for a separate model thread is to eliminate all the extra posts as people post each 6 hour increment of the GFS as it comes in. Whereas your post lays down all the models at once.

GFDL is a little less than fully reassuring, as that could be far enough North to feel predicted trough over Texas and turn North, possibly towards South Louisiana, but until some pro mets start saying that, I wouldn't panic.

I'm not worried about it. We can all see the weakness in 5 - 7 days. I think most are waiting for the globals to jump all over it. The EURO will be out in a few so if it shows a change around the same time frame, I may begin to believe it. The globals are also underestimating the strength of this by 5 days I believe.

This is the 2nd run in a row that the GFDL shifts north though. Could this be the beginning of a trend? Who knows. All we can do is continue watching.

About the model posts....I realize that, but there's not tons of people logged on right now like during the day so I didn't think it would be much of a problem. If it is, mods please remove it.

[wxmann_91]

Interesting northward shift. I think this might be a trend.

It could easily shift back south. The models really don't have a good handle on Felix yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

Interesting northward shift. I think this might be a trend.

yep, a couple of the models even have it almost clearing the channel. They may be junk models, but we we'll have to see if the others will trend north in time....I may be wrong, but I just think it's kinda freaky that the high would be do the EXACT same thing it did with Dean..I mean it's always possible it will build west, but not as far west as Dean, which may allow it to curve around it towards the north once it enters into the Gulf. I think it's too far out to know what time of weakness it might feel in the gulf. Some of those models may be onto something.

[skysummit]

Interesting northward shift. I think this might be a trend.

yep, a couple of the models even have it almost clearing the channel. They may be junk models, but we we'll have to see if the others will trend north in time....I may be wrong, but I just think it's kinda freak that the high would be do the exact same thing it did with Dean..I mean it's always possible it will build west, but not as far west as Dean, which may allow it to curve around it towards the north once it enters into the Gulf. I think it's too far out to know what time of weakness it might feel in the gulf. Some of those models may be onto something.

Plus those models that have it clearing the channel are older runs. They didn't begin shifting north till 18z.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, before I go to bed, one tiny bit of possible good news, is guesstimating from the floater loop, Future Felix has turned/wobbled back almost due West, and is tracking barely North of 12º now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, if the high does build west and allow no weakness, this will probably be the last time this will happen, being that we are entering a time where more disturbances will begin to turn these storms North... I guess we might as well feel lucky while we can, because it's not going to last.... (this is assuming we get more future storms developing in the same region).

[skysummit]

Ed...what's your latest image time stamp?

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, before I go to bed, one tiny bit of possible good news, is guesstimating from the floater loop, Future Felix has turned/wobbled back almost due West, and is tracking barely North of 12º now.

Well, it suppose to be going west this early in the track, and it probably will continue west for the next 4 to 5 days, then all bets are off.

[Brent]

New GFDL:

Very interesting indeed.

[Chacor]

ATCF says we have Felix.

AL, 06, 2007090106, , BEST, 0, 122N, 612W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1014, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, D,

[Chacor]

No reaction to that in eight minutes. Must be a new record.

[RL3AO]

No one can read it lol.

But it is not a surprise.

[Brent]

[TheEuropean]

01/0615 UTC 12.1N 61.2W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

That means 35 kts. Should be Felix very soon.

[Thunder44]

504
WHXX01 KWBC 010704
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0704 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062007) 20070901 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 0600 070901 1800 070902 0600 070902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 61.2W 12.8N 64.2W 13.4N 67.3W 14.5N 70.6W
BAMD 12.2N 61.2W 12.8N 64.3W 13.6N 67.5W 14.4N 70.8W
BAMM 12.2N 61.2W 12.9N 64.2W 13.7N 67.4W 14.7N 70.6W
LBAR 12.2N 61.2W 12.7N 64.4W 13.5N 68.2W 14.3N 71.9W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 0600 070904 0600 070905 0600 070906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 73.7W 17.1N 79.6W 18.7N 84.5W 20.8N 89.0W
BAMD 15.1N 73.9W 16.3N 79.4W 17.9N 83.6W 20.0N 87.1W
BAMM 15.7N 73.8W 17.5N 79.5W 19.4N 84.0W 21.6N 87.7W
LBAR 15.0N 75.5W 16.2N 81.9W 16.4N 86.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 70KTS 84KTS 93KTS 97KTS
DSHP 70KTS 84KTS 93KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 55.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
NNNN

6z Models initialize at 35kts.