Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Brent]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

Ummm... do you really think this will be only be a Cat 1? NHC is being conservative because it's weak right now. I'll be surprised if this is not a major.

[southerngale]

Wow, looking at the satellite loop, I see totally NO reason AT ALL why this should not be felix right now. in fact t numbers of 2.5, most times we will see an upgrade at 1.5 or even 2.0, There is NO excuse in my book right now.

Especially as it is threatening land at the moment. The NHC is out of line for not upgrading this.

Out of line? Disagreeing is one thing. Saying they are out of line is a little over the top.

From the rules in the Storm2K Rules & Announcements forum:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

[Coredesat]

NHC is being conservative because of the forecast rapid movement through the Caribbean, not because the system appears to be weak.

[Beam]

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

Unless you've managed get your own private pilot to fly you up into this thing tonight to get data, I'm not sure how the 2.5 estimate could be overtaken. Recon is not flying in this right now and it looks 10x better since they were up there many hours ago.

Beven already stated in the discussion why it remains to be upgraded, and frankly, I don't see what difference it makes. A 35 mph TD vs. a 40 mph storm.... it's splitting hairs, really. The watches and warnings are up, the people have been advised, and there's no reason to pull the trigger on naming it a storm without rock-solid data simply because it's close to land. That's not how the game is played, my friend. I'm personally glad the NHC is conservative, and not jumping the gun like certain other entities have with this system.

[skysummit]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

Ummm... do you really think this will be only be a Cat 1? NHC is being conservative because it's weak right now. I'll be surprised if this is not a major.

They may also be taking into account the HWRF for some reason. Who knows, I agree, it's a conservative forecast.

[jhamps10]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

Ummm... do you really think this will be only be a Cat 1? NHC is being conservative because it's weak right now. I'll be surprised if this is not a major.

yeah I'd say 75% likelyhood of this being aoab cat 3 by tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

Unless you've managed get your own private pilot to fly you up into this thing tonight to get data, I'm not sure how the 2.5 estimate could be overtaken. Recon is not flying in this right now and it looks 10x better since they were up there many hours ago.

Dvorak is trumped. Just look at Dean: based on Dvorak estimates it would not have been a Cat 5. The highest T associated with it was T6.5/6.5.

6.5/6.5 was almost the highest T number.7.0/7.0 was,which corresponds to 140 kts.

21/0615 UTC 18.6N 86.9W T7.0/7.0 DEAN

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanx guys for pointing that out. I was just reading the intensity graphical map that showed the yellow color coding for cat one and maintaining it as it approached landfall..........

Perhaps they will change that intensity map next advisory then.

[canegrl04]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

Ummm... do you really think this will be only be a Cat 1? NHC is being conservative because it's weak right now. I'll be surprised if this is not a major.

Latest NHC discussion mentions that this one has the potential to be a major in the next 5 days

[miamicanes177]

Dvorak is trumped. Just look at Dean: based on Dvorak estimates it would not have been a Cat 5. The highest T associated with it was T6.5/6.5.

Dean got a T7.0/7.0 at landfall. This corresponds to the only time he reached category 5 intensity as well.

[RL3AO]

The NHC is saying it could be a conservative forecast. You just don't know what could happen. In 48 hours we could have a 880mb Cat 5 or a 1005mb tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

Unless you've managed get your own private pilot to fly you up into this thing tonight to get data, I'm not sure how the 2.5 estimate could be overtaken. Recon is not flying in this right now and it looks 10x better since they were up there many hours ago.

I'm guessing you found one?

[Ed Mahmoud]

With watches and warnings already issued for the islands being/to be affected, is there a huge difference between 35 mph and 40 or 45 mph? No real harm done, and Beven did explain his reasoning.

[Sanibel]

It's definitely pulling up slightly. Maybe 280* or more.

[Coredesat]

Dvorak is trumped. Just look at Dean: based on Dvorak estimates it would not have been a Cat 5. The highest T associated with it was T6.5/6.5.

Dean got a T7.0/7.0 at landfall. This corresponds to the only time he reached category 5 intensity as well.

Okay, it got T7.0 at landfall. Check the T history, though, it mostly doesn't correspond with its actual intensity.

[canegrl04]

Wow Looks like historically,the majority went either in the GOM,or into the Atl.

[Beam]

Wow Looks like historically,the majority went either in the GOM,or into the Atl.

Like a certain pro-met said earlier today... it's a good thing climatology doesn't steer hurricanes.

[Coredesat]

Interesting that two of the storms on that image are basin-crossers (Irene-Olivia and Joan-Miriam).

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's definitely pulling up slightly. Maybe 280* or more.

Hmmm, the 0Z GFS has the 500 mb steering sort of pointing more WNW than W. Posting image on model thread now...