Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

60 hours

Still stucked at 60 hours.

[brunota2003]

So stuck still come thursday night/friday morning?

[cycloneye]

78 hours

Ok folks,its making the move at 78 hours.Is moving NNW.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Definitly more left than the 18z run.It almost touches Cape Hatteras.

[hurricanetrack]

This is not a long time from now. We could be looking at a real mid-Atlantic threat from this. Wow...gotta a long way to go to get there but it is getting more and more interesting.

[artist]

Derek - you say towards Bermuda then coming back? Where is it coming back too??

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't look too strong in that run. It may still be fighting shear.

[brunota2003]

This is not a long time from now. We could be looking at a real mid-Atlantic threat from this. Wow...gotta a long way to go to get there but it is getting more and more interesting.

Indeed. Looks like my dad might have to check the genny come thursday if trends keep up. I wonder if any G-IV flights will be scheduled? Hope so.

[GeneratorPower]

Doesn't look too strong in that run. It may still be fighting shear.

It had Category 5 Felix as a 999 millibar low at landfall. Intensity is meaningless in the GFS' representation.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

After moving over Cape Hatteras,it moves to the water.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

since the gfs tends to underestimate the ridge,
those in north carolina can basically take the track
further west and put it over them...JMHO...
of course that would mean very very bad weather
at least you get drought busting rain though.

[Brent]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

Very very close to Hatteras, note the high to the east, should keep going north at least for a little while.

I'm not even focusing on intensity, it had Felix an open wave!

[GeneratorPower]

This is not a long time from now. We could be looking at a real mid-Atlantic threat from this. Wow...gotta a long way to go to get there but it is getting more and more interesting.

Indeed. Looks like my dad might have to check the genny come thursday if trends keep up. I wonder if any G-IV flights will be scheduled? Hope so.

Check the genny now, not later. Then start checking it every 60 days and read that owner's manual. Better yet, do what it says! Oy vay.

[brunota2003]

This is not a long time from now. We could be looking at a real mid-Atlantic threat from this. Wow...gotta a long way to go to get there but it is getting more and more interesting.

Indeed. Looks like my dad might have to check the genny come thursday if trends keep up. I wonder if any G-IV flights will be scheduled? Hope so.

Check the genny now, not later. Then start checking it every 60 days and read that owner's manual. Better yet, do what it says! Oy vay.

We do check it every so often, it is not one of those "Oh, lets wait until the eyewall is here to check." type things Actually, I think he fired it up in August and let it run for a little while, but would rather him check again if it looks like we might take a hit. (knowing him, he'll fire it up tomorrow while I'm at school)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Following Post is NOT official. NOT sound reasoning in metoerology. Go to
the National Hurricane Center for official information, please thanks.

also cause of underestimating the ridge i feel gabrielle
goes further inland along SC/NC before moving
out to sea...im sure those models will shift
left as they materialize the ridge,
making a hurricane into the carolinas much
more likely than the current tracks show...

[cycloneye]

114 hours

Moves pararell to the coast at 114 hours.

[superfly]

ophelia redux?

[Brent]

Headed for New England? after a very close encounter with the Outer Banks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Moving more rapidly NE.

[Brent]

Out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif