Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[gatorcane]

CMC has it over Palm Beach County in South Florida at 120 hours then heading WNW to the Tampa Bay area by 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=120hr

[skysummit]

chad - I think a few did...

The GFS didn't until after it was developed.

[Tropics Guy]

Think the southern area of the convection (around 20 N) will be the area to develop , further north there is still too much shear, though it is forecast to relax.

TG

[Comanche]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

[storms in NC]

Good read: Look at the rain fall not good for us that are hot and dry here

000
FXUS62 KRAH 201520
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL
HELP CREATE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. TEMPS IN CENTRAL VA JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S. JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER TEMPS WERE IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100F IN
PLACES STILL SEEMS OK...ALTHOUGH IF THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN VA
SINKS INTO NORTHERN NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER MAY COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THEIR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGH TEMPS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO MENTION OF
AFT/EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFT/EVE BREAKS DOWN AS FOLLOWS:

1) MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
SFC DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT AND THE
HIGHEST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF
1.24"...RNK HAD 1.39" AND MHX HAD 1.69". THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
SFC DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON FELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THEY REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH...DEWPOINTS IN VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN
HIGHER DUE TO SFC CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. WITH TEMPS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE UPPER 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THOUGH...THAT DRY
AIR ALOFT ASSOC/W THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE
A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT/EVE.

2) SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...
CURRENTLY A WELL DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED MORE OR LESS
EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THERE IS QUITE AN AIRMASS DIFFERENCE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. IN CENTRAL NC...TEMPS WERE IN THE
MID 80S AS OF 14Z...AND STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL VA...TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID 60S AS OF 14Z...AND WITH
THE BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE WILL BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SFC RIDGING...CLOUD COVER AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE RELATIVE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL VA...AND STRONG HEATING / SUNNY SKIES SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NC...AND
THIS MAY HELP DRAW THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...IT IS TOUGH TO TELL IF THERE ARE ANY
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. AN ANALYSIS OF 250 MB HEIGHT/WIND DATA FROM THE 12Z
RAOBS SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INVERTED WAVE ALONG THE AL/GA/FL
GULF COAST...WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOC/W THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY STREAMING NORTH INTO AL/GA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
250MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THEN EAST ON TOP OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA LATER THIS AFT/EVE.

3) SUMMARY FOR THIS AFT/EVE...
WELL...GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY EITHER DIRECTLY OVER OR
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (AREAS
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE NC/VA BORDER)...AND THAT THERE WILL BE
DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING NORTH AND THEN EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NC AND
SOUTHERN VA AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z 4KM SPC WRF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NC/VA FOOTHILLS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY ADVECTS EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHERN NC. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL
HAPPEN REMAINS TO BE SEEN...HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE ABOVE SEEMS TO
JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON (ACCORDING TO THE GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS)...AND THE
PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HOT! AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING MID AND
UPPER WIND FLOW FROM THE NW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1440-1445M RANGE AND 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 22C WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER COULD ACT TO COUNTER THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS THE
VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN`S
REMAINS...DISPERSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT PWS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
2.0" TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5C/KM AT THAT SAME
TIME. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
COMBINATION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING HIGHLY SKEPTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WITH PWS AROUND
2.0"...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. LET`S KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSS FOR
MORE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

WITH THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUN...THE NAM AND GFS TOTALLY FLOPPED
POSITIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
LATE WEEK. THE NAM IS NOW THE COOLEST AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK AND
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WITH THE HIGH WELL OFF TO THE NE.
WENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD
CALL FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME SMALL SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION GIVEN HIGH PW AIRMASS.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOTH 00Z/20 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS
NOT GOOD AS MODELS DEPICT A RELOADING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY...
RESULTING IN AN DECREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS AT 5 TO 10
MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED THAT FOG
SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. VFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

THERE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A BOUNDARY LINGERS.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
WE CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS... EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE AS FOLLOWS

AUG 20 AUG 21 AUG 22
GSO 100/1983 100/1983 100/1983
RDU 100/1983 101/1983 101/1983


THE MODERATE AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ARE NOT
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS NO APPARENT WEATHER FEATURE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. CURRENTLY...THE MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL
CURRENTLY AT GSO AND RDU IS 0.34" AND 0.26" RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT AUGUST RAINFALL DEFICITS LEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF AUGUST AND A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST
AUGUSTS ON RECORD.

LISTED BELOW IS THE DRIEST AUGUST AT GSO AND RDU ON
RECORD.


TOP 5 DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD.

GSO RDU
(SINCE 1928) (SINCE 1944)

1) 0.71/1972 0.81/1950
2) 1.13/1979 1.01/1997
3) 1.19/1962 1.13/1984
4) 1.40/1932 1.31/1956
5) 1.44/1983 1.52/1976


HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO RECORD WARMTH THIS MONTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT... IF WE EXPERIENCE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH RDU WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD... AND GSO WOULD FALL A
TENTH OF A DEGREE SHORT OF THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THUS... THE RECORDS LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

THE CURRENT MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT RDU AND GSO AS OF AUGUST
19TH IS 84.1 AND 83.4 RESPECTIVELY.


TOP 5 WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ON RECORD.

GSO RDU
(SINCE 1929) (SINCE 1944)

1) 80.0/1975 80.6/1995
2) 79.7/1988 80.5/2006
3) 79.4/2006 80.3/1988
4) 79.4/1995 80.2/2005
5) 79.3/2005 80.0/1999

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...RHJ
CLIMATE...CBL/BD

[gatorcane]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

link?

[JPmia]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

Yeah, that's nice, he said that about Dean too. But I think this could be a probably IF it develops an LLC. I see no where else it can go but west toward the SE US.

[x-y-no]

12Z NAM stronger and heading towards Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Huh ... awfully slow ... looks like it's blocking westward movement by building the ridge southward over the eastern GOM.

Also ... notice the TS it has following Dean into the Yucatan? Not so likely, IMHO, but sure wouldn't be good ...

[Comanche]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

link?

It is a paid service. sorry.

[gatorcane]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

Yeah, that's nice, he said that about Dean too. But I think this could be a probably IF it develops an LLC. I see no where else it can go but west toward the SE US.

unfortunately yes - and it has alot of real estate out in front of it with water temps in the low to mid 80s....and in the upper 80s around the Bahamas and into the Gulf stream....

[seaswing]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

Did he give specifics? where, when what cat.?

[JPmia]

12Z NAM stronger and heading towards Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Huh ... awfully slow ... looks like it's blocking westward movement by building the ridge southward over the eastern GOM.

Also ... notice the TS it has following Dean into the Yucatan? Not so likely, IMHO, but sure wouldn't be good ...

X-Y-No, it looks like the CMC also slows the storm up when it shows landfall on the EC FL. then heads west into the Gulf...and it appears to strengthen it over land? lol

[fci]

CMC is the only model that I have seen that takes this system and makes it a TS or Hurricane; or even a closed low.

Unless I am missing something on the model runs.

Also, CMC has had this coming from the Southern Bahamas not nearly as far north as this one is situated.

Speaking as one who is in East Central South Florida (whatver one calls Palm Beach County); I just can't see a system that develops this far north (at 22 or 23) just heading due west or SW and affecting SE Florida.

If the southern part of this wave, east of the Lesser Antillies is the concern it is way too far south to affect us in Florida.

If I were to venture a guess, just based on my experience in following storms and NOT scientific data; based on only model picking up on this; if 92L is to develop I do not see it heased towards SE Florida. Carolina's??? Maybe.

Straight to Southern Florida as a Tropical Wave and rainmaker? More likely.

Hey, I may be eating crow if the CMC is right but I need a whole lot of convincing to believe that a TS or Hurricane will come to SE FLa from 92L. (Of course I would never think that a Tropical Storm would regenerate over Oklahoma and that happened yesterday so ANYTHING is possible!)

[MWatkins]

At this time of year, synoptics gets a nod. It has to. The models are always going to see a rainy, closed 1007MB low running over Dekkar, but they don't always sniff out every system in the Atlantic.

The GFS didn't see Isabel when it was a Cat 4...NOGAPS didn't see Dean until last Friday.

Look at the visible image...there is a long band of clouds feeding from north of the system all the way back to the ITCZ.

Low clouds on the SW side are bending a little...and the upper environment is only going to get more and more favorable.

Not saying this is going to explode this afternoon...but there is no reason to dismiss this system because the GFS doesn't see it.

It's that time of year...

[x-y-no]

12Z NAM stronger and heading towards Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Huh ... awfully slow ... looks like it's blocking westward movement by building the ridge southward over the eastern GOM.

Also ... notice the TS it has following Dean into the Yucatan? Not so likely, IMHO, but sure wouldn't be good ...

X-Y-No, it looks like the CMC also slows the storm up when it shows landfall on the EC FL. then heads west into the Gulf...and it appears to strengthen it over land? lol

CMC strengthens everything at every opportunity. That's one model I almost completely disregard when it comes to the tropics.

[Comanche]

Just watched JB's video. He is bullish this system developing and moving across Fla into the gulf.

Did he give specifics? where, when what cat.?

He isn't quite the alarmist he used to be in prior seasons, more conservative. He doesn't say what strength yet, just the probable path into the Gulf rather than up the east coast. But he does feel strong that it develops. If he is right, this could easily be a katrina/rita situation as the energy in all but the western gulf is completely untapped thusfar.

[gatorcane]

CMC is the only model that I have seen that takes this system and makes it a TS or Hurricane; or even a closed low.

Unless I am missing something on the model runs.

Also, CMC has had this coming from the Southern Bahamas not nearly as far north as this one is situated.

Speaking as one who is in East Central South Florida (whatver one calls Palm Beach County); I just can't see a system that develops this far north (at 22 or 23) just heading due west or SW and affecting SE Florida.

If the southern part of this wave, east of the Lesser Antillies is the concern it is way too far south to affect us in Florida.

If I were to venture a guess, just based on my experience in following storms and NOT scientific data; based on only model picking up on this; if 92L is to develop I do not see it heased towards SE Florida. Carolina's??? Maybe.

Straight to Southern Florida as a Tropical Wave and rainmaker? More likely.

Hey, I may be eating crow if the CMC is right but I need a whole lot of convincing to believe that a TS or Hurricane will come to SE FLa from 92L. (Of course I would never think that a Tropical Storm would regenerate over Oklahoma and that happened yesterday so ANYTHING is possible!)

I see your points but there is no reason why it wouldn't head WNW into SE Florida. You can clearly see the stream of fast moving clouds racing W to WNW between the invest and Florida...the ridge is strong and this is the time of year (through about mid Sept) where the ridging can push things west into Florida.....

Just step outside and feel the deep tropical easterly windflow that has opened the door for something to hit us from the east....

[Ivanhater]

Way to early to say of course....but everything is looking good for development as most pros have said...just glancing at the models, if this thing hits south Florida and moves in the gulf, it will likely explode, but of course plenty of time to watch it

[JPmia]

Why does Florida seem to get hit by cartoon characters lately? Wilma, soon to be Felix? J/k, don't sound the alarms until we see a LLC folks. Anyone see one yet?

[skysummit]

Why does Florida seem to get hit by cartoon characters lately? Wilma, soon to be Felix? J/k, don't sound the alarms until we see a LLC folks. Anyone see one yet?

I think it has something to do with Disney World, Universal Studios, Nickelodeon, etc.