Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Stormcenter]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 211453
TCMAT5
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.7N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 31.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

How in the heck did the center of circulation move that far north overnight?

Well good to see the storm finally has the center positioned correctly . This is probably the original Canaveral center taking over as the main center. The SW Florida center was from the ULL. We are seeing slow development as the surface overpowers the upper. I was trying to tell people yesterday that the center would resolve poleward in a weak system like this.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 211454
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, it might be that they just had to issue the watches and warnings so they went with it now...although I do disagree with them calling it subtropical (I would have called it TD10).

[yzerfan]

Seems like they pretty much admit that in the disco:

ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE... ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.

[Sanibel]

Weak spiral headed west of Panama City:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Latest: STD 10

[micktooth]

State of Emergency Declared in Louisiana:

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl0 ... 46dc7.html

Do you think this is overdoing it for this type of storm? Or justified because of recent events?

[CrazyC83]

State of Emergency Declared in Louisiana:

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl0 ... 46dc7.html

Do you think this is overdoing it for this type of storm? Or justified because of recent events?

It was issued last night when this was still a subtropical low (Invest). They are highly anxious there though so I'm not sure what to say...

[green eyed girl]

State of Emergency Declared in Louisiana:

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl0 ... 46dc7.html

Do you think this is overdoing it for this type of storm? Or justified because of recent events?

We still have many residents in FEMA trailers and I think they just want everyone to be aware in case this develops further.

[JonathanBelles]

I dont think this declaration is need for such a weak system.

[Stratosphere747]

State of Emergency Declared in Louisiana:

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl0 ... 46dc7.html

Do you think this is overdoing it for this type of storm? Or justified because of recent events?

It is just part of the process to activate certain personnel and systems.

[Terry]

In all seriousness, I dont think this declaration is need for such a weak system.

The NHC is danged if they do and danged if they don't.

[Stormcenter]

I dunno if this will ever make it to LA. It looks like it's trying to make landfall now in the FL Panhandle.

Well that's what I thought too but the NHC believes it will hook back west before making landfall. Who knows with these tropical or sub tropical systems.

[Stratosphere747]

In all seriousness, I dont think this declaration is need for such a weak system.

You obviously don't know how OEM systems work. Statewide or local.

[jasons2k]

I dunno if this will ever make it to LA. It looks like it's trying to make landfall now in the FL Panhandle.

Well that's what I thought too but the NHC believes it will hook back west before making landfall. Who knows with these tropical or sub tropical systems.

I took down my post. Based on satellite it's further offshore than I thought...but It still looks like LF before it gets to LA

[miamicanes177]

I dunno if this will ever make it to LA. It looks like it's trying to make landfall now in the FL Panhandle.

Well that's what I thought too but the NHC believes it will hook back west before making landfall. Who knows with these tropical or sub tropical systems.

I took down my post. Based on satellite it's further offshore than I thought...but It still looks like LF before it gets to LA

The difference between the track of Derek Ortt and the NHC is staggering. It will be very interesting to see whose track verifies in the end.

[HollynLA]

Well that's what I thought too but the NHC believes it will hook back west before making landfall. Who knows with these tropical or sub tropical systems.

I took down my post. Based on satellite it's further offshore than I thought...but It still looks like LF before it gets to LA

The difference between the track of Derek Ortt and the NHC is staggering. It will be very interesting to see whose track verifies in the end.

Wow, you're right. I just took a look at Ortt's track. If it were to verify, that would mean most of the models and the NHC is wrong which would be astonishing this closer. I guess we'll see.



*edited by southerngale to fix quote

[jasons2k]

The difference between the track of Derek Ortt and the NHC is staggering. It will be very interesting to see whose track verifies in the end.

I just checked it out and I strongly believe Derek has the right idea. This is headed for the FL Panhandle IMO, and pretty quickly.