Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Brent]

Down to a 65 mph TS at 11am.

[simplykristi]

What was the peak wind before landfall? When I stopped looking last evening, this was a tropical storm!

Kristi

[Brent]

What was the peak wind before landfall? When I stopped looking last evening, this was a tropical storm!

Kristi

Officially 85 mph.

Interesting note from the discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

[KWT]

Made landfall as a 85mph category-1 hurricane though there was some data to suggest it was even stronger then that from recon right before landflal including flight level winds at 98kts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

What was the peak wind before landfall? When I stopped looking last evening, this was a tropical storm!

Kristi

Officially 85 mph.

Interesting note from the discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

I went to bed to friggin early last night Brent...LOL Darnit!

[CrazyC83]

Made landfall as a 85mph category-1 hurricane though there was some data to suggest it was even stronger then that from recon right before landflal including flight level winds at 98kts.

That suggests it might have been 90 mph (80 kt) at landfall.

Why did it happen? I think it comes down to the ridge pushing it, combined with spending extra time over warm water in an environment with virtually no shear or dry air. It was small enough to prevent land interaction from being a significant factor.

['CaneFreak]

Yet another record broken in a weird 2007 season.

[Downdraft]

BTW, I didn't have a chance to repsond, but I was a little irritated yesterday --

Someone cited "shallow waters off the Texas coast" as a reason why this would not intensify. As if Charley and Claudette were not an example enough - let this be an example that a storm CAN and WILL intensify over nearshore shelf waters if conditions are favorable.

Wouldn't shallower waters have a higher heat content?

No, deeper waters have a higher heat content b/c a factor in TCHP is the depth of warm water. However, I think this is negated by the fact that shallow waters can't upwell deep, cold water.

There is a lot of question as to whether Andrew actually intensified in the shallow bay prior to landfall and also as it passed through the Everglades it was able to keep it's strength. Haven't read much on it so don't know much about it but we have seen several cases of rapid intensification over shallow waters. I think water depth is just one part of the equation.

[HURAKAN]

This is why tropical meteorology is so interesting. Who would have imagined in their wildest dreams that 90L would become a history-making hurricane. Humberto replaced Hugo and now he has his own little corner in the GREAT BOOK OF HURRICANES.

[attallaman]

This was from the 5am discussion.

12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND

At 7am, the advisory noted that the system was at 30.3N and 93.6W. So the storm is traveling south of the points prior indicated. This also may mean that my call last night for Humberto to track just south of or over Alexandria may be right. 12 hours, it's not going to be at 30.9N and 93.5W, rest assured of that.

Steve

That's pretty close to 30.0N and 90.0W isn't it. BTW your posts are good.

[CrazyC83]

This is why tropical meteorology is so interesting. Who would have imagined in their wildest dreams that 90L would become a history-making hurricane. Humberto replaced Hugo and now he has his own little corner in the GREAT BOOK OF HURRICANES.

At least this probably isn't enough for Humberto to be replaced...maybe in 2013 he'll go after his "father"...

[KWT]

CrazyC83, thats of course providing that Humberto doesn't decide to swing back into the gulf of mexico, not forecasted to do by the NHC but you never know with these systems.

Still a fairly strong tropical storm at 65mph, will be interesting to see how long it can last as a TS and eeen more interesting to see how long it can keep going as a TD...hope it doesn't do an Erin!
Shouldn't do that though!!

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, thats of course providing that Humberto doesn't decide to swing back into the gulf of mexico, not forecasted to do by the NHC but you never know with these systems.

Still a fairly strong tropical storm at 65mph, will be interesting to see how long it can last as a TS and eeen more interesting to see how long it can keep going as a TD...hope it doesn't do an Erin!
Shouldn't do that though!!

Yeah, all bets are off if he goes back into the Gulf. It did happen in 1985 with Juan, and of course with Allison...

[Puddinhead]

This was from the 5am discussion.

12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND

At 7am, the advisory noted that the system was at 30.3N and 93.6W. So the storm is traveling south of the points prior indicated. This also may mean that my call last night for Humberto to track just south of or over Alexandria may be right. 12 hours, it's not going to be at 30.9N and 93.5W, rest assured of that.

Steve

That's pretty close to 30.0N and 90.0W isn't it. BTW your posts are good.

30.0N and 90.0W?!? Wait......that's me, dang it!!!

LOL

[simplykristi]

Thanks for the replies!

I was watching the radar returns on TWC at 9:30 PM last night It looked like the storm had a well-formed center of circulation and strengthening. I thought that it was too close to shore to develop any further. It's amazing what a storm can do. I shouldn't be surprised after what Charley did in 2004.

Kristi

[mightyerick]

It is... impossible.
90L wasnt... even... suppoused to be Humberto....
sorry... 75 KT??? I cant... talk...

[chadtm80]

[CrazyC83]

Thanks for the replies!

I was watching the radar returns on TWC at 9:30 PM last night It looked like the storm had a well-formed center of circulation and strengthening. I thought that it was too close to shore to develop any further. It's amazing what a storm can do. I shouldn't be surprised after what Charley did in 2004.

Kristi

Just like Charley, we seemed to nail it (some of us said hurricane as early as yesterday afternoon) when no one else did...I am sure some NHC mets were thinking this would happen though but there were in-house disputes.

This is why we can't always rely on the media and we sometimes have to go with our own gut feelings...

[skysummit]

I love that so many people wrote this off yesterday. There were comparisons to Cindy on how Cindy strengthened into a hurricane right before landfall, and replies were made "no way his will be like Cindy". LOL....I LOVE IT!

This was actually worse than Cindy!

[JtSmarts]

That is a great radar loop Chad. I advise all the collectors to grab it, it really shows how Humberto came together before landfall.