Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Man I hate systems that get going in Bahamas and move W across Florida. It reminds me a little too much of what happened in 2005...let's hope that if this becomes Jerry it's well behaved and/or sheared.

One scarier thing was mentioned in the ex-Ingrid thread...this could open up a path for that system (the remnants of Ingrid) to do a lot more destruction as it will have more time to build up again and the path will be opened up...it happened in 2005! Especially if this one is fairly weak and doesn't upwell much...

[fci]

Steve:
As much as I have enjoyed the conversation between you AFM and the others and the debate over who said what and when (yes, I was reading it before and after midnight); y'all should take it to PM.

I'd much rather see what you, AFM and the others think GOING FORWARD then a debate over posts from last night.

[mattpetre]

Anyone check the radar loop lately..uh..it's moving east. Not good since it will likely stay over water longer and may eventually drift north along the east coast ala GFDL and CMC.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Holy smokes... that radar makes it look like it has an eye already... what's up with that? No way it's an eye, but sure does look like one on radar.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anyone check the radar loop lately..uh..it's moving east. Not good since it will likely stay over water longer and may eventually drift north along the east coast ala GFDL and CMC.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

I see that too:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
NOT good!!! It is moving east and will have more time over water and be further
away from the ULL that means more time for intensification with water temps
mid 80s by the gulf stream

[Evil Jeremy]

You are all assuming that this develops. what are the actual chances now of that even happening?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think its just trying to find a good spot for consolodation people..Not moving east..

[CrazyC83]

You are all assuming that this develops. what are the actual chances now of that even happening?

I'd say about 70% chance it will develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

>>This has taken a serious turn for the worse today. This is a potential nightmare setting up for New Orleans and nobody knows about it. We could literally be within 4 days of a hurricane smashing into LA again. Loop current with a whole 1kt of shear?

Well I doubt if something hits on Friday or Saturday it would be all that strong. UKMET does have it intensifying at landfall though. If it comes up and hooks out, the teleconnection would be more with NARI (including intensity). But stronger ridging is coming to the SE US. IMHO, the Gulf is open for business after 93L (likely-jerry-to-be) clears out be it WNW or eventual recurve.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think if Louisiana gets hit, it can be a major. I'd say high-end Cat1 would be about the upper limit even if it got that strong. That's not to say that if my idea of a farther west system is right, then it could possibly be stronger with those extra couple of days over the Gulf.

Steve

Steve wistful thinking to say the least.

Water temps in the GOM are in the upper 80s right off the WEst Coast of Florida and those waters have been untapped since June

But we all know that water temp are only a piece of the puzzle when it comes to
TS development. The upper level winds play a huge part in it and they don't favor
a major hurricane right now.

StormCenter, BUT we all know(and the mets can tell you this as well) that we can't predict where the shear will be
and how much, and also, those conditions you mention can easily change. I'm sure I can find plenty of examples from storms
in the past where there suppose to have been shear but there wasn't and more moisture became available....I think we have
all learned our lesson with Humberto to not act as if these storms can't get their act together suddenly...While you
may be right regarding the strength, you may also be wrong.

[Evil Jeremy]

You are all assuming that this develops. what are the actual chances now of that even happening?

I'd say about 70% chance it will develop.

Before or after it crosses through Florida?

[Portastorm]

Gators are ready for LSU --- Go Gators!

I didn't say it would bomb but if it remained over water for about 3 days or a little more -- it could quickly get its act together with SSTs in the Gulf stream running in the mid 80s

Yes...go gators. I despise LSU (being an Aggie...I actually like UT better than LSU).

Now...back to the tropics....this won't stay off the coast. It's going to move...

(had to comment on the tropics to justify the post about LSU )

Off-topic: Oh my goodness AFM, that is saying a lot coming from an Aggie. Would be like me saying I like A&M better than OU

On-topic: AFM, this is playing out like you said last night. Props to you.

[Evil Jeremy]

Also, it appears to be moving more ESE or SE than just East. Also, the Miami Radar is going down.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 18:15 UTC

[Air Force Met]

Thanks. But I already credited you for that in my comments . I didn't so much see the baroclinic forcing, you guys did. I knew there would be some resolution with all the ingredients coming in, but I figured the transition would be more tropical at first due to the wave's interaction rather than a phase (btw, what's the appropriate term for a reverse-phase when something goes tropical from nontropical?).

Steve

What I was looking at was the upper level pattern and the fact the models were putting down a low. The only thing that made sense to me was baroclinic forcing. If you look at the low now...it is being formed under a huge area of divergence aloft...not only directional but speed divergence. The divergence in direction is almost 90 degrees and the speed divergence is also kicking. It had no choice but to develop something at the sfc. But...it will remain sheared for a few days because as you can see in the WV loop...it is an impressive upper low. As I mentioned last night...it reminds me of something you see in the western Gulf....nice sfc low with everything on the north and east side. The only question remaining is what becomes of the upper pattern latter in the week over the gulf.

[Steve]

>>The upper level winds play a huge part in it and they don't favor
a major hurricane right now.

I think lack of time from what we are starting with is also a factor.

>>I'd much rather see what you, AFM and the others think GOING FORWARD then a debate over posts from last night.

Before or after Florida.

Steve

[mattpetre]

I think its just trying to find a good spot for consolodation people..Not moving east..

But if you look at the relative velocities it does look like this is the center of the circulation and it really does resemble a weak eye already. Pros, is there anything to this?

[CrazyC83]

You are all assuming that this develops. what are the actual chances now of that even happening?

I'd say about 70% chance it will develop.

Before or after it crosses through Florida?

At some point, although I'd say 50% chance before Florida of at least a tropical depression, 20% of wave across Florida and development afterward, 30% of no development.

[Steve]

>>What I was looking at was the upper level pattern and the fact the models were putting down a low. The only thing that made sense to me was baroclinic forcing. If you look at the low now...it is being formed under a huge area of divergence aloft...not only directional but speed divergence. The divergence in direction is almost 90 degrees and the speed divergence is also kicking. It had no choice but to develop something at the sfc. But...it will remain sheared for a few days because as you can see in the WV loop...it is an impressive upper low. As I mentioned last night...it reminds me of something you see in the western Gulf....nice sfc low with everything on the north and east side. The only question remaining is what becomes of the upper pattern latter in the week over the gulf.

Understood. And I agree with the look of something in the western gulf (I would only add in the early and later part of the seasons, say June/July or October where systems are often pressing up against troughs or fronts).

Steve

[PhillyWX]

But if you look at the relative velocities it does look like this is the center of the circulation and it really does resemble a weak eye already. Pros, is there anything to this?

No...that's the center of the vorticity...and that's nowhere near a weak eye forming.

[Air Force Met]

>>What I was looking at was the upper level pattern and the fact the models were putting down a low. The only thing that made sense to me was baroclinic forcing. If you look at the low now...it is being formed under a huge area of divergence aloft...not only directional but speed divergence. The divergence in direction is almost 90 degrees and the speed divergence is also kicking. It had no choice but to develop something at the sfc. But...it will remain sheared for a few days because as you can see in the WV loop...it is an impressive upper low. As I mentioned last night...it reminds me of something you see in the western Gulf....nice sfc low with everything on the north and east side. The only question remaining is what becomes of the upper pattern latter in the week over the gulf.

Understood. And I agree with the look of something in the western gulf (I would only add in the early and later part of the seasons, say June/July or October where systems are often pressing up against troughs or fronts).

Steve

Right...and I will reiterate what I said last night. The real key to all of this is actually the longwave out west digging down into CA. How that digs down will determine how the rest of this plays out...and whether south/central TX gets a major or AL/MS get a strong TS/cat 1.

[Air Force Met]

But if you look at the relative velocities it does look like this is the center of the circulation and it really does resemble a weak eye already. Pros, is there anything to this?

No...that's the center of the vorticity...and that's nowhere near a weak eye forming.

Yep...you've got a while before you see an eye on this thing.