Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[caneman]

Worth noting that the convective complex in the Central Gulf/southwest of the 93L center has quickly dropping pressures too, and a ship an hour ago reported 1005 mb from it's vicinity. Lower level vorticity is increasing in this area too indicating a surface circulation possibly developing. I would not be surprised if a new invest is issued by this afternoon at this rate.

The action is in the NE Gulf. YOu can clearly see he LLC now around 28 and 85. There will be no new invest. Buoy in this area is reporting 29.70 very low for something not yet classified. Further winds at this buoy have been at or near TD. This should be given TD classification at 5:00 based on obs. Looks to be inland later todat thoughModels blew this one.. Looks like landfall in Panhandle.

[Sabanic]

Worth noting that the convective complex in the Central Gulf/southwest of the 93L center has quickly dropping pressures too, and a ship an hour ago reported 1005 mb from it's vicinity. Lower level vorticity is increasing in this area too indicating a surface circulation possibly developing. I would not be surprised if a new invest is issued by this afternoon at this rate.

The action is in the NE Gulf. YOu can clearly see he LLC now around 28 and 85. There will be no new invest. Buoy in this area is reporting 29.70 very low for something not yet classified. Further winds at this buoy have been at or near TD. This should be given TD classification at 5:00 based on obs. Looks to be inland later todat thoughModels blew this one.. Looks like landfall in Panhandle.

Looks to me also like it will skirt coast moving to WNW. Is this what you guys are seeing also on models? Will be a sloppy event for a good portion of the coast

[One Eye]

The latest sat images clearly show storms to the south and west rapping around the center. This is the first sign of a tropical system. It looks more probable to being upgraded sometime this morning.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210908
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT DOES NOT YET HAVE THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT OFFSHORE NOAA
AUTOMATED STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

[Sabanic]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210908
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT DOES NOT YET HAVE THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT OFFSHORE NOAA
AUTOMATED STATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

A possible TS. Hmmm. If it continues to get better organized, and stays over water as forecast we could be looking at a rather strong TS by later today.

[tailgater]

Pressures still dropping
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN
and this isn't at the center. South Southwest of this buoy.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:



Looking pretty good!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LATEST:



Looking pretty good!!!

Very close to the coast only about 50-80 miles off shore, but it appears to be moving west-northwest. Very likely is already a strong depression or weak storm. Recon supposed to have lefted at 18z/5am est?

[HURAKAN]

Station SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL

C 0900 29.41 -84.86 96 332 70 28 30 - - - - 29.67 -0.08 77.4 84.4 76.8

This one must be close to the center, 28 knts and 1004.6 mb.

[tailgater]

The LLC looks to have relocated over nite, not just move NNW. Located SSW of Apalachicola, on radar I can't yet tell which direction it's heading but do think it'll be classified off the next mission's findings along with SAT and radar.

[Sabanic]

The LLC looks to have relocated over nite, not just move NNW. Located SSW of Apalachicola, on radar I can't yet tell which direction it's heading but do think it'll be classified off the next mission's findings along with SAT and radar.

Looks like it is heading WNW/NW. Coast skirter all the way to the MS coast. At least that is what I am seeing right now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Looks pretty well organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought a recon supposed to be the system by now. When does it get into it.

[ronjon]

Ok, NHC it's time to classify this storm as at least a subtropical depression. We have 1005 mb pressure, LLC, convection wrapping around the LLC, and a well-defined circulation field. We don't need a reconn to upgrade or visible SAT with the RAD and buoy data. Come on guys, grab some coffee and get the word out.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HenkL]

from the TWO (530 AM EDT):

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

It looks like the planned 4th flight has been postponed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok, NHC it's time to classify this storm as at least a subtropical depression. We have 1005 mb pressure, LLC, convection wrapping around the LLC, and a well-defined circulation field. We don't need a reconn to upgrade or visible SAT with the RAD and buoy data. Come on guys, grab some coffee and get the word out.

I agree, everything says it is.

[Sabanic]

from the TWO (530 AM EDT):

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
BE INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.

It looks like the planned 4th flight has been postponed.

It says WILL BE investigating.

[ronjon]

Correction - the latest pressure is 1004 mb. Let's upgrade soon! This storm may be weak but it will probably reach or may already be tropical storm strength. LF may be only 24-36 hrs away.

[cycloneye]

A. 21/1800Z
B. NOAA2 0510A CYCLONE
C. 21/1300Z
D. 27.4N 86.8W
E. 21/1400Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


At 9:00 AM EDT the plane departs.