Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[seahawkjd]

Definetely becoming less exposed. Looks like some very good convection is pulling directly over the circulation now.

[HURAKAN]

THE EXPANSION OF THE BURST:

EXPOSED:


NOT EXPOSED:

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.

I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.

Yeah, only 40mb...close call. At least JB got it right that there would be development in this area

[storms in NC]

Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.

I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.

Why do you think this? It could very well do so. But for some reason NC don't do what they say. Have to see how it moves today. Sould have a better pin point later this afternoon. But SC-NC line up needs to keep a eye on it till it moves more north

[HURAKAN]

If you count from -(infinity) to +(infinity), JB made a really, almost perfect, call!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

THE EXPANSION OF THE BURST:

EXPOSED:


NOT EXPOSED:

center still half exposed, but improving. The big convection burst will likely start a chain reaction of forming convection

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based on speed alone, if it's moving that fast, LF is more likely. If it slows, it's more likely to miss.

Overall, LF looking less likely though IMO.

I just adjusted my track eastward to just grazing the Outer Banks. Won't be too much of a storm there. They may be disappointed in the amount of rain,too.

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.

Yeah, only 40mb...close call. At least JB got it right that there would be development in this area

Umso did the little computers: GFDL,GFS,EURO..ECT...Don't take a genius to deduct from all the pretty colors..

[seahawkjd]

So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.

Depends if your really NATE or not..LOL

[Chacor]

So a bit of a derailment and I apoligize completely for it, but is the chat room down or is there some special rank you have to have to enter it? I keep getting forbidden errors.

Don't use the link on s2k. Use this for java: http://www.esper.net/pjirc/storm2k.html

[Shullate]

Does it look to anyone else like the center is a bit further west than the forecast point?

[wxman57]

Doesn't look too healthy this morning. I suspect recon might have a hard time finding TS force winds:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks way better then it did yesterday, when they found 48 knot flight level winds. The center is mostly under the convection, at least the core. Also a buoy near it shown 35 knot winds.

[wxman57]

Does it look to anyone else like the center is a bit further west than the forecast point?

Just a hair but it's insignificant. Don't focus on where the center of this poorly-organized storm is or is heading. Focus on where the heavy squalls are. The squalls have the strong wind, the strong wind isn't at/near the center like a well-organized TC.

[Derek Ortt]

the center looked better defined earlier when it was not covered by the convection

I suspect we will see intensification today due to the convection over the center increasing the low-level convergence

[wxman57]

Looks way better then it did yesterday, when they found 48 knot flight level winds. The center is mostly under the convection, at least the core. Also a buoy near it shown 35 knot winds.

It does look better than yesterday. I saw that buoy to the NW of the center. That's probably the only area with any TS-force winds this morning. I don't see anything to indicate TS force winds in the NE, SE, or SW quadrants. It doesn't show any signs of rapidly getting better organized, so not too much of a threat to the Outer Banks. Just a moderate TS. Hurricane threat is about gone now. Just not enough time and conditions aren't favorable enough.

[miamicanes177]

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.

If you're referring to JB then well he nailed this thing and performed better than any pro met I have heard. If I recall, he was not forecasting 970mb until just prior to landfall on sunday. Today is saturday morning at 9am. Regardless of its intensity at/near landfall he performed extremely well and stuck to his guns when other mets got cold feet. Kudos to JB in my opinion for his excellent call on this storm.

[wxman57]

Also, central pressure looks to be in the 1010mb range now. Not quite that 970mb someone was predicting, but close.

If you're referring to JB then well he nailed this thing and performed better than any pro met I have heard. If I recall, he was not forecasting 970mb until just prior to landfall on sunday. Today is saturday morning at 9am. Regardless of its intensity at/near landfall he performed extremely well and stuck to his guns when other mets got cold feet. Kudos to JB in my opinion for his excellent call on this storm.

Oh, I agree that Joe called it almost a week ago. He was just a bit too enthusiastic as to the intensity, probably biased by his high landfall numbers. We notified our clients on Tuesday morning of a potential hurricane threat on the Mid Atlantic Coast this weekend. Of course, we removed the hurricane threat from the forecast now, as the chances Gabrielle will become a hurricane prior to reaching NC in 24 hours are remote.

One problem with Joe is that he talks about just about every thunderstorm in the tropics as if it could become a hurricane at some point down the road. He's kind of like the Canadian model in that respect. He'll never miss one that does develop, but about 95% of the times when he calls for possible development nothing does. I enjoy watching him, though.

[bjackrian]

It looks like the outer edge of the big plume of convection to the northwest of the center is just starting to come into view on Morehead radar:
Loop: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Still: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MHX&loop=no

[flwxwatcher]

Yes. J.B. made this call several days in advance and that was a great call but like WXMAN57 pointed out he did overdo it with his intensity forecast of a 970 MB or lower storm by Sunday Morning.