Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Assuming Karen is declared dead at 5 pm (I'd say about 70% likely), where should the thread be for the ex-Karen wave knowing it has a chance (an outside chance at least) at regenesis? Continue this thread, a new thread here or a new thread at Talkin' Tropics?

[jhamps10]

Assuming Karen is declared dead at 5 pm (I'd say about 70% likely), where should the thread be for the ex-Karen wave knowing it has a chance (an outside chance at least) at regenesis? Continue this thread, a new thread here or a new thread at Talkin' Tropics?

yeah I think NHC is going to pull the plug at 5, but it would not suprise me either to see them keep it as a TD to see what it does if that shear does weaken like you meantion.

[CrazyC83]

Assuming Karen is declared dead at 5 pm (I'd say about 70% likely), where should the thread be for the ex-Karen wave knowing it has a chance (an outside chance at least) at regenesis? Continue this thread, a new thread here or a new thread at Talkin' Tropics?

yeah I think NHC is going to pull the plug at 5, but it would not suprise me either to see them keep it as a TD to see what it does if that shear does weaken like you meantion.

I'd pull the plug now, since I think it is a remnant low (although with 35-40 kt winds) and keep monitoring the wave for regenesis like an Invest. I'd give it a 30% chance of redeveloping in the subtropical Atlantic.

[attallaman]

I must have heard wrong this morning but I thought I heard a MET on Fox News Cable say this morning that although TD Karen didn't look very good today; Karen could come back and strengthen and might pose a threat to the USA; I don't remember which part of the USA he referred to but I do remember him not mentioning anything about a threat to the GOM. Could that MET at Fox News Cable have been referring to TD Karen or the other system further out in the Atlantic?

[HUC]

I don't know if it will regenerate..What i see right now,is a strong TWave with some low pressures approchinng the Leeward islands;and...with this shear aloft,i can imagine strong showers in a day or two over these islands!!!That's correct???

[wxman57]

Shear is weakening around Karen - and she is headed for a hole. While I agree that Karen is now a wave (although I think a TS-strength wave), I wouldn't rule out regenesis...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

That's not a shear map you've posted, it's a shear tendency map. A shear tendency map only shows how shear has changed in the past 24 hours, it doesn't show wind shear. There's a huge difference. The jet core over Karen is on the order of 50 kts. Even if (big if) the shear were to drop by 10 or 20 kts, it's still 20-30 kts or more. But shear maps are notoriously bad. I don't trust them, never have. There just isn't enough upper-air data out there in the tropics much of the time. Instead of looking at shear maps I'd suggest running a 24-hr water vapor loop and observing what's actually happening. You'll see that what's left of Karen is heading right into the jet core (as did Ingrid in the same area).

Karen will survive as a tropical wave for a while. It will have as much chance of regenerating as any other wave moving into an extremely hostile environment. The energy will remain but shear will prevent regeneration of enough convection to generate inflow and redevelop the LLC. It has no memory that it was once a hurricane (will be upgraded in post-storm report). What's left of Karen will probably help generate a low center along that frontal boundary off the east U.S. Coast. May cause some rain in Bermuda. And yes, there's a slim chance that way down the road, some of the energy might spin up into a low around Bermuda or east of there as the ECMWF seems to suggest in the 7-10 day time frame. So we do still need to keep a close eye out on any storms out over the warm waters for another couple of months. I'd watch the Gulf for possible subtropical development in a few days, though.

Be glad Karen's gone.

[xironman]

I have been looking at the water vapor http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html and my guess was that something was trying to pinch off a bit south, with that interrupting the strong west to east flow that has torn this down to a wave. My thought was this would present a more favorable environment for this wave with a exceptionally broad cyclonic area as it moves west, giving it a chance to regenerate. But then again a monkey banging on a key board (or the CMC) is about equal in making a prediction as me.

[cycloneye]

596
WTNT42 KNHC 292030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

THE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
OR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.

AT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO
REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH
IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE
BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES
BACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES.
FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.3N 54.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 292030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

THE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
OR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.

AT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO
REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH
IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE
BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES
BACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES.
FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN.

[storms in NC]

The environment is not favorable for any storm right now or has it been for the whole summer for a US hit. This is a year to remember for the ridges and ULLs and the Big shears. We did have a low cat 1 to go into TX LA this year. So I think over all we have been very lucky this year. it could have been a bad year with all the hot waters we had.

[Gustywind]

I don't know if it will regenerate..What i see right now,is a strong TWave with some low pressures approchinng the Leeward islands;and...with this shear aloft,i can imagine strong showers in a day or two over these islands!!!That's correct???

Hi Huc absolutely it's a possible scenario in the next 24 -72h that we can neglect, i go with you in the fact that very moist air will approach the islands and the lowpresssures approaching Leewards Islands... and allowing for a nice round of showers and scattered thunderstorms churning near our area...but right now there's so much versatility with that strong shear...will it allow for even a strong wave in spite of the fact that shear will calm down...that's the 1000$ question in my humble opinion...and by esxtension that's clearly difficult for my eyes untrained eyes to see much improvement or myeyes are deceiving me... Whereas if if if shear relaxes just a bit to support a strong twave or moderate twave...things can change quicky too in the tropics and
given that solution...it could be highly credible to go with " strong showers "like you nicely mentionned Huc !
Note just for the info that "the record of latitude system "folks ...has not been tied since Ingrid 18N neither system has passed the mytical 18°N this season beginning at 20w or in this area...amazing....and so...even to see a fish (speaking about fish seems very genearous this year hope i'm entirely wrong and assuming that Mother nature always nice surprises in store) with TD status...consequently to see higher status folks... more higher than 18°N is not an utopia thus this season but reality...given the fury of the strong wind shear impacting most the system between 20-60w...
Second info, it's the first time since June 1st that i don't see any
dust or stable air in the Atlantic Ocean 10-20 N between 20w 60 w...but a very very small pocket of stable air can be observed 20N 30w in this vicinity..
north of the CV islands between 20 w 60 w...
correct me f i'm wrong but seeing this map...that's clear mostly clear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[HUC]

The season ends when it's closed;i'll no make any speculations over the coming 2 months,and particulary in the carribean...
The dust normally ends in september;and october to december are splendid months in regards of clear skies,because the Azores HP is no more huge and extending so far east tht is the case between may and august..
Wait for our local forecast in Guadeloupe: showers,and thunder???

[Brent]

Bye Karen! See you in 2013.

[CrazyC83]

Bye Karen! See you in 2013.

That is unless she regenerates...

[RL3AO]

Bye Karen! See you in 2013.

That is unless she regenerates...

Or if the Mayans are right.

[deltadog03]

BYE BYE!!!!!!

[Gustywind]

The season ends when it's closed;i'll no make any speculations over the coming 2 months,and particulary in the carribean...
The dust normally ends in september;and october to december are splendid months in regards of clear skies,because the Azores HP is no more huge and extending so far east tht is the case between may and august..
Wait for our local forecast in Guadeloupe: showers,and thunder???

Very pertinent point of view Huc, and interresting...and opened answer lool in humble opinion we will see others things in October and November but .. where and with which intensity i dont' know... just keeping in my mind that given the versatility of this season all seems possible ...whereas in the islands we can't put aside some wet weather episodes in October ( the rainiest month in our local region) or even November... one thing for sure don't let your guard down in this "mid end season" :)

[CrazyC83]

How do we handle the ex-Karen wave: continue this thread, start a new thread here or a new threat at "Talkin' Tropics"?

[chadtm80]

Just keep discussing here please

[bwhorton2007]

RIP Karen Now looking for this phantom gulf system that is expected.