Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

First visilbe images show a complety exposed LLC near 17N 54.5W. It appears to be moving west.

That looks like a small eddy. Look near 15.8N/53.7W for a larger remnant swirl. Squalls are now 250 miles to the east and shear is still increasing (run a WV loop and look at the massive upper low it's moving into now. Goodbye Karen.

I see the ULL, dropping southward now. I agree it doesn't look good at all for Karen right now. She may downgraded to remmant low later today. I also think the swirl to the south circling around a larger mean center, around where the NHC postioned it this morning and appears to be moving westward.

[HURAKAN]

"CLEAR"

[wxman57]

Definitely a small, remnant vortex near 16.8N/54.7W, but squalls are about 250 miles to the east. The swirl I saw farther southeast about 30 minutes ago is dissipating. Karen is certainly not a TS, and it would never qualify for upgrading to a TD in its present state.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z McIDAS shot showing 2 remnant swirls far-removed from any convection. Shear continues to increase, Bones is warning up his voice...

Now the big question is - can the NHC bring itself to admit Karen is no longer a TS, or even a TD and just say it's dissipated? I suspect they'll call it a TD, word the discussion saying they can't find a clear center and that it may be dissipating, and watch it all day first. I have no problem with that, I guess.

[cycloneye]

29/1145 UTC 16.8N 54.8W T1.5/2.0 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean


Downgraded at 11 AM.

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

362
WHXX01 KWBC 291240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070929 1200 070930 0000 070930 1200 071001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 53.5W 17.4N 55.8W 18.5N 57.8W 19.6N 59.3W
BAMD 16.5N 53.5W 18.1N 53.4W 19.7N 53.4W 21.2N 54.0W
BAMM 16.5N 53.5W 17.4N 54.9W 18.2N 56.2W 19.2N 57.4W
LBAR 16.5N 53.5W 17.7N 54.6W 18.6N 55.4W 20.2N 56.2W
SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 26KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071001 1200 071002 1200 071003 1200 071004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 60.7W 22.5N 63.3W 24.8N 65.1W 26.4N 65.4W
BAMD 22.5N 55.1W 24.4N 57.7W 25.3N 60.3W 25.9N 61.2W
BAMM 20.1N 58.6W 21.7N 60.9W 22.8N 63.1W 23.2N 64.7W
LBAR 21.6N 57.4W 23.9N 58.2W 25.7N 59.1W 26.3N 59.9W
SHIP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 52KTS
DSHP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 51.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


More confirmation of the downgrade to TD at 11 AM.

[Sanibel]

Surface feature broken down by shear.

2007 is a good textbook year on shear's effect on storms.

[fci]

So, I asked for Bones one day too early wxman!
"Star Trekkin across the Universe."
"There's Klingons on the starboard bow".........
"Its dead Jim."
"Say good night Gracie"
(all out of Bye-bye phrases)

[cycloneye]

749
WTNT32 KNHC 291439
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2007

...KAREN NOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES...850 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN HAS WEAKENED AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. KAREN COULD DEGENERATE INTO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...53.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

253
WTNT22 KNHC 291438
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.5N 57.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


291440
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

STRONGER THAN AVERAGE SHEAR NEAR KAREN IS WINNING THE BATTLE.
KAREN IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS THE CENTER IS LOSING
DEFINITION AND THE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
AREA OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. IT LOOKS LIKE KAREN IS
BECOMING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. I WAS TEMPTED TO MAKE THIS THE
LAST ADVISORY BUT INSTEAD...AND A BETTER OPTION...IS TO DOWNGRADE
KAREN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST IT TO BE A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR IF A
NEW CENTER REFORMS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT
THAT GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE BY 3 TO 4 DAYS. THESE MODELS
ASSUME THAT KAREN WILL SURVIVE THE BAND OF STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY...I HIGHLY
VALUE THE NUMERICAL MODELS...SO KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION...OR THE BROAD REMNANT CIRCULATION..IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION. THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS TRACK
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WHICH IN FACT HAS NOT CHANGED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.8N 53.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.0N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

After Bones got burned by Humberto, he's a bit more careful before making his announcements.

However...

[jrod]

This has been dead since yesterday, I am amazed the NHC hasnt issued the final advisory yet.

[jaxfladude]

Well, looks good for the CONUS for now, hope that luck holds for the next two months.....

[OuterBanker]

RIP Karen. But know that no one has survived the CONUS shield of death yet. You should have planned a trip to Mexico.

[artist]

has anyone read stormW's thoughts on Karen in the tropical analysis forum? That is my fear if she does follow the cmc. Let's hope not.
Here is the link to his well presented thoughts -

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=98349

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts on ex-Karen:
viewtopic.php?p=1646953#p1646953

[HUC]

Does somebody see a swirl detached from Karen and now near 16,3N 56 W and mving west??? It's the sign of desintegration???

[CrazyC83]

Shear is weakening around Karen - and she is headed for a hole. While I agree that Karen is now a wave (although I think a TS-strength wave), I wouldn't rule out regenesis...

[xironman]

I agree on the weakening. Seems to me that if the remnant spin lasts it may get better for it. It appears to be moving much closer to west in the high res visible and the shear may start to abate. Compare the change over the next day.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007092912&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=000hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007092912&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=024hr

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 17:02:44 N Lon : 54:07:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1008.0mb/ 34.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Center Temp : +20.6C Cloud Region Temp : -9.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.55^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************