Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Stratosphere747]

Still hard to tell using IR and LR radar - But I believe the next TWO will have a bit more aggressive wording with it. Not sure if they will mention that a depression could be forming, though with the proximity to land it wouldn't be surprising.

Not much movement at all either.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is NO depression forming at this moment. This system is a lot like 92L with a MLC and convection forming on top of it, but the difference is it has a sharp surface trough. Only about 50-80 miles offshore Texas, but a surface trough none the less. Could it close off near the northern side? I say if enough convection forms and forms convergents in turn allowing a LLC to form. Sure, I give this a 20 percent chance of becoming something.

[southerngale]

From a tiny dot of convection to this in just 4 hours:



It was obvious on radar that it was going to look better after the eclipse, but it looks better than I expected. It shouldn't be anything more than another heavy rainmaker for Texas, but interesting nonetheless.

[Stormcenter]

There is NO depression forming at this moment. This system is a lot like 92L with a MLC and convection forming on top of it, but the difference is it has a sharp surface trough. Only about 50-80 miles offshore Texas, but a surface trough none the less. Could it close off near the northern side? I say if enough convection forms and forms convergents in turn allowing a LLC to form. Sure, I give this a 20 percent chance of becoming something.

I'm sorry but I disagree with your odds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is NO depression forming at this moment. This system is a lot like 92L with a MLC and convection forming on top of it, but the difference is it has a sharp surface trough. Only about 50-80 miles offshore Texas, but a surface trough none the less. Could it close off near the northern side? I say if enough convection forms and forms convergents in turn allowing a LLC to form. Sure, I give this a 20 percent chance of becoming something.

I'm sorry but I disagree with your odds.

The buoys show a eastly winds from brownsville Texas lat north Along the coastline. To the east around 95 west there is some southeast winds...But that shows there is still a surface trough with in the area. The MLC is what is forming the convection, we have to watch closely for a LLC to form down to the surface. Also I'm putting the fact that they(nhc) has not upgraded 91L, a system that looks about 500 times more organized to anything yet into my odds.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:



Matt, it may not have a LLC, but what an improvement compared to previous days!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well one thing that stands out is that fact that most of the models are now running on this system. Last night there were only 3 running.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_90.gif

(sorry, i didn't have time to upload the image on photobucket)

[Cryomaniac]

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and as such is not backed by any information, metreological or otherwise, it should not be used for any purpose

I think this is pretty similar to Erin, possibly with a similar outcome.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Meso]

8am TWD

THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. AS OF 09Z...THE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N95W 1008
MB...WHICH IS 2 MB LOWER THAN OBSERVED 3 HOURS EARLIER AT 06Z.
IN ACCORDANCE...SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
WITH THE HIGHEST REPORT NEAR 29 KT E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER
...THIS REPORT SEEMS SUSPECT AND UNREPRESENTATIVE WHEN COMPARED
TO THE SURROUNDING 10-20 KT REPORTS. THESE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
REVEAL THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AN ELONGATED N-S TROUGH
AXIS...THOUGH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW
AN IMPROVED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN
ELEMENTS. PROBABLY THE CLEAREST INDICATION OF THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE IS THE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS STARTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SE TEXAS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Thunder44]

Pressures have fallen overnight at buoy 42016, down to near 1008mb:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Winds have also turned to NNW over the past hour there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

It's looking more organized the recent days on satellite imagery and there is definitely an area low pressure spinning there, but maybe not closed entirely. Winds don't seem to be very strong either. But I do think it could develop, since it's not moving much.

[HURAKAN]

It's September and it's moving slowly. Conditions are improving and the system itself is improving in organization. I think we could squeeze out a name with this system. The next 24 hrs should be decisive!

[O Town]

What is this, like the 3rd invest that has started to develop right before entering Texas? Seems like they keep waiting till they are almost on shore and then start looking impressive.
It really looks like it started getting organized over night.

[HURAKAN]

Station FGBL1 - High Island 334
28.12 N 93.67 W (28°7'6" N 93°40'12" W)

09 12 5:46 am S 22.0 25.1 - - - - - - 81.9 - - - - -
09 12 5:31 am SSE 25.1 28.0 - - - - - - 81.5 - - - - -
09 12 5:16 am S 22.9 25.1 - - - - - - 82.4 - - - - -
09 12 5:01 am S 24.1 26.0 - - - - - - 82.2 - - - - -
09 12 4:46 am SSE 27.0 28.0 - - - - - - 82.4 - - - - -
09 12 4:31 am S 26.0 28.9 - - - - - - 82.4 - - - - -
09 12 4:16 am SSE 24.1 28.9 - - - - - - 82.4 - - - - -
09 12 4:01 am S 22.9 25.1 - - - - - - 82.9 - - - - -
09 12 3:46 am S 25.1 28.0 - - - - - - 83.3 - - - - -
09 12 3:31 am SSE 26.0 28.9 - - - - - - 82.6 - - - - -
09 12 3:16 am S 24.1 27.0 - - - - - - 82.9 - - - - -
09 12 3:01 am SSE 25.1 28.0 - - - - - - 82.9 - - - - -
09 12 2:46 am S 26.0 29.9 - - - - - - 83.1 - - - - -
09 12 2:31 am SSE 27.0 31.1 - - - - - - 81.7 - - - - -
09 12 2:16 am SE 27.0 29.9 - - - - - - 82.2 - - - - -
09 12 2:00 am SE 22.0 25.1 - - - - - - 79.2 - - - - -
09 12 1:46 am SSE 28.9 33.0 - - - - - - 80.2 - - - - -
09 12 1:31 am SSE 22.0 24.1 - - - - - - 81.7 - - - - -
09 12 1:16 am SE 21.0 24.1 - - - - - - 82.0 - - - - -
09 12 1:01 am SE 22.9 26.0 - - - - - - 81.5 - - - - -
09 12 12:46 am SSE 26.0 28.0 - - - - - - 81.5 - - - - -
09 12 12:31 am SSE 22.0 24.1 - - - - - - 81.3 - - - - -
09 12 12:16 am SSE 21.0 24.1 - - - - - - 81.3 - - - - -
09 12 12:01 am SSE 19.0 21.0

If these reports are valid, then the report of the ship could also be valid. I will not be the first time a system organizing in the GOM jumps to a tropical storm from the first advisory.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe a LLC is starting to close off. I'm sorry the buoy center buoy's had no northwestly wind reports. Also I can't get into that site right now. But this system could get numbered? 91L sets the goal post...

[HURAKAN]

Radar:



Nice rotation!

Latest:

[Extremeweatherguy]

The "center of circulation" looks to be stationary east of Corpus and south of Houston a couple of hundred miles offshore. Based on that satellite and radar image..as well as surface reports..I feel that a depression could be declared by 11am or 5pm today (possibly even a TS if it continues getting it's act together and stronger winds are reported). We shall see what the NHC decides to do..

[PhillyWX]

Well one thing that stands out is that fact that most of the models are now running on this system. Last night there were only 3 running.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_90.gif

(sorry, i didn't have time to upload the image on photobucket)

That model plot looks like a 5 year old got a hold of the map with a box of crayons.

[Cryomaniac]

The "center of circulation" looks to be stationary east of Corpus and south of Houston a couple of hundred miles offshore. Based on that satellite and radar image..as well as surface reports..I feel that a depression could be declared by 11am or 5pm today (possibly even a TS if it continues getting it's act together and stronger winds are reported). We shall see what the NHC decides to do..

Just as a matter of intrest, which gets which name if these are both upgraded to TS at 11? I presume this get Humberto and 91L gets Ingrid?