EX INVEST 94L Thread

[jinftl]

What factors are making this area favorable or unfavorable for development (i.e., shear, dry air, proximity to land)?

[cpdaman]

anyone get jb's video's?

what does he say about this things chances, i think many would be very intrested

1004 pressure well, so now we just need a LLC to form and then = equation solved?

[Blown Away]

93L & 91L are gone from the Weather Underground site but still have floater's on the NHC site. 94L is still listed on the Weather Underground site but gone from the NHC site. All (3) and ex Melissa are still on the NRL. Am I missing something or is just somebody not updating their site.

[eaglegirl]

anyone get jb's video's?

what does he say about this things chances, i think many would be very intrested

1004 pressure well, so now we just need a LLC to form and then = equation solved?

I just went over to look for you after reading your post. It doesn't appear that he has a video. His blog says that he is out of town without a computer cord. He made a brief blog entry last night at 10pm.

He said that the tropics very active and development is LIKELY (his caps) southern gulf of Western Caribbean next week. He also said that the GFS has strongest upward motion pattern of hurricane season Oct 10th -25th over atlantic basin. And, concluded by say that names or not, Florida in for nasty weather later this week and nest. euro stalls storm nearby for 4 days.

[cycloneye]

Seven consecutive days with recon being canceled for a system?

You are refering to 92L that had those cancelations.But this is a different entity and is the first cancelation for this one.

[jinftl]

11:30 AM TWO:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON MONDAY.

I don't read the cancelling of today's recon as a sign of lost interest in 94L...conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development, and it is forecast to remain nearly stationary...so basically we have a system that is not developed and not moving...there will be plenty of time to monitor this without wasting the expense and manpower on a flight today.

[Recurve]

What factors are making this area favorable or unfavorable for development (i.e., shear, dry air, proximity to land)?

It's not unfavorable -- conditions are favorable in terms of water temps, shear, moist environment. But as Derek says, there's no surface low, no real convergence which is necessary before anything gets going, as I understand it.

[Blown Away]

Where is the 18Z GFS?

[fci]

Like I said in the other thread, when the CMC shows a storm headed to Fl I breath a sigh of relief but it has said so repeatedly this season and we have not even been in the cone!

i have been hit by so many "model" hurricanes im punch drunk

Yeah the CMC LOVES us here in So. Fla.
If we had gotten hit by all the storms the CMC had for us this season; you and I would be the last ones leaving and turning off the lights!

(At least it would have put the Dolphins out of their misery)

[Derek Ortt]

yes, recurve

the atmosphere is unfavorable for development as there is not anything to develop

[Thunder44]

11:30 AM TWO:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON MONDAY.

I don't read the cancelling of today's recon as a sign of lost interest in 94L...conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development, and it is forecast to remain nearly stationary...so basically we have a system that is not developed and not moving...there will be plenty of time to monitor this without wasting the expense and manpower on a flight today.

I think the NHC cancelled the flight, because they just didn't believe they would find a TC today. The main prohibiting factor this system probably has over the next few days is land interaction.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Like I said in the other thread, when the CMC shows a storm headed to Fl I breath a sigh of relief but it has said so repeatedly this season and we have not even been in the cone!

i have been hit by so many "model" hurricanes im punch drunk

Yeah the CMC LOVES us here in So. Fla.
If we had gotten hit by all the storms the CMC had for us this season; you and I would be the last ones leaving and turning off the lights!

(At least it would have put the Dolphins out of their misery)

You wouldn't have to turn off the lights. There wouldn't be any power.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC only said upper winds are expected to be more favorable. Atmospheric conditions go well beyond upper winds

[Blown Away]

Clip on 94L from Jeff Master's Blog:
Thunderstorm activity has increased over the Western Caribbean a few hundred miles north of the northeast coast of Honduras. This area has been labeled "Invest 94L" by NHC. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sharp wind shift in the region, but not a closed circulation. Satellite loops show a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, but the cloud pattern has no organization yet. Surface pressures over the entire Western Caribbean, from Cancun to Cuba, to the Cayman Islands, and south and west to Honduras and Belize have shown a large drop over the past two days. It is uncommon for pressures to fall over this large of an area during hurricane season. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below through Tuesday. The low surface pressures, light wind shear, and warm ocean waters should allow a tropical depression to form by Tuesday at the latest. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and any storm that does form may remain for a week over the high-heat content waters of the region. In that case, we can expect a hurricane a week from now. However, some of the models indicate a slow motion northwestward later this week, bringing the system over Belize or Mexico's Yucatan, before it would have a chance to intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL model predicts 94L will hit near Cozumel later this week as a tropical storm, then be forced south-westward deep into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. later this week that may be strong enough to pull 94L northwards. Western Cuba, the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas would be at risk in this scenario. The HWRF model is the only model showing this scenario.In the shorter term, residents of northern Honduras can expect heavy rains beginning Monday. These heavy rains will likely spread to Belize on Tuesday and Mexico's Yucatan coast by Wednesday.
Figure 1. Pressure trace at the buoy in the Western Caribbean at 20N 85W, 120 miles east of Cozumel. A steady pressure fall the past 2-3 days is apparent. Superimposed on this falling trend is an oscillation due to the pressure wave that affects all tropical stations when the rising sun makes the air expand at sunrise. Image credit: National Data Buoy Center....

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

Here is the link to Jeff Masters Blog

Jeff Masters Blog

[Derek Ortt]

latest Canadian does nothing with this

I am only giving this about a 10-15 percent chance of doing anything. Enjoy the race at Talledega

[cycloneye]

I tought that the Canadian was not useful in the tropics.I think it was discused in the past days that the Canadian model was not good for the tropics.

[Nimbus]

Starting to see a little more convergence up around 17N but it doesn't look all that much better than it did at sunrise. With the persistant convection we should see a clear rotation and more organized inflow characteristics. At this point it is hard to tell whether there is any LLC at the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

if the Canadian is not developing a TC, then it is likely not going to develop. It forms almost any surface vortex into a hurricane with the downgrades they made to their model. Thus, if they cannot form anything, it probably not going to form

The fact that no other model forms a TC should also be quite telling. This is a broad system; thus, the models can resolve it

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.0 82.4 120./ 1.9
6 17.8 82.5 355./ 7.2
12 17.9 83.2 283./ 6.6
18 18.7 83.8 322./10.1
24 19.0 84.2 312./ 4.5
30 19.5 84.2 355./ 4.2
36 20.0 84.7 321./ 7.4
42 20.7 85.0 337./ 7.4
48 21.3 86.1 295./11.7
54 21.4 87.0 276./ 8.5
60 21.1 87.7 249./ 7.1
66 20.9 88.3 251./ 5.6
72 20.6 88.8 243./ 5.4
78 20.3 89.2 231./ 5.5
84 19.9 89.6 223./ 4.5
90 19.5 90.1 229./ 6.3
96 19.2 90.4 229./ 4.7
102 18.8 90.6 207./ 4.8
108 18.2 90.6 172./ 5.9
114 17.9 90.2 129./ 4.1
120 17.8 90.1 135./ 1.5
126 17.6 90.2 202./ 2.1

12z GFDL is still with 94L.Track takes it up towards the NE corner of Yucatan,then goes down in latitud inside Yucatan. Lets see if intensitywise it still has a hurricane as the past two runs had.

12z GFDL Animation

The 12z GFDL does not have a hurricane.A 40kt storm.