Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

144 hours

And out to sea it goes.But it was a more left run that brushed Cape Hatteras.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

739
WHXX04 KWBC 050521
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    99L

INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP  5

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            29.2             73.6            85./ 7.0
   6            28.9             72.6           108./ 9.0
  12            29.1             71.5            80./ 9.6
  18            29.7             70.6            59./10.1
  24            30.0             70.0            60./ 5.9
  30            30.1             70.1           318./ 1.3
  36            29.9             70.0           161./ 2.4
  42            30.0             69.8            55./ 2.7
  48            30.1             70.1           281./ 3.3
  54            30.3             70.9           284./ 7.1
  60            30.5             72.1           280./10.0
  66            30.6             73.4           274./11.7
  72            30.6             74.4           270./ 8.6
  78            30.7             75.2           281./ 6.8
  84            31.0             75.8           293./ 6.4
  90            31.4             76.4           303./ 6.2
  96            31.5             76.9           279./ 3.7
 102            31.8             77.0           337./ 3.7
 108            32.2             76.7            35./ 4.4
 114            32.7             76.5            21./ 5.4
 120            33.0             76.0            62./ 5.6
 126            33.5             75.6            41./ 5.3

[Meso]

The 00z GFDL still bringing it to cat 3 and 105 kt

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

0z ECMWF, takes it further back west toward the SC coast by the weekend again:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

0z NOGAPS, takes it back toward Georgia:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGA ... sloop.html

[Thunder44]

832
WHXX01 KWBC 050712
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0712 UTC WED SEP 5 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070905 0600 070905 1800 070906 0600 070906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.5N 72.7W 29.3N 72.3W 28.8N 72.5W 28.1N 73.1W
BAMD 29.5N 72.7W 29.9N 70.9W 30.8N 69.5W 31.5N 69.1W
BAMM 29.5N 72.7W 29.4N 72.5W 29.2N 72.8W 28.8N 73.7W
LBAR 29.5N 72.7W 29.8N 71.0W 30.6N 69.6W 31.3N 68.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070907 0600 070908 0600 070909 0600 070910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.7N 73.8W 29.1N 74.0W 32.9N 72.8W 36.0N 69.5W
BAMD 32.2N 69.9W 34.1N 73.0W 37.1N 74.1W 40.9N 68.2W
BAMM 28.5N 74.9W 29.0N 77.0W 31.1N 78.4W 33.6N 74.7W
LBAR 31.9N 65.8W 34.4N 60.6W 35.1N 55.8W 32.8N 50.2W
SHIP 48KTS 59KTS 59KTS 58KTS
DSHP 48KTS 59KTS 59KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 74.3W DIRM12 = 86DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 76.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Bane]

ophelia redux?

maybe. the water is warmer this year than it was in 2005, or at least it seems to be.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Makes landfall in SC!!.A change from last nights 00z run that brushed Cape Hatteras.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

Inside SC.

[Thunder44]

90 hours

Makes landfall in SC!!.A change from last nights 00z run that brushed Cape Hatteras.

I see landfall in NC

[cycloneye]

120 hours

It moves NNE thru North Carolina and the coast of VA.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Makes landfall in SC!!.A change from last nights 00z run that brushed Cape Hatteras.

I see landfall in NC

Yes you are right,NC. But is a change indeed from past runs.Mark Sudduth and Jesse,prepare for the chasing.

[cycloneye]

168 hours

Out to sea.

[hurricanetrack]

Chasing? Heck, we'll just sit outside and watch it as it goes by. Save a lot on gas on this one!



Just hope it is not some 930mb bomb. 965 would be fine with me

[hurricanetrack]

Seriously though, if this thing ever gets going and actually hits land, we'll have a kick-butt 10-meter wind tower with a live web cam on it set up as close to the strongest wind area as possible. You will be able to watch it update every 60 seconds- free of charge. We will also have a digital data log of the data collected for future reference.

[Nimbus]

Despite the eastward drift 99L has not moved south any further. The ridge seems to be taking its time rolling east so the models have trended west some with those Georgia SC Landfalls. The low level steering currents are obviously weak east of 75 but we should see some southerly movement from the ridge next.

[storms in NC]

Seriously though, if this thing ever gets going and actually hits land, we'll have a kick-butt 10-meter wind tower with a live web cam on it set up as close to the strongest wind area as possible. You will be able to watch it update every 60 seconds- free of charge. We will also have a digital data log of the data collected for future reference.

Thanks Mark that would be very cool.
Have my peanut boild and ready to go and sit on back porch to watch.LOL

[Weatherfreak14]

so now the models tend a track back towards the south more giving a bigger threat to SC.

[HURAKAN]

803
WHXX04 KWBC 051121
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 29.4 72.9 85./ 8.0
6 29.4 72.4 84./ 3.9
12 29.3 71.8 103./ 5.2
18 29.3 71.5 90./ 3.2
24 29.4 71.4 18./ .6
30 29.4 71.8 271./ 3.6
36 29.2 72.4 258./ 4.6
42 29.2 73.1 269./ 6.0
48 29.5 74.1 285./ 9.7
54 29.8 75.1 287./ 8.7
60 30.2 76.1 290./ 9.8
66 30.3 77.1 276./ 8.7
72 30.6 77.9 290./ 7.8
78 30.8 78.5 288./ 5.6
84 31.2 78.9 317./ 5.0
90 31.8 79.2 331./ 6.3
96 32.3 79.8 311./ 7.0
102 32.7 80.3 308./ 5.5
108 33.0 80.6 319./ 4.8
114 33.2 80.8 315./ 2.2
120 33.4 80.8 349./ 2.1
126 33.8 80.7 22./ 4.2

[cycloneye]

Look how slow GFDL moves this,before it makes landfall in South Carolina.

[HURAKAN]

Initialized Sep 05 00Z