Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[boca]

Ingrid been drifting since its birth.Not going anywhere so the interest isn't there.

[gatorcane]

Ingrid been drifting since its birth.Not going anywhere so the interest isn't there.

It's made is pretty far WNW since its birth Boca and it should continue to move WNW.

It very well may be a player for South Florida down the road so I have a vested interest in it.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Gator, I too will make a forecast...the It's dead Jim/Cat 5 into NOLA pendulum will soon swing.....neener neener neener:roll:

On a technical note, this system was still being watched (ex: NRL) so it was never "dead" because it still had a low level circ even if it almost opened up. Still a lot of varables on if this could strenghten beyond a strong depression. If it does, it's in a bad spot

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting the NHC moved it back so quickly.

Would not be surprised to see a slightly different tone in the next discussion -- although since the NHC is conservative maybe expect something like "although conditions are not favorable now, conditions may gradually become somewhat more favorable over the next couple of days as it moves WNW."

I am very shocked there is not more interest in this system ATM. I forsee it will really draw this board's attention gradually over the next couple of days and will be the next one this board is closely monitoring.

It doesn't deserve attention. If conditions were becoming more favorable, everyone would be posting in this thread. You've been a member longer than I, so you should know the drill. There is a good chance that shear is underestimated by those charts. You should really listen to the professional meteorologists - Air Force Met discussed the issue yesterday. Additionally, a trough is progged to deepen in the W Atlantic in response to the building upper ridge over 93L/GOM upper low. If ex-Ingrid forms a new LLC north of 20N, it will probably avoid FL or the United States. I give it a <20 percent chance of development. A system doesn't magically become a threat because of "climatology" or a "prime position" to threaten the United States.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

It's woefully sheared in these loops, in my opinion.

[JabNOLA]

I guess the question has been answered now. If there is a full comeback the system will remain Ingrid. The NHC has the floater labeled as such. I am interested even though the main concern is on the closer in virtual storm.

My calendar says September and a ridge is setting up.

[gatorcane]

MiamiensisWx no offense but what are you talking about? There is no trough that is going to dig in behind 93L. Personally I don't think 93L is going to develop much and it should push off to the WNW through central/north florida over the Southern CONUS. For somebody who lives in Boca Raton in SE Florida, I would certainly keep an eye on Ex-Ingrid.

Take a look at two models. Lots of ridging off the EC of the US. CMC puts this system, albeit weak in the SE Bahamas in 5 days.

I'm sure somebody can pull of pictures of past storms in that area that didn't look good and developed down the road. One such storm is Jeanne. If anybody has the picture it looked alot like this one does near the same location.

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[MiamiensisWx]

Jeanne was situated under a drastically different synoptic setup. It's not a valid comparison, in my opinion. Jeanne had support from the environment, pro mets, and other posters. I highly doubt any professional meteorologists think ex-Ingrid has more chances than 93L or the GOM upper low. The "Florida threat" is laughable. You still haven't refuted my position that the shear charts are currently underestimating present upper-level shear over ex-Ingrid. Additionally, the GFS ensembles and Euro are consistent on a W Atlantic trough and weakness. Note the 500 mbar weakness along the Bahamas and Southeast coast.

GFS ensembles near ~72 hours:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f72.html

Euro 850 mbar heights near ~72 hours:

ECMWF

Let's agree to respectfully disagree here. I'm leaning toward a Carolinas threat or fish (if ex-Ingrid reforms). Currently, I don't see any redevelopment.

[gatorcane]

Have you looked at those links recently? The Euro shows ridging across the entire Western Atlantic.

The GFS ensemble shows no trough.

What am I missing?

Just because promets have jumped on this yet doesn't mean they will gradually start to show some interest.

In addition the NHC has put the floater back on Ingrid and their discussion says conditions are not favorable but they no longer say for how long.

[boca]

Lets just say if Ingrid develops it will be a storm for the fish, besides it won't come to Florida because 93L is causing southerly winds east of it.Most likely movement NNW. If this comes to Florida gatorcane I'll let you serve me the crow.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Both the UKmet and the GFS show ridging off the SE coast after 72 hours when 93L moves off to the west. As slow as ex-ingrid is moving why would the 72 hour forecasts weakness have any affect on her movement? To me it's the shear that is the key and it seems like it relaxes after Puerto Rico.

[mattpetre]

I'm going on the record in support of GatorCane's claims that this will make even more of a comeback and will be a FL threat before it's all said and done. Ingrid is much healthier now than she has been in days (3 or 4 at least) and I believe she will get the "ex" removed from her name before the weekend. The shear appears to be lessening significantly from satellite obs this morning.

[CrazyC83]

Looks the best it has been in days! I wouldn't count out a comeback at all as conditions are supposed to improve more...

[gatorcane]

I'm going on the record in support of GatorCane's claims that this will make even more of a comeback and will be a FL threat before it's all said and done. Ingrid is much healthier now than she has been in days (3 or 4 at least) and I believe she will get the "ex" removed from her name before the weekend. The shear appears to be lessening significantly from satellite obs this morning.

Note I am not saying Florida threat -- but Florida should keep an eye on it. What I am calling for is no fish here and regeneration

[LarryWx]

It remains my opinion based on model progs/pattern that IF Ingrid were to comeback to tropical cyclone status, it will not threaten the Gulf or FL, its most likely target would be NC or NE, and it could easily recurve east of the mainland U.S.

[mattpetre]

I'm going on the record in support of GatorCane's claims that this will make even more of a comeback and will be a FL threat before it's all said and done. Ingrid is much healthier now than she has been in days (3 or 4 at least) and I believe she will get the "ex" removed from her name before the weekend. The shear appears to be lessening significantly from satellite obs this morning.

Note I am not saying Florida threat -- but Florida should keep an eye on it. What I am calling for is no fish here and regeneration

Duely noted and I do think it will be a threat in FL even if it does not end up effecting FL. Just like 93L is currently a threat to all of the upper GOM... semantics.

I will agree on regeneration and I personally think it will be S. of FL/GA line somewhere (even possibly towards Cuba.)

[storms in NC]

Jeanne was situated under a drastically different synoptic setup. It's not a valid comparison, in my opinion. Jeanne had support from the environment, pro mets, and other posters. I highly doubt any professional meteorologists think ex-Ingrid has more chances than 93L or the GOM upper low. The "Florida threat" is laughable. You still haven't refuted my position that the shear charts are currently underestimating present upper-level shear over ex-Ingrid. Additionally, the GFS ensembles and Euro are consistent on a W Atlantic trough and weakness. Note the 500 mbar weakness along the Bahamas and Southeast coast.

GFS ensembles near ~72 hours:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f72.html

Euro 850 mbar heights near ~72 hours:

ECMWF

Let's agree to respectfully disagree here. I'm leaning toward a Carolinas threat or fish (if ex-Ingrid reforms). Currently, I don't see any redevelopment.

There is No way this would be a Carolina threat. The ridge is setting in and is not going any where. So if it does refire back up Fla and the Gulf is the one that needs to watch this one too as with 93L


This is out of Morehead City NWC

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL FRONT DISSIPATES FRI NIGHT AND SAT BUT MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIMITED FORCING. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT WITH SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN THROUGH TUE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME AMPLIFIED SUN AND
MON WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S AND
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

[MiamiensisWx]

It remains my opinion based on model progs/pattern that IF Ingrid were to comeback to tropical cyclone status, it will not threaten the Gulf or FL, its most likely target would be NC or NE, and it could easily recurve east of the mainland U.S.

Thank you. Gator and mattpetre, Larry is a reliable person. His analyses on patterns, ENSO, and other factors are "must reads" for everyone. I'm so tired of posting my analyses and they get discarded when data doesn't support development or a United States landfall. Additionally, we don't even know if ex-Ingrid may redevelop. Shear is clearly underestimated by the CIMSS shear charts, too. I do admit that I love the diversity of opinions here.

[gatorcane]

Points taken but we are about 7 days from Ingrid getting close to the U.S so its is far out. There is great uncertainty here it appears but I agree the diversity in opinion is enlightening.

[gatorcane]

NHC still showing little interest:

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[eaglegirl]

In my opinion, it bears watching... there is just too much uncertainty out there.

I don't trust any of the models yet. While they models have predicted development... as far as I have seen... no one has been certain where the "fire" is going to begin. Because of this, I don't think that Ingrid can be written off.

Gatorcane, unless I have missed one of your posts, you've never given up on Ingrid.