Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[PhillyWX]

One interesting note: the last September named storm that failed to reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Henri in 2003 - 17 storms ago.

Hermine was a TS in 2004 (I think that's the one you were thinking of).

That one barely made a TS landfall near Cape Cod I believe.

[OuterBanker]

Wow 89 pages and still no name, amazing. Thread is now longer than cat 5 Felix.

BTW, I'm not worried until I see mushrooms sprouting (satellite trucks) at the local Ramada and Comfort Inn.

[CrazyC83]

One interesting note: the last September named storm that failed to reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Henri in 2003 - 17 storms ago.

WOW...

The storms since then that formed in September:

2003 - Cat 5 Isabel, Cat 2 Juan, Cat 3 Kate

2004 - Cat 5 Ivan, Cat 3 Jeanne, Cat 4 Karl, Cat 1 Lisa

2005 - Cat 3 Maria, Cat 1 Nate, Cat 1 Ophelia, Cat 1 Philippe, Cat 5 Rita

2006 - Cat 1 Florence, Cat 3 Gordon, Cat 3 Helene, Cat 1 Isaac

16 consecutive named storms in September have been hurricanes. (17 if Felix is counted as September; I am counting it as August)

[wxman57]

I will be very surprised if they don't initiate advisories on something at 5... It also formed last Friday!

Don't remind me, I had plans for Labor Day weekend that got canceled because of Felix. I had plans for tonight and the coming weekend that are now canceled. Can't remember when I last had a day off. Going on two weeks of 12+ hr shifts. Even though we'd alerted our east coast clients to the potential hurricane threat on Tuesday, I was really hoping 99L would be torn apart yesterday. In 2005, all the storms seemed to form at 10am Saturday.

[Brent]

One interesting note: the last September named storm that failed to reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Henri in 2003 - 17 storms ago.

Hermine was a TS in 2004 (I think that's the one you were thinking of).

That one barely made a TS landfall near Cape Cod I believe.

August storm.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Buck]

One interesting note: the last September named storm that failed to reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Henri in 2003 - 17 storms ago.

Hermine was a TS in 2004 (I think that's the one you were thinking of).

That one barely made a TS landfall near Cape Cod I believe.

He said September storms. Hermine was August.

[Brent]

Latest:

It looks SO much than yesterday. Dramatic improvement. It's really amazing what a little less shear will do.

[Buck]

They are entering the western convection now.

[PhillyWX]

One interesting note: the last September named storm that failed to reach hurricane intensity was Tropical Storm Henri in 2003 - 17 storms ago.

Hermine was a TS in 2004 (I think that's the one you were thinking of).

That one barely made a TS landfall near Cape Cod I believe.

He said September storms. Hermine was August.

I should have looked at the date more closely.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[txwatcher91]

well i go away for 24 hours

because i didn't want to watch a day of "it's dead" posts

and guess what nearly everyone thinks it's dead from ALL the 20 pages i went through

but wasn't it forecast to just start getting together late tonite/tommorrow

put my money down for development

i turned the weather channel on twice today and on both intro's they were talking about it, (didn't catch the tropic. update) but it's on their mind, and accuweather's mind) wait till fri nite b-4 killing it off.

sorry dude, but it's dead, even the METs here are saying that..It can't get together if there's nothing left to get together and it's running out of time anyway to become anything by the time it reaches the coast. don't waste your time with this one.

My, my how things have changed today. It appears to be organizing at a steady rate and could be a TS by this afternoon or tonight.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing multiple centers, once with each of the cloud clusters

[cpdaman]

i wonder how stubborn this SE ridge will be to lift out?

lets hope the ridge/trough forecasts have better timing than the shear models/forecasts

[Regit]

The HWRF or GFDL would be great news for the Carolinas.

Figuring out the strength forecast is going to be very important for the NHC and the states. I know in SC at least, TS= no action, Cat 1= Voluntary Evac, Cat 2= Mandatory Evac. Because of how close the system is, they are in a sort of "one chance to get it right" situation.

[storms in NC]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[seahawkjd]

So what effect would the two centers have? Would one take over or would they basically fight each other and stay weak?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wxman57]

I'm seeing multiple centers, once with each of the cloud clusters

Yeah, I see what you mean. Convection associated with the eastern cluster (and the initial LLC) appears to be diminishing and re-firing farther west, though I don't see an LLC there. It's just a big disorganized mess right now. Going to take quite a while to consolidate but I thin it will eventually become Gabrielle. The slow organization decreases the hurricane risk, at least.