Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[yzerfan]

Beaumont Enterprise is reporting a storm-related death. No details yet.

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/site/ ... p?brd=2287

[duris]

Steve, I was wondering if the NWS is downplaying this as well since the flood watch only goes to I-55. Watching the still radar on my phone, clouds, then thunderstorm on my way in this morning, was thinking we have much higher chance of rain. But then looking at the radar loop, seems we just got a small band and that the giant ball of convection I was looking at on still radar may indeed stay to our west. Regardless, it does not seem that they acknowledge the looping possibility, at least explicitly, so am thinking our rain chances may be higher for several days, while they have it tapering off by Friday. One thing's for sure, it's nice to watch this one from a safe distance.

[green eyed girl]

Speaking of terrible work, WWL's on air met Laura Buchtell said we had a 70% chance of rain today, but most of the rain would be in the western parishes. She then went on to say that all indications are that the system would get caught up in the front and head northward toward Tennessee. I mean I had just read the NHC saying that all indications are that it may plague the Gulf for a few days. Wth? So I'm driving and she comes on the 50,000 watt radio station and says we'd have a "few" thunderstorms today, but most in the western parishes as the storm would ride north of us.

Well duh. But you're on tv. And you probably have a degree. Don't you know that until a system cuts off from its moisture supplies and channels that it's going to be picking up moisture and will bring rain bands through? This isn't some upper system sapping energy 15,000 feet up and raining in Missouri or southern Illionis. This is at the freaking surface! And you're showing the radar on TV and there's this massive line creeping eastward that's going to cross your entire viewing area. 100% chance of rain darling. And while you're at it, there's a nice little storm blowing up ahead of the system that's going to get Steve super wet as he crosses the street from the parking garage to the office. And I got a shot of that from the I-10 on my way into work.

What are these people thinking and why do people put their trust in such misinformation? It's unreal. Btw, view is SSW.



Steve

My brother who lives in New Orleans just called me and told me the very same thing you
posted but also said the other TV Mets. in the area are also saying the very same thing she said that it won't be a big deal and no flooding rains. By the way he said they had a pretty serious storm about an hour ago in the downtown part of the city.

God, do I miss John Gumm

[jasons2k]

Beaumont Enterprise is reporting a storm-related death. No details yet.

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/site/ ... p?brd=2287

Heard on Beaumont Radio a carport blowing down in Bridge City caused it somehow

[KWT]

Looks like the highest winds from this system were an impressive 84 mph at Beaumont, not bad considering it was meant to come inland as a 45kt tropical storm according to yesterdays ideas!

[jasons2k]

BTW, I didn't have a chance to repsond, but I was a little irritated yesterday --

Someone cited "shallow waters off the Texas coast" as a reason why this would not intensify. As if Charley and Claudette were not an example enough - let this be an example that a storm CAN and WILL intensify over nearshore shelf waters if conditions are favorable.

[feederband]

BTW, I didn't have a chance to repsond, but I was a little irritated yesterday --

Someone cited "shallow waters off the Texas coast" as a reason why this would not intensify. As if Charley and Claudette were not an example enough - let this be an example that a storm CAN and WILL intensify over nearshore shelf waters if conditions are favorable.

Wouldn't shallower waters have a higher heat content?

[green eyed girl]

Anyone believe that Humberto will loop back into the Gulf like some models are suggesting?

[DrewFL]

BTW, I didn't have a chance to repsond, but I was a little irritated yesterday --

Someone cited "shallow waters off the Texas coast" as a reason why this would not intensify. As if Charley and Claudette were not an example enough - let this be an example that a storm CAN and WILL intensify over nearshore shelf waters if conditions are favorable.

Really.
Storms intensify over Lake Okeechobee in Florida and that's less than 10' deep right now.

[KWT]

I think the fact it was able to strengthen so close to land was probably in part due to its small size. Had it been alarge system, the circulation would have absorbed far more dry air then this small one did, Charley was exactly the same in that respect. while systems like Katrina which are far larger took a far greater sweep of drier air.

[Steve]

Not sure duris. 15"+ piling up just west of Abbeville.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I don't think we see that, but 2-4" seems reasonable based on this:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

If the system is moving east and north, we're going to be under that rainshield as it rotates around the center. Hell, Pensacola would eventually be under that rainshield if it kept moving.

I haven't looked at any of the models today (and they'd mostly be from 7pm's data last night anyway). But I'm going to go run those.

Steve

[Steve]

Looks like UKMET 06z has the most ominous short loop for the Crescent City

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Some of the other models split the energy (like I was thinking yesterday) heading an upper piece off with the front, and keeping the low level moisture south of the upper high behind the front that gets squeezed back south and loops back to Texas (Brownsville, Corpus and dissipated). So who knows? Humberto is a trip.

Steve

[duris]

Looks like UKMET 06z has the most ominous short loop for the Crescent City

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Some of the other models split the energy (like I was thinking yesterday) heading an upper piece off with the front, and keeping the low level moisture south of the upper high behind the front that gets squeezed back south and loops back to Texas (Brownsville, Corpus and dissipated). So who knows? Humberto is a trip.

Steve

Thanks. Worst case, we go fins up, and it's all good. Thankfully, don't see us getting that Abbeville weather but suspect y'all will get a little more down the bayou than the city will.

[duris]

And that UKMet loop made me dizzy. It's like one of those cartoons that induces epilepsy.

[LAwxrgal]

This Humberto character is a hum-dinger. Seriously. He snuck up on us and now we (in SELA) look to be getting some weather out of it. Who knows what he'll do next. Guess we'll have to find out what he does when he does it. Sigh.

note: I'm just west of the city, in the River Parishes.

[O Town]

Beaumont Enterprise is reporting a storm-related death. No details yet.

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/site/ ... p?brd=2287

The page was updated.

In northwest Bridge City, a man died when his carport fell on him outside his home, Police Chief Steve Faircloth reported. Elsewhere flooding, power outages and downed trees have officials asking residents to stay at home.

[KWT]

LAwxrgal, looks like this system will keep us on our toes for a little while yet, if it does bend back south and heads back into the gulf no reason why it can't strengthen quickly again given the syntopic set-up will be about the same, all depends on whether it can keep that circulation is has now going, if it can then it could get going to pretty readily again.
Going to be an interesting 36hrs!

[Steve]

This was from the 5am discussion.

12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND

At 7am, the advisory noted that the system was at 30.3N and 93.6W. So the storm is traveling south of the points prior indicated. This also may mean that my call last night for Humberto to track just south of or over Alexandria may be right. 12 hours, it's not going to be at 30.9N and 93.5W, rest assured of that.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner (9:00AM):

Humberto maintains hurricane intensity while moving into W LA.

Hurricane force winds continue across inland SW LA near the northern eyewall of Humberto.

Storm surge flooding along the coast at Sabine Pass and in SW LA should begin to subside this afternoon as onshore winds weaken. Tide levels are currently running about 4-5 feet above normal which has flooded coastal portions of Jefferson County and Cameron Parish. Water levels continue to rise around the Lake Charles as wind funnel the storm surge northward into the smaller rivers and inlets.

Peak wind gust recorded this morning over SE TX were well within the cat 1 range:

Sabine Pass: 86mph
Beaumont Regional Airport: 84mph
Orange: 81mph.
The buoy 20 miles E of Galveston gust to 70mph around midnight as the center passed overhead.

Rate of intensification:

It is incredible how fast Humberto intensified yesterday. The surface pressure fell from 1006mb at 1000am yesterday to 984mb at landfall around 200am this morning…that is 22mb in 16 hours. Humberto was intensifying at nearly double the rate of what is considered rapid intensification for a hurricane. The winds increased from 35mph at 1000am to 85mph at 1215am (a TD to cat 1 hurricane in about 14 hours). Recon obs recorded 98kt (113mph) flight level winds just before landfall this morning and a dropsonde recorded surface winds of 64kts (75mph and a pressure of 991mb) in the eastern eyewall just before the center crossed the coast. The rapid intensification was likely due to the small inner core (hurricane force winds only extended outward 15miles from the center). Small systems can spin up very quickly as Felix, Dean, and now Humberto have proven this year. The rapid increase in the wind speed between 700pm and midnight was due to the lag time in the rapid pressure fall and response to the wind field. Wind increases usually lag the pressure fall by a few hours as the pressure field adjusts the rapidly changing pressure differences.

Humberto should be a clear lesson about the uncertainty related to intensity forecast changes and its poor level of predictability.

Track:

Humberto will continue to track toward the NE across central LA today and toward MS tonight and Friday. Global models continue to advertise a rightward (southward) turn of the system over MS this weekend with the potential for Humberto to re-enter the Gulf of Mexico. The trough which helped to pull the hurricane NE just east of the Houston area is not strong enough to capture and carry to system NE into the eastern US and high pressure will build southeastward north of Humberto over the next 24-48 hours blocking a northeast movement. This high may be strong enough to force the system back into the Gulf and then WSW next week. Much depends on what is left of the circulation of Humberto if/when it emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico. With the steering flow forecast to collapse the system could stall and slowly weaken (spin down) over land and never make it back into the Gulf. We will need to keep a close eye on this potential as any track would likely bring Humberto back toward the TX coast.

For 2007:

TX has now experienced two tropical cyclone landfalls:
TS Erin on August 16th
Hurricane Humberto on September 13th

[jasons2k]

BTW, I didn't have a chance to repsond, but I was a little irritated yesterday --

Someone cited "shallow waters off the Texas coast" as a reason why this would not intensify. As if Charley and Claudette were not an example enough - let this be an example that a storm CAN and WILL intensify over nearshore shelf waters if conditions are favorable.

Wouldn't shallower waters have a higher heat content?

No, deeper waters have a higher heat content b/c a factor in TCHP is the depth of warm water. However, I think this is negated by the fact that shallow waters can't upwell deep, cold water.