Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

802
URNT12 KNHC 211700
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL932007
A. 21/16:23:00Z
B. 29 deg 34 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. NA deg 86 nm
F. 164 deg 037 kt
G. 088 deg 072 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 462 m
J. 22 C/ 457 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 15:34:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 88 / 70NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Jerry at 2 PM!!!

[caneman]

Come guys this is a weak system and I as one said it would never amount to much. Most I and others called for was perhaps a mid range TS and at this point it will be lucky to get to that. Yes, there is lots of rain a little wind and some tornados but honestly we get worse thunderstorms and winter storms than what we've had with this so far. LEts keep it in perspective. It's had a ULL with it all along and unless that miracalously disappeared........

[JonathanBelles]

Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -37.5C
From ADT, what does the difference that is needed to tropical status and is the above supported by recon?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Somehow people were expecting too much from this. The area affected by "Jerry" are getting beneficial rainfall and don't have to worry about damaging winds, except in the case of a tornado.

What do you want? A hurricane. Not likely.

[wxman57]

Vortex appears to confirm what I'm seeing on satellite - that the LLC is reforming a bit to the north near 29.55N/85.75w, or where I've indicated in the analysis below. That's only 30 miles off the coast of Florida. Track will need to be shifted right on the next advisory, as it may be inland by morning. I don't think you could argue it's a TS based on the analysis. Mostly 10-20 kt winds at the surface except for a few small pockets.

[chadtm80]

For those with the "this is nothing" comments.. I sat through Tornado warnings most of the night last night.. It was very frightning and many homes destroyed here.. Nothing my ....

[fci]

Chad:
That is a frightening feeling that leaves you feeling very helpless unlike during a Hurricane where you had a chance to prepare.

However, form a "Tropics" standpoint this system is really not a big deal.

Not for one second do I minimize the terror of a Tornado Warning; but you can, and do; get those from Summer Thuderstorms and Winter/Spring frontal passages.

[chadtm80]

Latest:

Looks stunningly similar to the one you posted at 1:13

[miamicanes177]

I don't think you could argue it's a TS based on the analysis. Mostly 10-20 kt winds at the surface except for a few small pockets.

And those few small pockets have sustained TS force winds at the surface which makes this a TS. They call it "maximum" sustained winds for a reason. It doesn't need 40mph winds everywhere to be called a TS.

[chadtm80]

Chad:
That is a frightening feeling that leaves you feeling very helpless unlike during a Hurricane where you had a chance to prepare.

However, form a "Tropics" standpoint this system is really not a big deal.

Not for one second do I minimize the terror of a Tornado Warning; but you can, and do; get those from Summer Thuderstorms and Winter/Spring frontal passages.

But it wasnt from a Frontal Passage.. The tornado was from this storm....
What people are saying is this storm is weak as long as you ignore the bad strong weather part.. errrr....

[Dean4Storms]

I agree wxman57, the center looks to be south of Panama City around 75 miles or so (more than 30). One thing I have noticed in the past few hours is that the convection is beginning to wrap the center. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a small increase in winds/decrease in pressure but like you said it is running out of seas.

[MGC]

I don't see landfall in Mississippi, more likely western Florida. The only way I get the storm is if a new center reforms futher south or a nearly west turn which I don't see. I'm inclined to say around the Pensacola area......MGC

[cpdaman]

well i'm very glad this system is this far NORTH if it had been a degree or so south in latitude we may be talking about humberto part II and if it were two degrees south in latitude possibly a much bigger problem

Joe B. says to forget about long trackers and watch for close in development so far he be right

[jasons2k]

I think closer to Destin...or right at Destin.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see landfall in Mississippi, more likely western Florida. The only way I get the storm is if a new center reforms futher south or a nearly west turn which I don't see. I'm inclined to say around the Pensacola area......MGC

Maybe even as far east as Navarre or Ft. Walton Bch.

[poof121]

Are we sure that's not the upper low near the coast? Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I'm just trying to learn.

Thanks.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[miamicanes177]

NHC dismissed the FL winds and SFMR data as being unrepresentative of the storms intensity and kept it at 35mph.

[cycloneye]

Chad,change title of header of forum as is now Tropical Depression TEN.