Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

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clfenwi
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC

#141 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:36 am

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 7 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY [/code]

This was the first run in which Flossie met all of the criteria for the Annular Hurricane Index. If one would like to know more about it, there is a very informative Powerpoint presentation on it.
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Chacor
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#142 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:39 am

Personally, given the current environment I don't see this being a major hurricane (maybe not even a hurricane) when it gets to its closest point from Hawaii.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#143 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:40 am

it is EPAC until 18Z when the official fix places it in the CPAC. It is currently crossing at the moment
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Cyclone1
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#144 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:46 am

Annular? Wow, that's not good news for Hawaii.
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#145 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:46 am

EP, 09, 200708111200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1270N, 13970W, , 1, 115, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, LL, I, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T,
EP, 09, 200708111200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1270N, 13970W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, LL, I, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T, DT = 6.0 BASED ON IR EYE PATTERN. NLINEEYE COLOR--
EP, 09, 200708111200, 70, ANAL, R, , 1276N, 13994W, 10, 2, 89, 2, , 2, , 34, NEQ, 100, 75, 75, 95, , , , , 2, 18, , E, CIRW, JAK, JAK, 200708110000, 200708110025, , , AMSU CD WV IR SSMI QSCT , CIRA Combined Multi-Platform Satellite Analysis
EP, 09, 200708111200, 70, ANAL, R, , 1276N, 13994W, 10, 2, 89, 2, , 2, , 50, NEQ, 60, 55, 50, 60, , , , , 2, 18, , E, CIRW, JAK, JAK, 200708110000, 200708110025, , , AMSU CD WV IR SSMI QSCT , CIRA Combined Multi-Platform Satellite Analysis
EP, 09, 200708111200, 70, ANAL, R, , 1276N, 13994W, 10, 2, 89, 2, , 2, , 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, , , , , 2, 18, , E, CIRW, JAK, JAK, 200708110000, 200708110025, , , AMSU CD WV IR SSMI QSCT , CIRA Combined Multi-Platform Satellite Analysis

CIRA analysis says 89kt. TAFB and SAB at T6.0/115 kt.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#146 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:49 am

the small core may be causing this to not be resolved that well by the microwave sats (especially by the QS)
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#147 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:51 am

WHAT A SURPRISE!!! FLOSSIE A MAJOR HURRICANE LITERALLY OVERNIGHT!!!

975
WHXX01 KMIA 111302
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070811 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070811 1200 070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 139.7W 13.0N 141.8W 12.9N 143.7W 13.2N 145.9W
BAMD 12.7N 139.7W 12.9N 142.3W 13.1N 144.7W 13.4N 146.9W
BAMM 12.7N 139.7W 12.9N 142.0W 12.9N 144.2W 13.1N 146.3W
LBAR 12.7N 139.7W 13.0N 141.8W 13.8N 144.1W 14.6N 146.0W
SHIP 115KTS 125KTS 118KTS 106KTS
DSHP 115KTS 125KTS 118KTS 106KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 1200 070815 1200 070816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 148.2W 15.4N 152.0W 16.9N 155.4W 18.2N 158.9W
BAMD 13.8N 149.2W 15.5N 153.0W 17.7N 154.7W 20.8N 154.5W
BAMM 13.6N 148.2W 14.9N 151.7W 16.3N 154.2W 17.6N 156.5W
LBAR 15.8N 147.6W 18.1N 150.1W 20.4N 151.3W 23.0N 150.9W
SHIP 94KTS 68KTS 53KTS 38KTS
DSHP 94KTS 68KTS 53KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 139.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 137.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 135.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN


359
WHXX01 KMIA 111311
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1311 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070811 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070811 1200 070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 139.7W 13.0N 141.8W 12.9N 143.7W 13.2N 145.9W
BAMD 12.7N 139.7W 12.9N 142.3W 13.1N 144.7W 13.4N 146.9W
BAMM 12.7N 139.7W 12.9N 142.0W 12.9N 144.2W 13.1N 146.3W
LBAR 12.7N 139.7W 13.0N 141.8W 13.8N 144.1W 14.6N 146.0W
SHIP 115KTS 125KTS 118KTS 106KTS
DSHP 115KTS 125KTS 118KTS 106KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 1200 070815 1200 070816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 148.2W 15.4N 152.0W 16.9N 155.4W 18.2N 158.9W
BAMD 13.8N 149.2W 15.5N 153.0W 17.7N 154.7W 20.8N 154.5W
BAMM 13.6N 148.2W 14.9N 151.7W 16.3N 154.2W 17.6N 156.5W
LBAR 15.8N 147.6W 18.1N 150.1W 20.4N 151.3W 23.0N 150.9W
SHIP 94KTS 68KTS 53KTS 38KTS
DSHP 94KTS 68KTS 53KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 139.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 137.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 135.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN
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#148 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:53 am

Image

CIMSS ADT graph.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#149 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:54 am

SHIPS usually is useless when a storm becomes annular as it places far too much emphasis on SST.

at least the deepest reds are vanishing for the moment, though the storm is becoming even more symetrical. The RI phase may finally be ending
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chadtm80

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#150 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:57 am

Image
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#151 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:12 am

Right now I would guess 125 mph and 949 mb.
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#152 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:13 am

What is the plan for the people on the islands I wonder. The NHC and the intensity models have not performed very well on how strong it would become. It makes you wonder how accurate their prediction of 60kts in 96 hours is.
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Re:

#153 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:15 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Right now I would guess 125 mph and 949 mb.


Well, the sat estimates are higher than that at 130/948.
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Re:

#154 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:16 am

miamicanes177 wrote:What is the plan for the people on the islands I wonder. The NHC and the intensity models have not performed very well on how strong it would become. It makes you wonder how accurate their prediction of 60kts in 96 hours is.


Remember, at five days out in the forecast it is subject to huge errors. I'm sure the CPHC will issue hurricane warnings if it is needed.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#155 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:18 am

based upon the shape, this could start to stabalize in the lower cat 3 or upper cat 2 range . The shear appears to be moving west in tandem with the hurricane. Not sure 25C can support upper 3 or lower 4, but cat 2 can be supported
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#156 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:18 am

The pro met on Today on NBC said that Flossie is supposed to weaken and go south of Hawaii.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#157 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:20 am

show that met the red card and send him off of the air forever

He is thinking that a hurricane is a point and forecasts are not subject to error
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#158 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:24 am

Indeed the NHC has indicated that if Flossie strengthened it would trend slightly more northwards.
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#159 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:30 am

The last storm that everyone though would affect Hawaii...

Image

Daniel dissipated soon after and only dropped rain as a remnant low.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in EPAC

#160 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:31 am

Daniel came closer than that... close enough to put the islands under a TS warning. Same with Jimena in 2003
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