Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Shawee]

Interesting that two of the storms on that image are basin-crossers (Irene-Olivia and Joan-Miriam).

has any storm ever jumped back over and re-entered the Atl. Basin? (not saying this one will)

[punkyg]

Oh look TD6 changed his appearance again.

[HURAKAN]

HATTIE-SIMONE-INGA, 1961

[Derek Ortt]

motion looks like 270-275 to me

[RL3AO]

has any storm ever jumped back over and re-entered the Atl. Basin? (not saying this one will)

I want to say there was a storm that crossed into the Pacific and then crossed into the GOM, but didn't survive.

[AJC3]

It's definitely pulling up slightly. Maybe 280* or more.

Hmmm, the 0Z GFS has the 500 mb steering sort of pointing more WNW than W. Posting image on model thread now...

If the 00Z GFS has any kind of consistency with it's previous runs, it will show the mid level flow backing more toward the west to the north of the TD6 as the H50 ridge builds westward in tandem with the TC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's definitely pulling up slightly. Maybe 280* or more.

Hmmm, the 0Z GFS has the 500 mb steering sort of pointing more WNW than W. Posting image on model thread now...

If the 00Z GFS has any kind of consistency with it's previous runs, it will show the mid level flow backing more toward the west to the north of the TD6 as the H50 ridge builds westward in tandem with the TC.

Indeed, as seen on the model thread, the ridge builds with it, and looks like a track South of Dean.

[canegrl04]

(Disclaimer: I am not a pro met)Looks like another Mexico hit. Unless the ridging subsides this season,the US is safe from hurricanes

[HouTXmetro]

IMO this may be the last Southrunner. As the season progresses the Ridge is bound to give in. Should we see more development in the same areas the US would likely be threatened.

[Ed Mahmoud]

(Disclaimer: I am not a pro met)Looks like another Mexico hit. Unless the ridging subsides this season,the US is safe from hurricanes

Probably not even a Mexico hit. Over at model thread, 0Z GFS close to 18Z GFS. Central America.

[CrazyC83]

I think Edith is the best barometer for this one...

[skysummit]

I think Edith is the best barometer for this one...

What year was Edith?

[Coredesat]

(Disclaimer: I am not a pro met)Looks like another Mexico hit. Unless the ridging subsides this season,the US is safe from hurricanes

Evidence for this amazing generalization?

[skysummit]

It's all going to come down to timing with the setup the GFS is showing in 5 days. Lets see if the 00z GFDL still slows it down by then.

[fci]

I think Edith is the best barometer for this one...

What year was Edith?

Edith was 1971

[skysummit]

I think Edith is the best barometer for this one...

What year was Edith?

Edith was 1971

Thanks. IF that trof does in dead come down, it does seem probable IMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my uneducated and non-professional opinion, if future Felix can get near the lat/long of Cancun (based on 0Z GFS 144 to 168 500 mb ridge) it would come Northwest then North towards the Central Gulf coast.

But it looks like any further South of that, it wouldn't really see the trough passing through Texas, and it isn't forecast to get as far North as Cancun.


If it stays on a 280º heading it would appear the Gulf is safe, if it trends North of that, not so. But so far, this looks like a path South of Dean.


Hope for some imput from professional mets, and I'll check the model thread until bed time.

[Ptarmigan]

Edith was 1971

Edith made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. Something worth keeping an eye on TD6. However at this point, the compiter models have been consistent with this one hitting Central America. Too early to tell though.

[Category 5]

(Disclaimer: I am not a pro met)Looks like another Mexico hit. Unless the ridging subsides this season,the US is safe from hurricanes

As the caveman says

uhhhhh, what?

[wxmann_91]

The GFS prognosticates a very impressive upper level environment over TD6/future Felix in about 4 days. Can't figure out why it pretty much dissipates this storm. Shear in the low levels and mid levels aren't strong at all.

CIMSS analysis shows greater low level convergence, on top of the strong diffluence over the system. I suspect it is a TS now.