INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Gustywind]

Absolutely yeahhh is there's something trying to form near barbados or higher?

Note that shear has lessen at 10 kts or below...interresting
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[wxman57]

Nowhere near a TD today. If it can build some solid convection today then it could become a TD in 24-36 hours. It's looking less healthy than it did yesterday at this time. Development chances have gone down a little since yesterday.

[destruction92]

Its coming into the Caribbean a little further south than the models were showing. Good news for PR, Bad news for Gulf coast.

And what makes you "assume" that 97L is going to be a GOM storm?

Now do you see why I was mildly annoyed when some S2K posters from TX automatically assume that any disturbance moving through the Caribbean automatically means a U.S. Gulf Coast hit!

Now if you would have some evidence behind your statement then I would be much less annoyed.

It's too early to speculate U.S. landfall regions, especially when 97L has not even made it past the Windward Islands yet!

[Gustywind]

No dry air in vicinity:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html


Shear on a decreasing trend
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If convection can refire and given the lastest improving conditions chances to see a TD are much higher

[boca]

97L looks like it has that popcorn type of convection around its center just east of Barbados.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Frank2]

I agree with wxman57 - the wave is less impressive than yesterday...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Convection continues to increase.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Its coming into the Caribbean a little further south than the models were showing. Good news for PR, Bad news for Gulf coast.

And what makes you "assume" that 97L is going to be a GOM storm?

Now do you see why I was mildly annoyed when some S2K posters from TX automatically assume that any disturbance moving through the Caribbean automatically means a U.S. Gulf Coast hit!

Now if you would have some evidence behind your statement then I would be much less annoyed.

It's too early to speculate U.S. landfall regions, especially when 97L has not even made it past the Windward Islands yet!

Absolutely nice analysis tkanks a lot.... i don't to say that but we're often first concerned in the islands....and we don't know really what will happen near ours islands too....so that seems a little utopic sometimes to read it but.....that the OPINION of each other folks

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

97L looks like it has that popcorn type of convection around its center just east of Barbados.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Agree with you Boca, popping trend down the road east of barbados or just east north east...or my eyes are deceiving me!

[gatorcane]

Boca IF this thing can get its act together it may have the highest chances of putting South Florida in the cone that any invest has all season...so I agree it has me a little concerned

But that is if it can get going.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[gatorcane]

Looking much better with each passing hour after the convection died off some last night.

[Blown Away]

Wow, looks much better over the past few hours.

[boca]

Gatorcane and Blown_away, look at this route the GFDL has.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Boca very scary indeed, it passes just south of Puerto Rico (as a strong TS) moves over Hispaniola temporarily weakening (Karen?) and develops the Karen? into a hurricane in the SE Bahamas as a ridge is building in over the Eastern CONUS.

The GFDL has been very consistent with this track for several runs now so you must start paying attention to it

That setup spells trouble for SE Florida and the FL Keys but hopefully this invest poofs

One thing to note the GFDL does have the initial NW movement correct as our invest is moving NW at this time.

[Gustywind]

24/1145 UTC 12.4N 58.4W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

Latest from SSD positions...

[Blown Away]

Gatorcane and Blown_away, look at this route the GFDL has.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Anything that is near or just N of Hispanola is definitely something to pay attention to. On that track if it were to turn N it would be at least a close brush for SFL. Is the high building over 97L at the end of the run, don't see how it would escape N?

[gatorcane]

this invest could easily just move through the Caribbean as a wave -- IF it becomes a depression I think you will see more people looking at this invest.

At this point, I think we are all hoping for it to not go past invest status, which seems to be the pattern for anything in the Atlantic that wants to move north of 15N and West of 60W this year.