TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[destruction92]

Out of the 3 invests, I think this one has the most long-term potential. I also do not think this system will recurve. The ridge looks too strong and the system is far enough south that I think another caribbean storm is very possible. We will have to see what happens..

The subtropical ridge is not going to be that strong to make another hurricane the talk of the Caribbean and GOM. In the short term, a weak trough in the central Atlantic should steer 91L wnw until the ridge builds back. This may enter the extreme northern Caribbean for a short time as it threatens the northern Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico.

Right now, I think the safest bet is to take the middle path between the fish scenario and the "it's going to the Caribbean (silently implied GOM)" scenario.

And what are you implying? You know I am getting tired of your act. Know where in EWG's post did he imply anything. Are you a mind reader?

Try backing your argument with some sound data. The GDFL hasn't even run on this system yet. The BAMMS keep it shallow. Did you look at the latest GFS run? The high is forecasted to be strong.....As strong as Felix and Dean probably not but for the next few days its westward- WNW. By that time it will have organized enough for the globals to intialize it better as far as track....

Again I ask what is your issue?

Getting back on topic, 91L is probably going to be a depression (issues or no issues ).
With the synoptic pattern changing and cold fronts appearing farther south along the east coast with more frequency, I would say that 91L's threat region is from the central gulf coast to the Carolinas.

Even if 91L makes it far enough west in the Caribbean, an Ivan or Charley scenario seems plausible if another strong cold front approaches the Southeast like Tampa NWS and other long range forecasts have suggested. Central America, Mexico, Texas, and New England seem unlikely IMO for having to deal with 91L.

[jaxfladude]

Three Invests and all 3 are playing with us.....make up your minds Invests and be done with it..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would put my money on this system,,,92L would take days to form a LLC at the surface. 90L has to deal with the super unfavorable gulf of Mexico, it would not blow me away if a weak system where to form before it made landfall.

91L is developing in the area that the strong systems this season have developed. That is on the base of the subtropical ridge. I expect it has to deal with some shear and sal for the next 24 hours. Once pass 40 west, I think this should slowly become more organized.

[ROCK]

Ok that is much better... I have been around this board a long time and have seen a lot of every kind of forcasting / -removed- / dreamcasting you can think of. In our efforts to keep things civil in here, we restrain oursleves from accusing fellow posters of all of the above. There is no need for it and should not be tolerated.

but on topic- 91L has a good chance at the carib IMO. I know all about the fronts progged this week and next weekend. And your right they could be a factor. Ableit the latter might. Tuesdays front won't even make it to the coast.

Its all about timing in Sept. You miss a trough and wnw bound with a building high.

[MGC]

91L appears to have a excellent chance to become a named TC. It appears to have a MLC and convection is starting to band. Looks to be heading beween W and WNW. 91L could pose a risk to the northern islands in a few days. It has the look....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



The morning should provide a better view of 91L.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is the latest wide angle loop of the Atlantic showing 91L's convection has increased quite a bit!

[Meso]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wxman57]

Now this one looks like it could be trouble down the road. But even though it's the only disturbance in the tropics that comes close to being invest-worthy, it has a better chance of dissipating than developing. Just a strong wave to keep an eye on for now. High pressure north of it is fairly weak, which could result in a WNW track that might lift it north of the Caribbean (if it develops).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Thunder44]

Whatever low-level circulation exists here, looks very broad or elongated. I do think it can develop over the next few days though.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Correct me if I am wrong but is the system beginning to set up both poleward and equatorial outflow channels? I do notice the feathering look so to speak.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks much more organized then Gabrielle, that is for darn sure.

[HURAKAN]

Looks much more organized then Gabrielle, that is for darn sure.

2007's Tropic of Cancer Rule:

Above: Insignificant TS/STS.

Below: Pure Monsters.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/0645 UTC 9.9N 39.0W T1.0/1.0 91L

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB=Possible Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours:

[Nimbus]

Its fairly far south hard to tell how much influence the trough will have. There may be another ridge aiming this west again after the trough pulls it north a little. Even if it is not on a fish track after the first trough encounter at least the big islands may get a break.

[HURAKAN]

Makes since TC Formation could occurred within 48 hrs.