Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Sanibel]

Possible center jump to northwest near convection. Grabbing more northerly part of wave axis perhaps. Not sure since system is hard to determine in structure.


Should bulk up with convection when it hits warmer waters just to its west.

[Zardoz]

...a westerly track is most likely.

Thanks. If 94L develops, I'll keep my friends on Ambergris Cay in Belize posted on what it's up to. From your plot, it appears that it may drop by and pay them a visit.

[wxman57]

...a westerly track is most likely.

Thanks. If 94L develops, I'll keep my friends on Ambergris Cay in Belize posted on what it's up to. From your plot, it appears that it may drop by and pay them a visit.

I think it's a bit early to say that we have anything but low confidence in 94L's future. But I'm very wary of the global models' tendency to turn such systems northwest too quickly when there's clearly a strong ridge keeping pace to the north.

[windstorm99]

[RL3AO]

Don't take these early runs too seriously guys.

[windstorm99]

Continues to organize in my opinion...

[gatorcane]

probably not going to hit SA as the models are already shifting north

[skysummit]

All the 18z models including the 12z Canadian, Nogaps, and GFS ensembles....

[KWT]

Maybe a one-two hit then wxman57 with 94L following very closely in the wake of Dean. I think the exacts of its track are a little uncertain however it does look likely its going to head into the Caribbean region. I tend to think some of the models are too northerly right now given its current movement and the strong high thats to othe north. The GFS does breifly weaken it a touch before making it stronger again in about 72hrs time.

does look a little more active in terms of convection right now.

[Brent]

It really looks to be organizing further north... don't think this is bound for SA and I think development is looking more and more likely. Right now is the middle of the day when Dean in it's early stages looked dead!

[gatorcane]

It really looks to be organizing further north... don't think this is bound for SA and I think development is looking more and more likely. Right now is the middle of the day when Dean in it's early stages looked dead!

climatology says West then WNW at some point. We will see.

[fci]

Looks like only models going north are BAM, and wholely discounted by the experts.

wxman57's Euro plot looks like this wants to follow Uncle Dean's route.

Just hope that if it develops it is only a weak little nephew!!!

[Sanibel]

IMO 2007 is showing us that once a system gets going in the hurricane belt it goes major in the Caribbean. Looks very possible if 2007 pattern is established like I assume.

[caneman]

The only one taking the due west course is the BAMD so don't really think there is good handle on this. Don't bank on the due West course.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like another caribbean bound system! Let's just hope that this doesn't become as strong as Dean did!

[gtalum]

IMO 2007 is showing us that once a system gets going in the hurricane belt it goes major in the Caribbean. Looks very possible if 2007 pattern is established like I assume.

Um, 1 is not a pattern.

[wxman57]

It really looks to be organizing further north... don't think this is bound for SA and I think development is looking more and more likely. Right now is the middle of the day when Dean in it's early stages looked dead!

It's already far enough north that it would likely miss SA, but the question is does it track west across the southern Caribbean toward Central America or does the high to its north weaken and allow a WNW track across NE Caribbean? And remember that every single GFS ensemble run was taking Dean north of the Caribbean, while the operational GFS run kept it to the south. The Euro did very well with Dean, though it's prediction of central pressure was only 100mb off. And Euro says almost due west with 94L.

NOGAPS also did well with Dean, perhaps because it's always had a left bias. Haven't looked at the NOGAPS yet... Hmm, doesn't show anything there.

[gatorcane]

latest steering currents. They have already shifted from WSW to due West ahead of our invest....notice the break in the subtropical ridge just north of the Greater Antilles....

Right now if we could take a snapshot of the steering currents it would follow directly in the footsteps of Dean...but I bet it is going to change down the road.

I am not expecting the path Dean took on this one.

[windstorm99]

One more view at models...

[PhillyWX]

IMO 2007 is showing us that once a system gets going in the hurricane belt it goes major in the Caribbean. Looks very possible if 2007 pattern is established like I assume.

The pattern reminds me a lot of 1974 and 1988...high pressure over the SE which blocked off the GOM for much of the season. I know '74 had a Gulf Hit with Carmen but that was it. '88 had a pair TS and a Cat 1 (Florence) in the GOM. Everything else that developed was either Western Atlantic or cruised through the Caribbean.