wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:It really looks to be organizing further north... don't think this is bound for SA and I think development is looking more and more likely. Right now is the middle of the day when Dean in it's early stages looked dead!
It's already far enough north that it would likely miss SA, but the question is does it track west across the southern Caribbean toward Central America or does the high to its north weaken and allow a WNW track across NE Caribbean? And remember that every single GFS ensemble run was taking Dean north of the Caribbean, while the operational GFS run kept it to the south. The Euro did very well with Dean, though it's prediction of central pressure was only 100mb off.And Euro says almost due west with 94L.
NOGAPS also did well with Dean, perhaps because it's always had a left bias. Haven't looked at the NOGAPS yet... Hmm, doesn't show anything there.
I honestly can't see a straight west track at all. The ridge is starting to break down here(afternoon storms are all over the place, there were NONE during Dean, and the heat has backed down from the 100's during Dean to seasonal norms of low 90's), and plus you have to look at the calendar. Climo argues against it with September just a few days away.
