Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[CrazyC83]

Just in...135kts sustained with gusts to 165kts. That is gusting to 190mph!!!!!! Holy crap that is strong.

In the Western Pacific, that is quite routine.

[cycloneye]

Luis there is no such thing as a "super-typhoon" officially.

Still at 95kts (930hPa).

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.9N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 170NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM EAST 280NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 29.1N 128.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 141800UTC 33.4N 134.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151800UTC 35.9N 142.2E 270NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT

Grrr those agencies and their different intensity forecasts.

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

THE WORSE PART OF THE STORM IS HAPPENING AS WE SPEAK.

[wxmann_91]

If anything, IMO, the intensity of this system should've been lowered, not raised. The western part of the storm is completely eaten away.

looks like shear is starting to impinge upon this system

I'd look from weakening from ehre on out and would wager anything that this does not strike japan as a cat 3. Not sure why JTWC always forecasts these strong systems to hit japan as a 3, when they always weaken rapidly before landfall

I'm taking you up on this bet. I forecast this to make landfall as a major hurricane. The loser admits he was wrong.

Need some more specifics. How about the loser posts a thread in which he admits that his forecast was completely wrong and the other man had the forecast right. That way it doesn't get lost among the shuffles within a thread.

[cycloneye]

Okinawa is getting the eastern eyewall now.Let's hope that there are no tragic news from there.

[HurricaneBill]

Okinawa is getting the eastern eyewall now.Let's hope that there are no tragic news from there.

Indeed. Okinawa has experienced tragedy due to typhoons in the past. In 1956, 11 U.S. Marines drowned in a rip current produced by Super Typhoon Emma as it was heading towards Okinawa.

[Chacor]

Futenma
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 55 MPH (48 KT) gusting to 87 MPH (76 KT)

Naha
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 55 MPH (48 KT) gusting to 93 MPH (81 KT) (direction variable)

Kadena AB
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 KT) gusting to 79 MPH (69 KT) (direction variable)

[wehrkampjr_21]

It's 9am here now. The wind and rain have really picked up from last night. It seems to be getting stronger by the minute. Some of the trees have started to lose branches and two of the Jeeps in our parking lot are really starting to sway back and forth. Other than that, no other damage to report, as least from the part of the island we are located. Keep you updated..

[HurricaneBill]

Need some more specifics. How about the loser posts a thread in which he admits that his forecast was completely wrong and the other man had the forecast right. That way it doesn't get lost among the shuffles within a thread.

Regardless of Man-Yi's intensity at landfall, this could cause a lot of damage in Japan if Man-Yi takes its forcasted path.

[Chacor]

Need some more specifics. How about the loser posts a thread in which he admits that his forecast was completely wrong and the other man had the forecast right. That way it doesn't get lost among the shuffles within a thread.

Regardless of Man-Yi's intensity at landfall, this could cause a lot of damage in Japan if Man-Yi takes its forcasted path.

If the JTWC is right with XT-trans it will be slightly better (since winds won't actually be consolidated near the centre) and it'll be just another wind storm to the Japanese...

[MiamiensisWx]

The pressure has decreased to 940 mbar at Naha Airport, but the winds have not exceeded 60 kts (1-min). The pressure reading is unimpressive, especially because of the fact that this storm is located over the western Pacific (weaker background pressures). Personally, I do not believe JTWC's estimates. The JMA's estimates were too generous (10-min). This storm never exceeded 120 kts (1-min). Since Okinawa's elevation is variable, Naha may be sheltered from the maximum winds which may occur over exposed locations. The eyewall is moving over the vicinity...

[windstorm99]

Here an awsome view from the Aqua Satelitte.

[cycloneye]

TY 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 13 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 26.0N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 280NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 30.4N 129.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 150000UTC 34.5N 137.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160000UTC 36.8N 143.7E 270NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT

[KatDaddy]

Naha Airport is in the eastern eye. Winds S-29MPH


Conditions at Jul 12, 2007 - 08:44 PM EDTJul 12, 2007 - 07:44 PM CDTJul 12, 2007 - 06:44 PM MDTJul 12, 2007 - 05:44 PM PDTJul 12, 2007 - 04:44 PM ADTJul 12, 2007 - 03:44 PM HDT
2007.07.13 0044 UTC
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 29 MPH (25 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Mist
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 80 F (27 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 27.76 in. Hg (0940 hPa)
ob ROAH 130044Z 19025KT 2000 R36/1000V1500N -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 FEW020CB 28/27 Q0940 RMK 3ST006 5CU010 2CB020 A2778 CB 15KM E-SE MOV NW

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[windstorm99]

For those interested in seeing an absolutely awsome radar shot and loop of MAN-YI making landfall see this link.Make sure you zoom in.

Okinawa radar

[Ptarmigan]

My prediction of Man-yi becoming a Category 5 have come true.

[Chacor]

My prediction of Man-yi becoming a Category 5 have come true.

Not quite. Cat 5 = 140 kts. NRL now has Man-yi back to 125 kt, down from 135. Very close to Naha now.

[Chacor]

Here's the JMA's 01Z update:

<13日10時の実況>
大きさ 大型
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 那覇市の付近
Current position: Vicinity of Naha City
中心位置 北緯 26度10分(26.2度)
東経 127度30分(127.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 930hPa
中心付近の最大風速 50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速 70m/s(135kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 東側 370km(200NM)
西側 190km(100NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 東側 600km(325NM)
西側 520km(280NM)

[Chacor]

Wind from the SW (220 degrees) at 70 MPH (61 KT) gusting to 85 MPH (74 KT) (direction variable)

Naha getting very close to typhoon-force sustained winds...