Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[wxman57]

I bet Felix continues west right into the Pacific. They've been waiting for WNW for days now and it hasn't happened

I was about to make the same comment. It's heading straight west as the ECMWF predicted for the past 4-5 days. 12Z EC puts it out in the Pacific. NHC should be adjusting their track south again at 10, and reducing the inland intensity quite a lot.

[chadtm80]

I bet Felix continues west right into the Pacific. They've been waiting for WNW for days now and it hasn't happened

I was about to make the same comment. It's heading straight west as the ECMWF predicted for the past 4-5 days. 12Z EC puts it out in the Pacific. NHC should be adjusting their track south again at 10, and reducing the inland intensity quite a lot.

OT.. How is the TV??

[wxman57]

I bet Felix continues west right into the Pacific. They've been waiting for WNW for days now and it hasn't happened

I was about to make the same comment. It's heading straight west as the ECMWF predicted for the past 4-5 days. 12Z EC puts it out in the Pacific. NHC should be adjusting their track south again at 10, and reducing the inland intensity quite a lot.

OT.. How is the TV??

They were sold out of the Sony Bravia that was on sale, so I got a rain check. After all, it WAS raining all afternoon.

[rainman31]

Fry's had a 32" lcd for $399.00 today.

[Sanibel]

Starting to draw inflow from the Pacific as seen in the convection over Panama and the band associated with it.

[Brent]

I agree... EPAC bound. Same thing as Dean... models were too far north from the start, they shifted north(incorrectly) to make everyone think a possibility at a TX hit both times, only to shift back south and still be too far north. Didn't the Euro predict a Nicaragua hit 2-3 days ago?

I'm starting to look for Gabrielle now. Leading candidate is 99L.

[KBBOCA]

Sanibel, thanks for that heads' up. Felix is looking pretty impressive again, at least on this IR shot.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Sanibel]

Eye clearing out on last frame.

More WNW now.

Red IR improving around eyewall.

[Coredesat]

Google Earth tells me that Puerto Cabezas (pop. 60,000) could get a direct hit from Felix if it continues on its current course.

[RL3AO]

It just goes to show why Cat 5 landfalls are so rare. You need perfect timing.

[Extremecane]

latest image it really wraps the whole red around



Possible another strong intensification?

[Praxus]

Definitely looks like its intensifying on sat.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snip from intermediate advisory


AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

[RL3AO]

latest image it really wraps the whole red around



Possible another strong intensification?

This hurricane brought to you by the number 9.

[jaxfladude]

Snip from intermediate advisory


AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like I said, I expect that Felix's core got kicked hard by some mid level shear. In which weaken it. Why because there has been no ewrc based on recon and what else would explain what happen. Now that it is moving over warmer tchp, lets see if it can restrengthen. Intill the recon gets back into the system that may have a micro eye or at least seems to. We will see, I would think the tchp increase over the eddie would be able to restrengthen it some.

[jaxfladude]

latest image it really wraps the whole red around



Possible another strong intensification?

This hurricane brought to you by the number 9.

We all should be glad at least there is no "6" near the "9" like shape in Felix...

[Sanibel]

Finally! The WNW wobble I was looking for all day! If this trends it will be a totally different story.

[RL3AO]

Any signs this can pull a Dean and do something big during its final 12-18 hours over the highest TCHP?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah if I had to say one way or the other, that "9" shape and the thicking of the convection with the widing and clearing of that eye. Is a clear sign of strengthing.

Also the 85h data shows that the western side about 5 hours ago was gone...Wow.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html